Stocks Finish Sharply Higher on US-Iran Ceasefire

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed up +2.51%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +2.85%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +2.90%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +2.52%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +2.90%.

Global stock indexes settled sharply higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq 100 posting 4-week highs.  The easing of geopolitical tensions bolstered market sentiment and fueled a risk-on rally in equity markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, and Iran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  Crude oil prices sank by more than -15% to a 1.5-week low on the news, easing inflation concerns and sparking a rally in global government bond markets, with the German 10-year Bund yield and the 10-year T-note yield falling to 3-week lows.

It remains to be seen if there will be a permanent end to the Iran war.  Iran has shown little willingness to accept US demands to eliminate its nuclear program or retire its ballistic missile arsenal.  President Trump confirmed the US received a ten-point Iranian proposal that will serve as the basis for future negotiations.  The US and Iran have confirmed participation in peace talks in Islamabad on Friday.  Iran has previously called for the lifting of sanctions and compensation for war damages. The Associated Press reported that the ceasefire plan includes allowing Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran using the proceeds for reconstruction.

Crude oil prices (CLK26) remain volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses amid news headlines about Iran.  Crude prices plummeted -15% on Wednesday to a 1.5-week low after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that more than 40 energy sites across nine Middle Eastern countries have been "severely or very severely" damaged and require lengthy repairs.  The IEA warned that even if the war were to end within a few weeks, it would still take time for normal flows through Hormuz to resume.  There are more than 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf, with over 1,000 vessels waiting on both sides of the strait to transit. Before the war, the average daily volume of ships transiting through the strait was about 135.

US MBA mortgage applications fell -0.8% in the week ended April 3, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +1.1% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -2.8%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -6 bp to 6.51% from 6.57% in the prior week.

The minutes of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting stated that "The vast majority of participants judged that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment were elevated, and the majority of participants noted that these risks had increased with developments in the Middle East."

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets settled sharply higher on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a 5-week high and closed up +4.97%.  China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 2.5-week high and closed up +2.69%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a 1-month high and closed up +5.39%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Wednesday closed up +12 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -0.8 bp to 4.285%.  June T-notes rallied to a 3-week high on Wednesday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3-week low of 4.228%.  T-notes moved higher on Wednesday as the US-Iran ceasefire knocked WTI crude oil prices down more than -15%, easing inflation concerns. 

T-notes fell back from their best levels on Wednesday after stocks rallied sharply, which reduced safe-haven demand for government debt. Also, weak demand for the Treasury’s $39 billion auction of 10-year T-notes weighed on T-note prices as the auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2,43, below the 10-auction average of 2.50. 

European government bond yields fell sharply on Wednesday.  The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 3-week low of 2.903% and finished down -14.0 bp to 2.944%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 3-week low of 4.678% and finished down -19.3 bp to 4.711%.

Eurozone Feb retail sales fell -0.2% m/m, right on expectations and the biggest decline in 9 months.

Eurozone Feb PPI fell -3.0% y/y, right on expectations and the biggest decline in 16 months.

German Feb factory orders rose +0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of +3.0% m/m.

Swaps are discounting a 32% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks moved sharply higher on Wednesday to support gains in the broader market.  Intel (INTC) closed up more than +11% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Sandisk (SNDK) and Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +9%.  Also, Western Digital (WDC), Applied Materials (AMAT), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed up more than +8%, andKLA Corp (KLAC) and Micron Technology (MU) closed up more than +7%.  In addition, Analog Devices (ADI) and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) closed up more than +5%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Marvell Technology (MRVL), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed up more than +4%.

Airline stocks and cruise line operators rallied on Wednesday amid the -15% plunge in crude oil prices, which lowers fuel costs and boosts corporate profits.  Carnival (CCL) closed up more than +10%, and Alaska Air Group (ALK) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed up more than +7%.  Also, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed up more than +6%, and American Airlines Group (AAL) closed up more than +5%.  In addition, Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) closed up more than +3%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks moved higher on Wednesday, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +3% at a 3-week high.  Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed up more than +13%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) closed up more than +6%.  Also, Strategy (MSTR) closed up more than +3%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed up more than +2%.

Homebuilders rallied on Wednesday after the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3-week low, which lowers mortgage rates and supports housing demand.  KB Home (KBH) closed up more than +6%, and DR Horton (DHI), PulteGroup (PHM), and Toll Brothers (TOL) closed up more than +4%.  Also, Lennar (LEN) closed up more than+3%. 

Mining stocks moved higher on Wednesday, with gold up more than +1%, copper prices up more than +3%, and silver prices up more than +4%.  Southern Copper (SCCO) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed up more than +7%, and Anglogold Ashanti (AU) closed up more than +6%.  Also, Coeur Mining (CDE) and Newmont Corp (NEM) closed up more than +3%, Barrick Mining (B) closed up more than +2%, and Hecla Mining (HL) closed up more than +1%. 

Energy producers and energy service providers fell sharply on Wednesday with the -15% plunge in crude oil prices.  APA Corp (APA) closed down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) closed down more than -5%.  Also, Chevron (CVX) closed down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Diamondback Energy (FANG), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Devon Energy (DVN), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Valero Energy (VLO) closed down more than -4%.  In addition, Phillips 66 (PSX) closed down more than -3%, and Halliburton (HAL) closed down more than -2%. 

Software stocks were under pressure on Wednesday after Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents and Meta Platforms unveiled a new artificial intelligence model.  Workday (WDAY) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed down more than -6%.  Also, Intuit (INTU) closed down more than -5%, and Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) closed down more than -3%.   

Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) closed up more than +25% after Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $68. 

Levi Strauss (LEVI) closed up more than +10% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of 42 cents, better than the consensus of 37 cents, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $1.42 to $1.48 from a previous estimate of $1.40 to $1.46. 

Earnings Reports(4/9/2026)

Byrna Technologies Inc (BYRN), Lifezone Metals Ltd (LZM), MainStreet Bancshares Inc (MNSB), Neogen Corp (NEOG), PTC Inc (PTC), RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc (RICK), Simply Good Foods Co/The (SMPL), Simulations Plus Inc (SLP), WD-40 Co (WDFC).