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Futures Market News and Commentary
Cotton futures show a recovery, with nearby contracts as up by as much as 20 points with gains tailing off through time. The USDA updated weekly export sales for upland cotton, revealing that for the week ending 11/14 a total of 227,600 RB were sold, which was 35.04% behind last week’s multi-year high for weekly sales. That was the third largest for this MY. Another 58,200 RB were sold for 20/21. The shipments through the week ending 11/14 were 137,886 RB which raised the accumulated MY shipments to 2.748 MRB, that is 14.44% above last year’s pace and the highest through the first 16 weeks of the MY since 2008/09. The 11/20 Cotlook A Index was down another 60 points to 74.40 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton will be updated later this afternoon, the current AWP is 57.06 cents/lb.
DEC 19 Cotton is at 62.44, up 20 points,
MAR 19 Cotton is at 64.48, up 20 points
MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.61, up 13 points
JUL 20 Cotton is at 66.61, u... Read more
Mar ICE NY cocoa (CCH20) this morning is down -3 (-0.11%), and Mar ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH20) is down -5 (-0.26%).
Cocoa prices slid to 1-week lows today on data that showed strong cocoa output in Ghana, the world's second largest cocoa producer. The Ghana Cocoa Board reported today that it purchased 163,162 MT of cocoa from farmers during Oct 1-Nov 7, up +0.5% y/y.
Cocoa supplies are also adequate from the Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer. Monday's data from the Ivory Coast government showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 88,855 MT of cocoa to ports during Nov 11-17, up +6.1% from the year-earlier period. Total arrivals for the season beginning Oct 1 are up +6.0% y/y to 533,952 MT.
Mar NY cocoa posted a contract high Monday and nearest-futures (Dec19) posted a 1-1/2 year nearest-futures high on signs of strength in global cocoa demand and on shrinking supplies. The International Cocoa Organization (ICO) last Thursday said the global cocoa market... Read more
Mar arabica coffee (KCH20) this morning is up +3.20 (+2.88%), and Jan ICE robusta coffee (DFF0) is up +6 (+0.43%).
Mar arabica coffee today soared to a 4-month high, and nearest-futures Dec coffee surged to a 1-year high, on the outlook for smaller output and exports from Brazil. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) today said Brazil 2019/20 coffee production may slide -10.5% y/y to 58 mln bags from 64.8 mln bags in 2018/19. The USDA's FAS also forecast that Brazil 2019/20 coffee exports will slide -14.7% y/y to 35.32 million bags.
Robusta coffee has support from Wednesday's comment from Vietnam's Quang Minh Coffee Trading Group that low prices are discouraging Vietnam's coffee farmers from selling their beans. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee.
Current arabica coffee supplies continue to decline, which is also providing support to coffee prices, after ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 15-month low of 2.149 milli... Read more
Mar NY world sugar #11 (SBH20) this morning is down -0.01 (-0.08%) and Mar London white sugar #5 (SWH20) is up +1.30 (+0.39%).
Sugar prices are mixed this morning with NY sugar undercut by weakness in the Brazilian real, while London sugar rose on reduced sugar output from India, the world's second-largest sugar producer.
The Brazilian real is down -0.35% against the dollar today, just above Tuesday's 4-year low against the dollar. The weaker real encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers
Sugar prices have support from the outlook for smaller sugar production in India after the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) on Wednesday reported that that India's sugar production during Oct 1-Nov 15 plunged -64% y/y to 485,000 MT. The ISMA on Nov 5 projected India 2019/20 sugar production will fall -19% y/y to 26.85 MMT.
Sugar prices have seen support from recent frost conditions in the U.S. that damaged U.S. sugar beet crops. Marex Spectron on Monday... Read more