Softs Futures Prices
- Keep A Close Eye On Coffee
- Where Weather Matters Most (What the **** is that Sound?) 9/24/2020
September 24, 2020 What is the Sound of One Market Falling? ...or, is it about to Rise from the Ashes? Jim Roemer's commodity opinion
- Cotton (CT) Tries Extending 5 Month Plus Upchannel
Cotton (CT) is catching a bid going into today's European morning, trying to complete nearly 2 weeks of consolidation. Significantly, CT appears to...
- Livestock Report
Hogs and Feeders consolidate and cattle higher
Futures Market News and Commentary
Cotton futures ended the Friday session up 36 to 69 points. For Dec, that ended the week’s move at plus 29 points. Revived hopes for a stimulus bill out of Washington boosted equities and spending ideas. The weekly CoT update had Cotton spec traders 1,483 contracts more net long, at 51,311 as of 9/22. New buying was noted as managed money open interest increased 3,349 contracts wk/wk. WTD cash cotton sales on The Seam were 10,118 bales at a wtd average price of 53.91 cents/lb. Spot sales from USDA’s Weekly Cotton Market Review were 11,437 bales at an average price of 59.82 cents. LW sales were 33,704 bales for 59.84 cents. The Cotlook A index was 25 points lower for Sept 24, at 70.60 c/lb. The AWP for cotton is now 50.45 cents/lb. FSA increased this week’s LDP to 1.55 cents.
Oct 20 Cotton closed at 64.66, up 69 points,
Dec 20 Cotton closed at 65.95, up 49 points
Mar 21 Cotton closed at 66.66, up 41 points
May 21 Cotton closed at 6... Read more
Dec ICE NY cocoa (CCZ20) on Friday closed down -31 (-1.19%). Dec ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ20) closed down -24 (-1.27%).
Cocoa prices on Friday settled lower as a rally in the dollar index to a 2-month high undercut most commodity prices, including cocoa.
Cocoa prices have pushed higher over the past month, with NY cocoa climbing to a 6-1/2 month high in early-Sep on concern about political unrest in the Ivory Coast. On Monday, Henri Bedie, the main opposition candidate for Ivory Coast President next month, called for civil disobedience to stop Ivory Coast President Ouattara from seeking a third term. The markets are concerned that any civil unrest could disrupt cocoa supplies ahead of the country's presidential election on Oct 31. The Ivory Coast government last Tuesday extended a ban on public protests until Sep 30 "in order to prevent disturbances of public order." At least a dozen people have been killed in the Ivory Coast and several hundred injured since Ivory Coas... Read more
Dec arabica coffee (KCZ20) on Friday closed up +2.50 (+2.25%). Jan ICE Robusta coffee (RMF21) closed up +8 (+0.58%).
Coffee prices on Friday moved higher on concern about dry conditions in Brazil. Data from Somar Meteorologia on Monday showed that rain in Minas Gerais measured 4.6 mm in the past week, or only 27% of the historical average, and forecasts for this upcoming week are for the dry conditions in Brazil to persist.
Weakness in the Brazilian real is negative for arabica coffee prices as the real fell -0.60% on Friday against the dollar, trading just above Thursday's 4-week low. A weaker real encourages export-selling by Brazil's coffee producers.
Coffee prices on Wednesday dropped to 2-month lows on signs of bigger coffee supplies after Conab on Tuesday said it sees Brazil 2020 arabica coffee output at 47.4 mln bags, up +38% y/y and above a previous estimate of 46 mln bags. Demand concerns also weighed on coffee as a resurgence of the global Covid pandem... Read more
Oct NY world sugar #11 (SBV20) on Friday closed up +0.16 (+1.25%). Dec London white sugar #5 (SWZ20) closed up +2.30 (+0.61%).
Sugar prices on Friday settled moderately higher with London sugar at a new 1-month high. Concern about the sugar crop in Thailand, the world's second-biggest sugar exporter, pushed sugar prices higher on Friday. The Thailand Sugar Mills Corp. said on Friday that Thailand 2020/21 sugar production will fall -13% y/y to an 11-year low of 7.2 MMT as dry weather this year ravaged cane plantations.
Another positive factor for sugar was the action by the U.S. on Tuesday to raise Brazil's sugar export quotas to the U.S. by 80,000 MT to 310,000 MT. Also, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) on Tuesday cut its Australia 2020/21 sugar production estimate to 4.3 MMT from an April forecast of 4.5 MMT and to cut its Australia 2020/21 sugar export estimate to 3.40 MMT from an April forecast of 3.54 MMT.
A bearish factor for sugar was the acti... Read more