Soybean Indexes

by cmdtyNewswires - 4 minutes ago

Soybeans futures continue to leak lower, down 3 to 3 1/4 cents in the nearby contracts. Soybean meal is down $2.10/ton, with Bean oil 28 points higher. Export commitments of soybeans are now 4.8% above last year, even as unshipped sales down 3%. Accumulated exports are up 14% at 26% of the USDA projection. Combined, shipped and unshipped sales are 49% of that projection, with the normal pace at 63%. The Weekly Ag Report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated Argentinean bean planting had reached 31.1% completion as of 11/21. ARC Mercosul estimates that the Brazilian soybean crop is 77.3% planted, vs. the average of 80.5% and 89.6% last year.

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $8.98, down 3 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans are at $9.12, down 3 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.25 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans are at $9.37 1/4, down 3 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $298.90, down $2.10,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $30... Read more

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Tue Nov 19, 9:28AM CST
As we all saw, soybean futures opened the week under pressure with the nearby January contract losing 8 cents at Monday’s close. The usual suspects were all cited as reasons “why”, namely some comment by someone regarding trade talks between the United States and China was viewed as bearish. Analysts love to run with this nonsense, so we might as well let them. I’m sure Tuesday’s rally (if it holds) will have these same folks chattering about how trade talk news was more bullish. The bottom line with soybeans is that the fundamental picture isn’t changing, regardless of the trade situation. The carry in the market’s forward curve remains neutral-to-bearish, and basis is neutral at this time with last Friday’s cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) calculated at 63 3/4 cents under (January futures). The 5-year average for the close the third week of November came in at 69 1/4 cents under Jan. As stated above, the January contract started the week off with a loss of 8 cents so my interest immediately turned to how the NSBI would come in Monday afternoon. When the calculations were complete the NSBI registered at roughly 63 1/2 cents under, a gain of only 1/4 cent. This seems a bit light for the sell-off seen in futures, hinting at a lack of anxiousness by merchandisers in covering short-term demand. Meanwhile, China’s siege on the U.S. soybean industry is gaining strength as weather in Brazil remains satisfactory for crop progress, a factor that could ultimately start to crack U.S. basis. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Mon Nov 18, 8:46AM CST
On the subject of corn basis, it doesn’t matter what part of the country I talk about the story is the same: Merchandisers continue to push basis in an attempt to source supplies to meet short-term demand. I have a farmer friend from South Dakota who told me over the weekend that his local basis market, extending into eastern Minnesota, has climbed to 2 cents under, versus last year at this same time of 57 cents under. I’ve also seen reports of basis in parts of Ohio jumping to 50 cents over or more, a situation that can no longer be viewed as an outlier, at least not this year. All of this adds up to a still strong cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) as we roll into another week. Last Friday saw the NCBI calculated at 14 1/4 cents under, roughly 3/4 cent stronger than the previous week and holding well above both the 5-year average of 35 1/4 cents under and 5-year high of 22 cents under for the third weekly close of November. The situation is made even more interesting as we continue to track demand, with last week’s export shipment update showing the U.S. on pace to ship 1.233 bb during the 2019-2020 marketing year as compared to the reported 2018-2019 export shipments of 1.937 bb. For those of you keeping track at home, that is a marketing year-to-marketing year decrease of just over 700 mb. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Tue Nov 12, 9:23AM CST
How does national average basis react when the futures market breaks 15 cents and the carry in the nearby futures spread continues to strengthen? Well, judging by Monday afternoon’s calculation of the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average), basis strengthens by almost a penny. While the strength itself isn’t overly surprising given the uptrend seen on the NSBI’s daily and weekly charts, the question remains as to how long soybean basis can hold on with all else about the market growing more bearish. Based on its 5-year seasonal patterns the NSBI tends to strengthen, slowly, to an average peak of about 64 3/4 cents under with the close of the fourth week of December. This ties into the roll from January futures to March, with basis working back to its next peak of 65 1/4 cents under at the close of the first week of February. The latest 2019-2020 calculation of the NSBI (Monday, November 11) came in at 68 cents under the January futures contract, above the 5-year average of 74 cents under. While this marketing year continues to run slightly stronger than the 5-year average, I still consider the NSBI to be neutral. By the time we get to early February this marketing year, the market could be facing the situation of solid production in Brazil and decreased export demand for U.S. supplies. That seems to be what the solid carry in the futures market’s forward curve is telling us. If so, the NSBI would be expected to see more of a contra-seasonal breakdown. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.