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Softs Futures Prices

Wed, Apr 24th, 2019
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  • Softs Report 04/24/19

    COTTON General Comments: Cotton was lower before the May deliveries that start today and on ideas of improving weather. The lack of positive demand [...]...

  • Orange Juice Looks To Break 100

    Stay Short


    ARE WE THERE YET WITH CORN? Since the bear market started in 2012, corn finally calmed down in 2014 and has gone sideways since, boring all of us .........

  • Softs Report 04/23/19

    Crop Progress Date 21-Apr 7-Apr 2018 Avg Cotton Planted 9 7 10 9 Corn Planted 6 3 5 12 Soybeans Planted [...]

  • Softs Report 04/22/19

    DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Apr 18 For the week ended Apr 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in [...]

  • Is it Time to Get Ready For A Sugar HIgh?

    Looking at a mid to longer term analysis of the July Sugar Market

Futures Market News and Commentary

Cotton Market lower at Midday, Pressured by Outside Markets

Cotton futures are trading 55 to 87 points in the red at midday. The Dollar is showing continued strength on Wednesday, with crude oil lower. There were 114 deliveries against May on Wednesday. USDA will update their weekly Export Sales report on Thursday, with a close eye kept on Chinese business. The Cotlook A Index was down 50 points at 87.75 on April 23. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 68.88, effective through Thursday. May 19 Cotton is at 76.02, down 55 points, Jul 19 Cotton is at 77.17, down 74 points Oct 19 Cotton is at 76.1, down 87 points Dec 19 Cotton is at 76.230, down 62 points --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Cocoa Prices Slump for a Second Day on Strong Ivory Coast Cocoa Production

July ICE NY cocoa (CCN19) this morning is down by -56 (-2.44%). July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN19) is down by -34 (-1.96%). Cocoa prices sold off for a second day today with July NY cocoa at a 4-week low and July London cocoa at a 3-week low. Negative carry-over from Tuesday's strong cocoa output data from the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, has fueled fund selling in cocoa futures. Tuesday's data showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 1.80 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Apr 21, up +16.1% from the same time last year. Cocoa output is also robust in Ghana, the world's second largest cocoa producer, after the Ghana Cocoa Board reported last Thursday that cocoa purchases from Ghana farmers for the first 26 weeks of the harvest (Oct 5 through April 4) rose +6.2% y/y to 698,553 MT. Another negative for cocoa is ample precipitation in West Africa that benefits the cocoa crops in the Ivory Coast and Ghana after satellite imagery from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center showed normal to above-normal rainfall in West Africa during April 7-13. Current supplies are robust as cocoa stockpiles held at ICE-monitored warehouses are just below a 7-month high of 4.327 million bags from April 1. Cocoa prices have underlying support from strong global demand. The North American Confectioners Association last Thursday reported that North American Q1 cocoa grindings rose +2.0% y/y to 121,129 MT, stronger than expectations of unchanged. The Cocoa Association of Asia reported last Wednesday that Q1 Asia cocoa grindings jumped +9.5% y/y to 208,388 MT, well above consensus of a +4% y/y gain and the biggest Q1 increase since the data began in 2011. The European Cocoa Association reported last Tuesday that European Q1 cocoa grindings rose +3.3% y/y to 370,359 MT, stronger than consensus of a +1.8% y/y increase.
Coffee Prices Are Mixed as a Weaker Brazilian Real Weighs on Arabica Prices

May arabica coffee (KCK19) this morning is down by -0.55 (+0.44%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) is up by +2 (+0.15%). Coffee prices are mixed this morning. May arabica coffee is under pressure today due to weakness in the Brazilian real against the dollar. A weaker real encourages exports from Brazil's coffee producers. May arabica coffee slumped to a 14-1/2 year nearest-futures low last Thursday and May robusta coffee matched its 3-year low from April 12 on Tuesday as abundant global supplies keep coffee prices on the defensive. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) on Apr 4 raised its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate to 3.1 mln bags from a prior estimate of 2.29 mln bags. Current supplies are robust as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are modestly below the 4-3/4 year high of 2.503 mln bags from Mar 25. Last Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed that funds boosted their net-short arabica coffee positions by 7,557 to a 6-month high of 81,668 short positions in the week ended April 16, and that funds boosted their ICE robusta net-short positions by +3,786 to a 9-month high of 36,521 contracts. A positive factor for robusta coffee was last Wednesday's data from Vietnam's General Department of Customs showing that Vietnam Jan-Mar coffee exports fell -13.3% y/y to 488,648 MT. Vietnam is the world's largest grower of robusta coffee beans. Last Tuesday's data from the Green Coffee Association showed that U.S. Mar green inventories fell -2.5% m/m and -7.0% y/y to 6.11 mln bags. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing region, was 44.2 mm in the past week or 388% of the historical average.
Sugar Prices Move Lower on Weakness in the Brazilian Real

July NY world sugar #11 (SBN19) this morning is down -0.14 (-1.09%) and Aug ICE London white sugar #5 (SWQ19) is down -2.20 (-0.65%). Weakness in the Brazilian real against the dollar today is pushing sugar prices lower as the weak real encourages exports from Brazil's sugar producers. Losses were limited on carry-over support from Tuesday's data from Conab, Brazil's national crop agency, that showed Brazil 2018/19 sugar output in the marketing year ended March 31 fell -17.2% y/y to an 11-year low of 31.4 MMT. Conab also reported that the amount of sugar cane diverted to sugar production in 2018/19 fell to a record low of 36.4% versus 45.9% in 2017/18, and that Brazil's 2018/19 ethanol production rose +23.3% y/y to a record 33.6 bln liters. A rally in crude oil prices Tuesday to a new 5-3/4 month high is another bullish factor for sugar prices. Higher crude oil prices benefit ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing to ethanol production rather than sugar production, thus curbing sugar supplies. Brazil hydrous ethanol prices last Thursday rose to 1.9846 reals per liter, the highest since the data began in 2000. Weakness in GBP/USD is a negative factor of Aug London sugar prices with GBP/USD down to a new 2-month low today, since London sugar is priced in British pounds. Huge short-positions in white London sugar futures may spur short-covering in London sugar prices after last Friday's Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed that fund managers boosted their net-short ICE London sugar positions by 1,451 contracts to a record 14,668 contracts in the week ended April 16, the most since the data began in 2011. Another supportive factor for sugar was last Thursday’s projection from the USDA's FAS that Thailand's 2019/20 sugar output, the world's fourth-largest, will fall by -2% y/y to 13.9 MMT.
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