cmdty Soybean Prices and Indexes

by cmdtyNewswires - 42 minutes ago
Soybean futures are down 5 to 7 cents this morning, since closing Tuesday with most contracts fractionally to 2 cents higher. Forecasts for heavy rainfall totals in most of the Corn Belt (especially the ECB), with 23% of the crop left to be planted supported the market on Tuesday. Losses in corn and wheat were seen as pressure. Soymeal was down $2.30/ton, with bean oil 19 points higher. USDA reported that IL was 70% planted, IN was 74%, MO at 57% and OH just 46% planted by Sunday. MN was 94% complete, with IA at 89% and NE 91% planted. TN was the only of the 18 states reported faster than normal. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Mon Jun 17, 3:11PM CDT
Corn and soybeans have received much of the attention over the last few weeks, and rightfully so. New-crop corn could be looking at a dramatic change in ending stocks between 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, with a drop of 33% to 50% becoming more widely accepted. The never-ending rain across the U.S. Midwest has recently raised concerns over lost soybeans acres, with the futures market acting as if USDA’s June Supply and Demand report will be the most bearish numbers seen over the remainder of the 17-month reporting cycle (through the September 2020 Quarterly Stocks report). But the same weather issues causing “maybe” issues in these much more glamorous markets is having a real effect on the U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat crop waiting to be harvested. A meteorologist friend of mine sent me a colorful weather map for the U.S. Midwest with a simple message, “So…about that SRW harvest…” Monday’s latest weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed Illinois SRW harvest progress at 6% (as of Sunday, June 16) versus last year’s 26% and the 5-year average of 21%. Meanwhile, the cmdty Regional SRW Wheat Basis Index for southeastern Illinois (ZWBAIL90.CM) is showing a strong uptrend on its daily chart. Monday saw this regional index finish at 18 3/4 cents over, where two weeks ago it registered at about 7 cents over. All while the July Chicago wheat futures contract continues to extend its rally. While the U.S. isn’t going to run out of SRW, I would expect some of these regional basis indexes across the U.S. Midwest to continue to strengthen over the coming weeks. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Fri Jun 7, 5:48AM CDT
It’s early Friday morning, meaning we are approaching another weekend that should be filled with combines harvesting hard red winter (HRW) wheat across the U.S. Southern Plains. Recent weeks have seen nothing but waiting and frustration as rains and flooding continued to dampen any thoughts of harvest. Yet, as we approach this next weekend, I’m seeing signs that merchandisers in parts of the Southern Plains are growing more optimistic. This morning I’m looking at the cmdty HRW Wheat Basis Index for Reno County, Kansas. Those of you unfamiliar with where Reno County is, it sits near the central part of the state, home to Hutchinson, Kansas and some of the largest terminals in the United States. Back in my days as a grain merchandiser, again in Kansas, I moved a lot of wheat to Hutchinson. I was interested in the Hutch/Reno Co. basis index after Thursday rally, some would use the adjective “curious” with that, of about 10 cents. The index is showing basis sitting at roughly 16 cents under, no real change from the previous day, which in itself is interesting as it hints at merchandisers still looking for supplies to meet short-term demand. However, the big picture shows Reno Co. basis continuing to weaken, sitting about 1 1/4 cents below the previous week. This could be the initial signs that merchandisers in the heart of the HRW Belt are finally starting to anticipate harvest rolling into the area over the next couple weeks. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Wed Jun 5, 6:56PM CDT
Anyone else sick to death of the endless yammering about NASS’ weekly Crop Progress Report? A show of hands…Hopefully mine isn’t the only one up. But just to be safe, I raised them both. Yes, the weekly release of truly nonsensical, made-up percentages has most in the industry frothing because due to wet weather that just won’t stop, folks are afraid absolutely nothing, corn or soybeans, will be planted this year. The funny thing is, the only ones fretting about it are the ones who keep talking about it. In other words, to quote a well-known saying, “Those who talk don’t know.” But what about those who do know, who do have a vested interest in the outcome of this spring’s planting, or lack thereof? Certainly THEY are voicing their concern, right? To answer this burning question, I set up a chart comparing new-crop (October) cmdty Regional Soybean Basis Indexes (RSBI) for three of the largest crushing regions in the U.S.: northwest Iowa, southwest Iowa, and central Iowa. What I found wasn’t that surprising, at least not to me, because I also watch trends in futures spread and forward curves. What I see on the daily comparison chart for these three RSBI (reads like a baseball acronym, doesn’t it?) is that soybean processing plants are not overly concerned about long-term supplies. The most volatility is seen in the NW Iowa region (ZSBEIA10.CM), where new-crop soybean basis has ranged from 46 cents under (April 2) to 65 3/4 cents under (May 1). The latest reading (June 5) is showing roughly 62 3/4 cents under. SW Iowa (ZSBEIA70.CM) has a range of 85 1/4 under to 91 1/2 under and is sitting near mid-range at 88 cents under. Central Iowa (ZSBEIA50.CM) was calculated at 85 1/2 cents under on June 5, near its high going back to early 2019. The low was near 93 cents under in mid-April. The bottom line is there may be some concern, but it isn’t the catastrophe made out by the majority’s gnashing of teeth and rending of garments. To me it reeks of the other part of the old saying, “Those who know don’t talk.” Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.