Corn Price Indexes

by cmdtyNewswires - Thu Apr 2, 4:28PM CDT

Corn futures fell back from midday gains and end the session mixed. The front months May and July futures ended lower, while Sept and Dec futures were higher. Corn export bookings from the week ending March 26 totaled 1.075 MMT. The net sales were down from last week (which was the second highest for the MY) but were 73.9% higher yr/yr. MYTD exports through week 30 was up to 720.7 mbu. Corn exports in February were 154.17 mbu, which was the second largest Feb corn exports since Feb ’08. February corn exports were 57% above January exports and 8.3% higher yr/yr. MY exports through February total 619.06 mbu which was 45% lower yr/yr. DDGS exports from Feb totaled 852,904 MT which was 24.4% higher yr/yr. Through the 19/20 MY China accounts for 1.8% of the DDGS exports. Ethanol exports totaled 194.2 million gallons through February, which was the second highest all time for the month. Argentina is 22.2% harvested through April 1st, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts 50 MMT of pr... Read more

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Wed Apr 1, 10:40AM CDT
The early part of this week has seen national average corn basis stabilize, a small victory for a market that has crumbled of late. A look at the daily chart for the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) is enough to dishearten remaining corn market bulls, as the NCBI has fallen from a high of 12 1/4 cents under May futures on March 5 to the final March reading of 29 1/4 cents under as markets came to a close on Tuesday the 31st. Those looking for a silver lining will note the NCBI is unchanged, basically, from the previous Friday’s calculation. On the other hand those, like the Joker from “The Dark Knight” who “just like to watch the world burn”, will point out that even though the NCBI has stabilized this week each daily reading has been fractionally weaker. As I’ve talked about in this space over the last month or so, the biggest hurdle faced by corn basis has been continued domestic demand destruction. The loss of export business is well documented, particularly compared to the previous marketing year’s record pace, but more alarming is what is happening on the ethanol front. Wednesday morning was filled with talk of crude oil having its worst quarter ever, with the spot market reportedly losing 66% from January 1. Meanwhile, the RBOB gasoline to ethanol spread showed the latter moving to an almost 50-cent premium over the former during the latter stages of March. With gasoline demand near non-existent heading into the busy spring-summer driving season, it only looks to be making the situation more bearish for corn. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Fri Mar 27, 10:19AM CDT
What to think about wheat? Yes, I know, that’s a broad question so allow me to winnow it down a bit. More specifically, what to think about soft red winter wheat (SRW) basis? While there continues to be a number of bullish fundamental factors for SRW, the cmdty National SRW Wheat Basis Index (SRBI, weighted national average) has been in freefall of late. A look at the SRBI weekly close-only chart shows national average basis had been in a long term uptrend (series of higher lows and higher highs) dating back to the low of 54 1/2 cents under (nearby futures, week of November 28, 2016) and extending to the high of 5 1/4 cents under (week of January 6, 2020). After posting a double top with a secondary peak of 5 3/4 cents under (week of February 10, 2020), the SRBI fell to a new 4-week low weekly close of 8 1/4 under the week of February 24. This was the technical signal market fundamentals were setting sail on a new intermediate-term downtrend. How weak might basis get, from a technical point of view? Given the new secondary downtrend, the downside target area is between 24 cents under and 35 3/4 cents under. These prices mark the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous (and previously mentioned) 3-year plus uptrend. Extending the previous trendline, a harvest low for the SRBI could be seen near the 38.2% retracement level of 24 cents under. At that time the SRBI might rally for weeks and/or months, before turning down again to possibly test the 50% retracement level of 30 cents under. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Thu Mar 26, 9:12AM CDT
The latest weekly export sales and shipment report was released Thursday (March 26) morning, for data up through Thursday, March 19. Included in this was total export shipments of U.S. corn coming in at 671 mb at a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 44% of total export demand has been shipped. Doing the math shows us total export shipment demand for 2019-2020 could come in near 1.52 bb, down 22% from the previous marketing year’s reported shipments of roughly 1.94 bb. Total outstanding (unshipped) sales were sitting at 543 mb, nearly even with the previous marketing year’s 546 mb due to the big sale of 756,000 mt (29.8 mb) announced last Friday, March 20. The slow pace of export shipments continues to highlight the struggles of one of the three legs of demand for domestic corn. It should be noted, though, export demand usually accounts for about 15% of total demand each marketing year, with more emphasis put on feed and ethanol. However, the fact the world is little interested in buying U.S. supplies is certainly playing in the continued weakening of the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) with this past Wednesday’s calculation coming in at 27 1/4 cents under May futures. Last Friday (March 20) saw the NCBI calculated at 24 1/4 cents under, meaning the NCBI has weakened 3 cents following the announcement of the sizeable sale to China. The trend of the NCBI is now decidedly down as more cash corn from 2019 is sold. However, this flow could slow once U.S. producers are able to get into the fields for planting season. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.