Softs Futures Prices
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Although we turned the calendar to a new year, most of our market stories remain the same.
- Coffee-Failed Flowering and Dry Weather Returning
An historic dry and hot spring season in Brazil caused a failed flowering for Coffee. With dry weather returning the stakes are heating up.
- Arabica Coffee (KC) Readying to Resume Rally Since Nov
Arabica Coffee (KC) surged another more than 1.5% yesterday, recovering after a brief dip below the psychologically key 1.25 whole figure level. Significantly,...
- MLK Trading Schedule, Monthly Soybeans Chart, & Support and Resistance Levels 1.15.21
MLK Trading Schedule, Monthly Soybeans Chart, & Support and Resistance Levels 1.15.21
- Camping World Holdings ($CWH) Power Of The Blue Box
Back in Late September, I analyzed Camping World Holdings. At the time, I was expecting the correction to complete soon, in the extreme area. Here's...
- Forecasting The Bounce Higher In GDX From Blue Box Area
In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 4 hour Elliott Wave Charts of GDX, which we presented to members. In...
Futures Market News and Commentary
Closing cotton prices were lower across the old crop futures with 38 to 45 point losses. New crop Dec closed 22 points higher. CFTC data showed cotton specs reduced their net long by 1,010 contracts to 69,702 on the week ending 1/12. Commercial’s net position was 144,177 contracts net short after 5,190 new longs were added. USDA’s weekly Cotton Market Review showed 79,659 bales were sold on the week ending 01/14. The average cash price for the week was 76.52 cents/lb, which was the highest weekly cash price since Sept 13, 2018. The Cotlook A index pulled back 3 quarters of a cent to 87.35. The USDA AWP was raised 3.98 cents to 63.23 cents/lb.Mar 21 Cotton closed at 80.7, down 45 points,May 21 Cotton closed at 81.62, down 38 pointsJul 21 Cotton closed at 82.37, down 38 pointsDec 21 Cotton closed at 77.02, up 22 points
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Mar ICE NY cocoa (CCH21) on Friday closed up +27 (+1.08%), and Mar ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH21) closed up +39 (+2.30%).
Cocoa prices on Friday posted moderate gains, with NY cocoa at a 1-week high and London cocoa at a 1-1/2 week high. Cocoa prices rallied Friday on better-than-expected global Q4 grinding data. Asia Q4 cocoa grindings fell -4.2% y/y to 217,546 MT, a smaller decline than expectations of -9% y/y. Also, North American Q4 cocoa processing unexpectedly rose +7% y/y to 118,043 MT, stronger than expectations of a decline of -2.5% y/y and the highest for a Q4 in 5 years. On Thursday, data showed that Malaysia's Q4 cocoa grindings fell -2.5% yy/ to 87.163 MT and that Malaysia's total 2020 cocoa grindings dropped -8.1% y/y to 315,911 MT.
Another positive for cocoa prices was news of stronger demand after Thursday's data from Ivory Coast's Gepex, a group of six of the world's biggest cocoa grinders, showed that Gepex Dec cocoa processing rose +3.7%... Read more
Mar arabica coffee (KCH21) on Friday closed up +0.80 (+0.63%), and March ICE Robusta coffee (RMH21) closed up +21 (+1.58%).
Coffee prices on Friday pushed higher, with arabica coffee at a 4-month nearest-futures high and robusta coffee at a 1-week high on concern that dry conditions in Brazil will worsen. Maxar late Thursday said that dry conditions would intensify across Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica-growing region, over the next 6 to 10 days, which could cause strain to coffee trees and harm cherry growth.
Arabica prices were already underpinned by new Brazil coffee production estimates. Marex Solutions on Thursday estimated that Brazil's 2021 arabica coffee output would fall between 30% and 50% due to excessive heat and scant rainfall in Minas Gerais. However, Marex Solutions on Thursday projected that Brazil's 2021 robusta crop would increase by 10% to 15% versus last year's harvest.
Coffee prices have support on Tuesday's pro... Read more
March NY world sugar #11 (SBH21) on Friday closed down -0.22 (-1.32%), and March London white sugar #5 (SWH21) closed down -2.70 (-0.58%).
Sugar prices on Friday settled moderately lower as a rally in the dollar index to a 3-1/2 week high and a -2% plunge in crude oil prices sparked long liquidation pressure in sugar futures.
Sugar prices earlier rallied to 3-1/2 year nearest-future highs on Thursday on the outlook for tighter global sugar supplies. Citigroup on Thursday raised its 2021 sugar price estimate to 14.7 cents/lb from 13.6 cents/lb, citing "disappointment in the scale" of the government of India's subsidy for sugar exports.
Recent strength in crude oil prices benefits ethanol prices and is bullish for sugar prices. Higher crude oil prices encourage Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar production, thus curbing sugar supplies.
Smaller sugar output from Thailand,... Read more