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Grains Futures Prices

Mon, Oct 19th, 2020
[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Mon, Oct 19th, 2020.
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Futures Market News and Commentary

Wheat Bulls Still Advancing

Wheat futures start the new week’s trade with 8 to 9 cent per bushel gains. Front month wheat futures faded double digit gains on Friday and closed the session mixed. SRW futures held onto gains, closing 2 1/4 to 7 cents higher. KC wheat closed mostly lower. MPLS ended the Friday session 2 1/4 cents lower to a penny/bushel higher. USDA’s Export Sales report showed weekly wheat bookings were on the high end of estimates with 529k MT sold. The week’s wheat shipments were 507k MT, bringing the accumulated shipments to 9.997 MMT (367 mbu). The weekly data release from CFTC showed SRW spec funds were 8,254 contracts more net long, with 1,030 contracts higher OI. In HRW, managed money had added 4,818 contracts to their net long – now at 32,197. MPLS spec traders are the least net short since March 26, 2019. They have been in a 110 consecutive week net short.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Corn Market Up 3 to 4 Cents

Corn futures start the new week 3 to 4 cents higher. USDA will release Export Inspections data from the week ending 10/15, and after the close NASS will show the final corn condition ratings and harvest as of yesterday. On Friday, late day selling erased early gains as front month corn futures closed fractionally to 1 3/4 cents lower. Preliminary open interest showed net new selling rather than long liquidation, rising 12,991 contracts. The weekly CoT report had managed money at 170,869 contracts net long as of October 13. That was a 27% stronger net long compared to the 6th. The weekly Export Sales report showed 655k MT of corn bookings in the week ending 10/8. That was down 46% wk/wk and on the low end of expectations, but still 78% more than the same week last year. Traders are expecting USDA to show corn harvest 51-55% complete as of Sunday.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Regain Portion of Friday Losses

Soybeans come out of the weekend 7 to 9 cents higher. On Friday soybean futures had double digit losses for Nov and Jan. Long liquidation was noted, with preliminary open interest down 9,159 contracts. December soymeal futures were down by $4.60/ton. Bean oil futures closed the last trade day of the week with 14 to 18 point losses. Soybean spec traders reduced their CFTC net long 11,950 contracts to 226,444 in the week ending October 14. That was a bit of a surprise, given higher market action. In soymeal, managed money was 5,121 contracts more long to 82,188 on net. Bean oil specs trimmed their net long another 3,926 contracts to 77,068. USDA’s Export Sales report indicated more than expected bean export business with 2.63 MMT sold in the week ending 10/8. Meal sales were reported at 152k MT. Bean oil bookings were 1,366 MT. IMEA (Brazil) estimates that 8.2% of the soybean crop in Brazil has been planted vs. the 38% average for this date. Traders look for US harvest to be 74-78%... Read more

Cash SRW Wheat: Rarified Air

The move by the cmdty National Soft Red Winter (SRW) Wheat Index (SRPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its impressive run last week, hitting a high of $6.02 before finishing Friday at $5.97. The peak was the highest mark posted by the SRPI since registering $6.03 the week of December 29, 2014, while the close was the highest since the previous week of 2014 was calculated at $5.99. Given that, it’s safe to say the SRPI has climbed into rarified air, a far cry from where it was less than 4 months ago. Recall, if you can, this past summer when the SRPI hit a low of $4.55 on June 26 before finishing that day at $4.61. While there have been a number of moving parts in cash wheat over the summer and fall, the most interesting aspect to me is watching how my theory of price distribution has played out. The idea is as old as commodity trade itself, given the age-old search for the upper-third and lower-third of markets. My studies are based on weekly closes over a set period of time, with the latter being back through the 2014-2015 marketing year for the SRPI. This past June, when it closed at $4.61, the SRPI was in the lower 44% of its distribution range. While not extraordinarily low, it was enough to trigger strong buying of cash SRW wheat, with last Friday’s close putting the SRPI in the upper 1% of its range, with only 3 weekly closes higher since June 2014. It would not be surprising to see this test of $6.00 uncover increased selling interest. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
Soybean Basis: Interesting Times

With Fall 2020 at its midway point as of noon this past Friday, things are getting more interesting when it comes to soybeans basis. I’m hearing from elevators across the US Plains and Midwest that space is getting tight, with room only for contracted bushels, producers busy selling across the scales, and basis weakening. One producer reported to me that his local bid fell from about 50 cents under to 70 cents under the last couple weeks, a similar story to others I’m sure. Meanwhile, the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) was calculated at 55 cents under November futures this past Friday, down only fractionally from the previous week’s final calculation of 54.9 cents under and still sitting at its strongest level from the previous 5-years. In other words, reports from local elevators don’t seem to jibe with what the NSBI is showing us. This raises the issue that the index could be skewed by river and port markets as US exports remain on fire this fall. The latest weekly export sales and shipment update, through Thursday, October 8, showed total shipments of 331.4 mb and outstanding sales of 1.257 bb, putting total sales at a whopping 1.588 bb still early in the 2020 marketing year. However, if the expected rain has fallen over Brazil this weekend and the world’s largest buyer (China) grows more comfortable with potential production from its primary supplier (Brazil), the NSBI could soon reflect the pressure I’ve been hearing so much about recently. Things are indeed getting interesting. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
Cash Corn: The Wild Wild West

I had an interesting conversation with a customer out in western Kansas earlier this week. He was talking to me about how the corn market was on fire in his part of the world, with the flame even hotter further to the southwest in the Texas Panhandle. As most of you know, that part of the US Southern Plains is filled with cattle feedyards, with the last couple decades seeing some chicken and hog facilities take root as well. A look at the corn basis map on my cmdtyView system shows some dark green areas, indicating markets showing basis of 60 cents over or more across the area. The highest cash bid in the Texas Panhandle (at least what I can see) is $4.56 in Castro County. This is roughly 30 cents higher than the price I see posted in Stevens County, Kansas, a distance of roughly 220 miles as the crow flies. Another hot spot is back to the east a bit in Pottawatomie County, Oklahoma where a feedyard has a posted basis of 80 cents over. What in the Wild Wild West is going on? Though the US is hurrying its way through the 2020 corn harvest, there are areas still deficit corn, most notably across the US Southern Plains. As fall turns into winter, and cattle across the land continue to need to eat (recall the large August placement and September 1 on feed numbers in USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed report), basis should continue to strengthen as supplies continue to tighten. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
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