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Softs Futures Prices

Fri, Aug 23rd, 2019
[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Fri, Aug 23rd, 2019.
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    Alerts History • 23-Aug-2019 07:56:05 AM – CHINA SAYS WILL IMPOSE EXTRA 5% TARIFFS ON U.S. SOYBEAN FROM SEPT 1 • 23-Aug-2019 07:56:54 [...]

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Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Close Lower on a Slide in Crude Prices and a Slump in the Brazilian Real

Oct NY world sugar #11 (SBV19) on Friday closed down by -0.11 (-0.95%), and Oct ICE London white sugar #5 (SWV19) closed down by -1.70 (-0.54%). Sugar prices moved lower Friday on weakness in crude oil and a slide in the Brazilian real. Escalation of the U.S./China trade war sent crude prices down to a 2-week low Friday after China announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods. Weaker crude prices undercut ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. The Brazilian real tumbled to an 11-week low against the dollar Friday, which will encourage export selling by Brazil's sugar producers. Sugar prices also fell back Friday's after Unica reported that showed sugar production in Brazil's Center-South region in the first half of Aug rose by +24.27% y/y to 2.126 MMT, although cumulative sugar production in the 2019-20 marketing year through mid-Aug are down -6.3% y/y to 15.4574 MMT. Sugar prices on Tuesday posted 2-week lows on the outlook for robust sugar production in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer. Researcher Marex Spectron said Monday that beneficial weather could boost India 2019/20 sugar production to 30 MMT, which would be 6% higher than the 28.2 MMT estimate from the Indian Sugar Mills Association. Ample monsoon rains in India should benefit India's sugar crop after India's Meteorological Department on Aug 8 said India's July monsoon rains were 298.4 mm, 4.6% more than the long-term average. Another positive for sugar was the action by India's cabinet on July 24 to create a buffer stock of 4 million MT of sugar for 1-year starting Aug 1 in an attempt to lock up supply and support domestic sugar prices. Big Picture Sugar Market Factors: World sugar production in 2019/20 (Apr/Mar) will climb +1% y/y to 180.7 MMT (USDA) after the +0.6% y/y rise to a record 185.2 MMT in 2018/19 (ISO). The world sugar surplus in 2018/19 fell to 1.832 MMT from the larger 2017/18 surplus of 7.3 MMT (ISO). Production by Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, in 2019/20 will climb by +17.4% y/y to 34.1 MMT, after production in 2018/19 (Apr/Mar) fell -17.2% y/y to an 11-year low of 31.4 MMT (Conab). Production by India, the world's second largest sugar producer, in 2019/20 will fall -15% y/y to a 3-year low of 28 MT due to drought and a delayed monsoon season (India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd).
Coffee Prices Settle Lower on a Weak Brazilian Real and Escalation of Trade Tensions

Dec arabica coffee (KCZ19) on Friday closed down -1.25 (-1.28%), and Jan ICE robusta coffee (RMU19) closed down -14 (-1.03%). Coffee prices fell back Friday on weakness in the Brazilian real along with escalation of the U.S./China trade war, which adds to concern about the global economy and demand for commodities, including coffee. The Brazilian real tumbled -1.10% Friday to an 11-month low against the dollar. A weaker real is negative for coffee prices as it encourages export selling by Brazil's coffee producers. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China also escalated Friday, which is negative for global growth and commodity demand, after China announced plans to impose additional tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. A bullish factor for arabica coffee was Rabobank's projection on Thursday for a global 2019/20 arabica coffee deficit of -5.5 mln bags, the highest in 7 years. Rabobank also boosted its 2019/20 global coffee deficit estimate to -4.1 mln bags from a May projection of a -1.8 mln bag deficit. Coffee prices also have carry-over support from Tuesday when Inmet, Brazil's meteorology institute, said that there is an increased chance for an El Nino event by year-end that could bring below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures to Brazil's coffee-growing areas in January. Sep arabica coffee on Tuesday fell to a 3-month nearest-futures low after researcher Marex Spectron said Brazil's coffee exports remain on a record pace. Marex predicts Brazil Aug coffee exports of 3.4 mln bags which would bring Brazil's coffee exports in the first two months of the 2019/20 crop year to a record 6.8 mln bags, up +650,000 bags above the previous record in the 2014/15 year. Coffee supplies are on the rise and continue to undercut coffee prices. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) on Aug 5 raised its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate by +26% to 3.92 mln bags from a July estimate of a 3.11 mln bag surplus. Also, the Columbian Coffee Growers Federation reported Aug 5 that July coffee production in Columbia, the world's second-biggest arabica producer, jumped +25% y/y to 1.3 mln bags. Recent dry weather in Brazil has been favorable for harvesting and negative for coffee prices after Safras & Mercado reported Aug 8 that Brazil's coffee harvest was 93% completed as of Aug 6, ahead of last year's 88% level and well ahead of the 5-year average of 84%. In a supportive factor for robusta coffee, Vietnam's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said Aug 14 that the Central Highlands, Vietnam's coffee-growing region, will receive 20%-40% less rain than average this month. In a bearish factor for robusta coffee, Vietnam's General Department of Vietnam Customs on July 28 reported that Vietnam July coffee exports rose +24.2% y/y to 165,000 MT, although cumulative Jan-Jul coffee exports fell by -7.6% y/y to 1.084 MMT. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta beans. Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: World coffee production (Oct/Sep) in 2018/19 will climb +1.5% y/y to a record 167.747 mln bags with global consumption +2.0% y/y to 164.636 mln bags (ICO). The world coffee surplus in 2018/19 will fall to 3.11 mln bags from the mildly larger 2017/18 surplus of 3.836 mln bags (ICO). USDA projects global 2018/19 coffee production will climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks will increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags.
Cocoa Prices Settle Mixed as a Weak Dollar Boosts NY Cocoa

