cmdty Corn Prices and Indexes

by cmdtyNewswires - 1 hour ago
Corn futures are trading 2 to 5 cents lower this morning. They ended the Turnaround Tuesday session with 4 to 6 cent losses in most nearby contracts. Profit taking after hitting a 5-year high on Monday weighed on the market. Some pressure also came from weakness wheat, as the nearby KC wheat-corn spread was 16 1/2 cents at Tuesday’s close. That was the tightest since 2013. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed that OH still has 32% of the crop left to be seeded, with IL 12% remaining. EIA will release their weekly ethanol production and stocks data later this morning. Dr Michael Cordonnier raised his 18/19 Brazilian corn production estimate by 1 MMT to 100 MMT. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Fri Jun 7, 5:48AM CDT
It’s early Friday morning, meaning we are approaching another weekend that should be filled with combines harvesting hard red winter (HRW) wheat across the U.S. Southern Plains. Recent weeks have seen nothing but waiting and frustration as rains and flooding continued to dampen any thoughts of harvest. Yet, as we approach this next weekend, I’m seeing signs that merchandisers in parts of the Southern Plains are growing more optimistic. This morning I’m looking at the cmdty HRW Wheat Basis Index for Reno County, Kansas. Those of you unfamiliar with where Reno County is, it sits near the central part of the state, home to Hutchinson, Kansas and some of the largest terminals in the United States. Back in my days as a grain merchandiser, again in Kansas, I moved a lot of wheat to Hutchinson. I was interested in the Hutch/Reno Co. basis index after Thursday rally, some would use the adjective “curious” with that, of about 10 cents. The index is showing basis sitting at roughly 16 cents under, no real change from the previous day, which in itself is interesting as it hints at merchandisers still looking for supplies to meet short-term demand. However, the big picture shows Reno Co. basis continuing to weaken, sitting about 1 1/4 cents below the previous week. This could be the initial signs that merchandisers in the heart of the HRW Belt are finally starting to anticipate harvest rolling into the area over the next couple weeks. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Wed Jun 5, 6:56PM CDT
Anyone else sick to death of the endless yammering about NASS’ weekly Crop Progress Report? A show of hands…Hopefully mine isn’t the only one up. But just to be safe, I raised them both. Yes, the weekly release of truly nonsensical, made-up percentages has most in the industry frothing because due to wet weather that just won’t stop, folks are afraid absolutely nothing, corn or soybeans, will be planted this year. The funny thing is, the only ones fretting about it are the ones who keep talking about it. In other words, to quote a well-known saying, “Those who talk don’t know.” But what about those who do know, who do have a vested interest in the outcome of this spring’s planting, or lack thereof? Certainly THEY are voicing their concern, right? To answer this burning question, I set up a chart comparing new-crop (October) cmdty Regional Soybean Basis Indexes (RSBI) for three of the largest crushing regions in the U.S.: northwest Iowa, southwest Iowa, and central Iowa. What I found wasn’t that surprising, at least not to me, because I also watch trends in futures spread and forward curves. What I see on the daily comparison chart for these three RSBI (reads like a baseball acronym, doesn’t it?) is that soybean processing plants are not overly concerned about long-term supplies. The most volatility is seen in the NW Iowa region (ZSBEIA10.CM), where new-crop soybean basis has ranged from 46 cents under (April 2) to 65 3/4 cents under (May 1). The latest reading (June 5) is showing roughly 62 3/4 cents under. SW Iowa (ZSBEIA70.CM) has a range of 85 1/4 under to 91 1/2 under and is sitting near mid-range at 88 cents under. Central Iowa (ZSBEIA50.CM) was calculated at 85 1/2 cents under on June 5, near its high going back to early 2019. The low was near 93 cents under in mid-April. The bottom line is there may be some concern, but it isn’t the catastrophe made out by the majority’s gnashing of teeth and rending of garments. To me it reeks of the other part of the old saying, “Those who know don’t talk.” Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

by cmdty Update with Darin Newsom - Tue Jun 4, 9:14AM CDT
With the attention of nearly everyone in the corn market turned to new-crop, there is still likely some holding onto some old-crop bushels. It’s for them I take another look at the old-crop national average basis (cmdty National Corn Basis Index, NCBI). While my hope is there aren’t many old-crop bushels left to move to town, the fundamental indicators of basis and old-crop July-to-September futures spread is telling us there are. We’ll find out how many, roughly, when the June 1 Quarterly Stocks report is released on Friday, June 28. For this discussion, I’m looking at the NCBI daily chart. What I see is a solid downtrend from the peak of 19 1/2 cents under on April 30, 2019. The immediate fall to 26 3/4 cents under is easily discernible as the roll from the May futures contract to the July at a carry of roughly 7 cents. Therefore, it’s what has happened since May 1 that I find most interesting. National average basis initially rallied to a high of 25 1/2 cents under the July contract on May 13, before falling to 29 cents under on Monday, June 3. If you’ve been watching the corn market, you know what has happened to the July futures contract since its bullish reversal on May 13. It rocketed 95 cents higher through its peak on May 29. And as you likely recall, there is often an inverse relationship between futures and basis, particularly when demand for old-crop corn could be described as steady-at-best. What I will be watching now is how basis reacts to what looks to be the beginning of a minor (short-term) downtrend in the futures market. If the NCBI continues to weaken as the futures market works lower, the good times in old-crop cash corn could certainly be seen as “slip sliding away”. Stay tuned. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.