Softs Futures Prices
- Coffee Prices Hit A 4 Week High
Possible bottom at hand
- How High Are Cotton Prices Going ?
The tide has turned
- Where Weather Matters Most (Possible Explosion in Commodities) 7/3/2020
July 3, 2020 Jim Roemer's Holiday Weekend Update
- Raw Sugar (SB) Retesting 50% Fib Retrace of Feb-Apr Slide
Raw Sugar (SB) edged higher yesterday, gaining for a 4th straight day, and closing above the psychologically key .12 whole figure level. Significantly,...
- Paragon Investments' Futures File: Corn, Cocoa & Gold
This week's Independence Day special looks at the explosive corn, cocoa & gold markets.
- Mooses in the Markets - Increase in Covid Cases/Decrease in Demand for Cocoa
As the world, especially in the United States, sees an increase in Covid cases some commodity prices are weakening.
Futures Market News and Commentary
Cotton futures climbed back from midday lows, and closed 19 to 47 points higher in the front months. Old crop futures outgained the deferred contracts and left July inverted to Dec again, the July premium to December was 0.10 cents/lb. Dec to Mar ’21 carry was 72 points on Thursday. That came via 67,296 RBs of old crop sales and 246k RBs of new crop (mostly to China). Cotton exports from the report were 276,959 RBs. That is down 13% wk/wk and 19% below the same week last MY. China was the destination for 38% of the week’s shipments, MYTD China has been the destination for 15% of exports. Wednesday sales on the online cotton trading platform The Seam were the largest for a single day since May 08. The 8,347 bales went for an average gross price of 59.68 cents/lb. The weeks total through Wednesday was 10,735 bales at a wtd average price of 57.59 cents/lb. Tuesday went for an average gross price of 53.18 cents/lb. The July 1 Cotlook A index was 90 points stronger at 68.85 c/lb. The AWP... Read more
Sep ICE NY cocoa (CCU20) on Thursday closed up +10 (+0.46%). Sep ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU20) closed up +15 (+0.94%).
Cocoa prices on Thursday settled higher after an early decline in the dollar index to a 1-week low sparked short-covering in cocoa futures. On Wednesday, NY cocoa plunged to a 21-month low, and London cocoa dropped to a 17-month low. Fund selling has driven cocoa prices lower this week on concern that the resurgence of the coronavirus will keep lockdowns in place for longer and decimate chocolate demand.
The outlook for robust cocoa supplies is also weighing on cocoa prices. Citigroup last Thursday said the physical surplus for the Ivory Coast 2020/21 cocoa crop might be as large as 300,000 MT, double the previous projection of 150,000 MT. Also, Citigroup said Asian, North American, and European Q2 cocoa processing probably contracted on a year-on-year basis due to the coronavirus pandemic, and that U.S. chocolate sales in Q2 are on track to decline by 7... Read more
Sep arabica coffee (KCU20) on Thursday closed down -0.80 (-0.77%). Sep ICE Robusta coffee (DFU0) closed down -1 (-0.17%).
Coffee prices on Thursday closed lower on concern that the worsening pandemic will keep lockdowns in place for longer, undercutting coffee demand from restaurants and cafes. The U.S on Wednesday reported that new virus infections climbed by a record 51,374, up +1.95% from Tuesday. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 10.834 million globally, with deaths exceeding 519,000.
Robusta coffee recovered from its worst levels Thursday on tighter supplies after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories on Thursday fell to a 14-1/2 month low.
On Wednesday, arabica coffee climbed to a 1-month high and robusta coffee to a 2-week high on signs of smaller global coffee supplies. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) on Wednesday reported that global Oct-Jun coffee exports fell -4.7% y/y to 83.8 mln bags.
Brazilian weather concerns are... Read more
Oct NY world sugar #11 (SBV20) on Thursday closed up +0.07 (+0.58%), and Oct London white sugar #5 (SWV20) closed down -2.70 (-0.75%).
Sugar prices on Thursday settled mixed with NY sugar at a 1-1/2 week high. NY sugar recovered from early losses Thursday and matched Wednesday's 1-1/2 week high on strength in crude oil. Crude oil rallied to a 1-week high Thursday, which benefits ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar production, which will curb sugar supplies.
Sugar prices on Thursday initially opened weaker, and London sugar closed lower, as the outlook for adequate supplies weighed on prices. NY sugar on Monday fell to a 4-week low on continued concern about increased sugar production in India. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last Thursday that India's 2020/21 sugar production would climb +17.7% y/y to 32.01 MMT as sugar acreage is increased by +8.1% to 5.23 mln hectar... Read more