Dec ICE NY cocoa (CCZ19) on Friday closed up +8 (+0.36%), and Dec ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ19) closed down -6 (-0.35%). Cocoa prices settled mixed Friday with Dec NY cocoa at a new 1-week high. NY cocoa moved higher as a slide in the dollar index to a 1-week low Friday sparked short covering in NY cocoa. Cocoa prices also have support on the outlook for continued strong cocoa demand from Asia. Data last month showed Q2 Asia cocoa grindings rose +16.3% y/y to 215,574 MT, a record for a Q2, and the Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA) said Thursday that it expects Asian cocoa demand will continue to strengthen. Data from the CAA shows Asia cocoa processing has jumped by 30% in the three years through the end of 2018. Dec NY cocoa on Tuesday tumbled to an 8-1/4 month low and Dec London cocoa fell to a 3-month low. Cocoa prices were undercut by the outlook for a bumper cocoa harvest in the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer. Commerzbank said Tuesday that favorable growing conditions will probably boost the Ivory Coast 2018/19 cocoa crop toward "a record high of 2.3 MMT." Cocoa sent to Ivory Coast ports totaled 2.11 MMT cumulatively from Oct 1 through July 31, up +15.3% from the same time last year. However, supplies were limited in August after Monday's report that Ivory Coast farmers sent only 4,699 MT of cocoa to ports from Aug 12-18, down -19.6% from the same time last year. A positive factor for cocoa prices is reduced production from Ghana, the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, after the Ghana Cocoa Board on Monday said that cocoa purchased from farmers totaled 785,107 MT from Oct 1-July 18, down -6.3% y/y. The 2018/19 cocoa main-crop in Ghana is expected to fall to a 3-year low of 800,000 MT due to an outbreak of the swollen shoot cocoa disease. Current cocoa supplies have tightened after ICE-monitored cocoa inventories fell to a 5-1/2 month low of 4.063 million bags on Thursday. Big Picture Cocoa Market Factors: World cocoa production in 2018/19 will climb +3.9% y/y to a record high of 4.834 MMT and global cocoa grindings will climb +3.4% y/y to a record high of 4.750 MMT (ICCO). The world cocoa surplus in 2018/19 will climb +2.1% y/y to +36,000 MT from the 2017/18 surplus of +9,000 MT. Ivory Coast 2018/19 cocoa production (main crop Oct-Mar; mid-crop May-Aug) will climb +9.5% y/y to a record 2.15 MMT and Ghana 2018/19 cocoa production (main crop Sep-Mar; mid-crop May Aug) will decline -0.6% y/y to 900,00 MMT (ICCO).
Cotton In the Red on Friday

Cotton futures are trading 25 to 83 points lower at midday. The dollar is strong, at near 1 year highs. China announced addition tariffs on several US ag goods this morning in retaliation to the US tariff implementation on $300 billion in Chinses goods in September and December. Export commitments of US upland cotton are now 49% of the USDA export projection, with the average at 43% for this time. The Cotlook A Index was higher 70 points on August 22 at 71.20 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is now 52.57 cents/lb, good through next Thursday. OCT 19 Cotton is at 58.62, down 25 points, DEC 19 Cotton is at 58.11, down 83 points MAR 20 Cotton is at 59.08, down 78 points MAY 20 Cotton is at 60.16, down 60 points --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
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