cmdty Corn Prices and Indexes

by cmdtyNewswires - Tue Sep 17, 5:16PM CDT
Corn futures ended Turnaround Tuesday with most nearby contracts 6 to 7 cents lower. There are very few threats of frost in the forecasts to the first of Oct, as the 8-14 day outlook shows above normal temps for most of the US outside the PNW. This will help to push the delayed crops along into maturity. Conditions ratings reported on Monday showed IL up 8 points on the Brugler500 index, with IA up 6and MO 2 points higher. Ratings in NE dropped 1 point, with MN down 6 points and IN 4 points lower. Wire reports suggest China’s 2020 ethanol mandate could be pared back due to decreasing corn stocks, while stockpiles in state reserves have dropped to 56 MMT. DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.68, down 6 cents, MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.80, down 6 cents, MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.88 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.95, down 6 1/4 cents -- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Tue Sep 17, 10:17AM CDT
It’s always interesting when you go into a particular set of studies with an idea of what you’ll see. Then, once you pull up the chart something unexpected shows up. Such was the case this morning when I decided to take a look at the cmdty State Hard Red Spring (HRS) Wheat Basis Index for North Dakota. While one of my pre-conceived thoughts were confirmed, that of a late August to early September seasonal low, the theme for my latest piece was busted, in a way. Let me explain. Most of you know I pay little attention to NASS’ weekly Crop Condition and Progress reports. Still, I have been checking its theoretical (as opposed to actual) HRS harvest progress given the wet late summer and early fall the U.S. Northern Plains has seen. In its latest report (through Sunday, September 15), U.S. harvest progress was pegged at 76%, up slightly from the previous week’s 71% but well behind last year’s 96% and the 5-year average 93%. Of the 6 major growing states, North Dakota was behind its 5-year average of 91% completed by 13 percentage points. This was second only to Montana’s 22 percentage point lag, though I was more interested in North Dakota due to total spring wheat production. I was thinking the continued harvest delays might prop up basis a bit, but a look at the weekly chart for the North Dakota Index shows me last Friday’s close was about 81 cents under the Dec Minneapolis contract, not that far of the previous year’s low of 84 cents under and the year before that’s low of 86 cents under. While I do believe the seasonal has occurred, the fact state-wide basis has been stronger was a bit surprising. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Sat Sep 14, 8:28AM CDT
Almost everything about U.S. spring wheat seems to be standing still, as if stuck in the mud. Literally, given the amount of rain that has fallen over parts of the U.S. Northern Plains growing area the last week. A friend of mine said it best with his comments this past Friday, “The North Dakota spring wheat harvest has stalled, as they started at about 70% harvested and are ending the week…at about 70% done with harvest.” And while the December futures contract rallied 11 cents, along with nearly every other contract in the grain and oilseed complex, the Dec-to-March spread strengthened by a 1/4 cent to 15 cents carry and the cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Price Index (HSWI, weighted national average basis) weakened by about a 1/4 cent. It’s basis I find most interesting, again given the solid rally seen in the futures market. Recall from previous discussions that the HSWI was nearing some USDA county loan prices, putting growers at risk of having to deal with loan deficiency payments. However, the double-digit rally by futures combined with flat futures has removed this risk for the time being. As for spring wheat basis, the market is in its normal timeframe for posting a seasonal low. The 2017-2018 marketing year saw the HSWI hit a low weekly close the first week of September, followed by 2018-2019’s low the second week of September. The outlier year was 2016-2017, when the low was posted in late June. Given that, it would not be surprising to see the HWSI start to firm over coming weeks. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Fri Sep 6, 2:52PM CDT
In a recent post (“Largely De-Pressing”), I talked about how the cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Price Index (HSWI, weighted national average cash price) was getting close to moving below some county loan rates across the U.S. Northern Plains. This would indicate, as a friend of mine told me last month, that this year’s spring wheat crop could eventually deal with loan deficiency payments (LDPs). This happens when the local Posted County Price (PCP) falls below USDA’s county loan rate. I recently gave a market presentation in Kandiyohi County, Minnesota, so I’m going to use this for an example this afternoon. Kandiyohi County is roughly in the southern central or northern south-central part of the state, making it difficult to peg with a cmdty Regional Price Index. Therefore, I’m looking at the cmdty County Price Index for spring wheat (MWPAMNKB.CM) that looks to have settled at $4.19 1/4 Friday afternoon. This was down 7 3/4 cents from the previous day’s settlement of $4.27. A look at USDA Loan Program website shows the county loan rate of $4.15, with the PCP for Kandiyohi County for September 6 at $4.20. Given PCP’s have a day lag, there looks to be roughly a 7-cent differential between the County Price Index and official posted price. If that holds true Monday morning the PCP could be near $4.12, below the county loan rate, meaning harvested bushels still under ownership could be eligible for LDPs. Producers need to keep a close eye on their official PCPs but can track their county cmdty County Price Indexes for signals of an opportunity coming. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.