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European Softs Futures Prices

Wed, Mar 20th, 2019
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Futures Market News and Commentary

Cotton Market News and Commentary

Cotton futures saw 20 to 38 point losses in most contracts on the day. A weaker US dollar supported the market. The Cotlook A Index was up 130 points on March 18 to 84.35 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 64.10 cents/ lb on Thursday, up 68 points from the week prior. US Trade rep Lighthizer and Treasury Sec Mnuchin are planning to head to Beijing next week for further trade talks. The Federal Reserve FOMC is meeting today and Wednesday. No change in short term interest rates is expected. The data is murkier than usual because of the government shutdown back in December and January.May 19 Cotton closed at 75.650, up 38 points,Jul 19 Cotton closed at 76.720, up 31 pointsOct 19 Cotton closed at 75.420, up 20 points--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Cocoa Prices Settle Mixed as Robust Ivory Coast Production Offsets a Weak Dollar

May ICE NY cocoa (CCK19) on Tuesday closed up +6 (+0.27%) and May ICE London cocoa (CAK19) closed down -4 (-0.24%). Fund short-covering emerged in NY cocoa futures Tuesday after the dollar index tumbled to a 2-week low. Also, forecasts for limited precipitation in West Africa over the next week sparked short-covering since the limited precipitation may crimp cocoa crop yields in in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's two biggest cocoa producers. On the bearish side is strong cocoa production in the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, after data on Monday showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 1.586 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Mar 17, up +10.9% from the same time last year. Current cocoa supplies are abundant as cocoa stockpiles held at ICE-monitored warehouses rose to a 5-3/4 month high Monday of 4.269 mln bags.
Coffee Prices Settle Mixed as Ample Supply Weighs on Arabica Coffee

May arabica coffee (KCK19) on Tuesday closed down -0.20 (-0.21%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) closed up +9 (+0.61%). May arabica coffee closed lower Tuesday on ample coffee supplies and rain in Brazil, with May arabica coffee trading just above last Tuesday's contract low and May robusta coffee trading just above Friday's contract low. ICE-monitored coffee inventories climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.5 mln bags on Tuesday, and CeCafe reported last Wednesday that Brazil Feb arabica coffee exports jumped +40.5% y/y to 3.1 mln bags. Also, abundant rainfall in Brazil is benefiting Brazil's coffee crops after data from Somar Meteorologia on Monday showed that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica coffee growing region, measured 56.8 mm in the past week, or 131% of the historical average. Losses in arabica coffee were limited Tuesday after the Brazilian real rose to a 1-1/2 week high against the dollar, which discourages exports by Brazil's coffee producers. Another positive factor for coffee was last Friday's data from the Green Coffee Association that showed U.S. Feb green coffee inventories fell -4% y/y to 6.26 mln bags. A positive factor for robusta coffee is smaller robusta supply after recent data from Vietnam's Department of Customs showed that Vietnam Jan-Feb coffee exports fell -10.1% y/y to 317,148 MT.
Sugar Prices Close Lower on Increased Production in India

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Tuesday closed down -0.06 (-0.47%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) closed down -4.90 (-1.41). Sugar prices moved lower Tuesday after the All India Sugar Trade Association raised its 2018/19 sugar production estimate for India, now the world's largest sugar producer, to 32.6 MMT from a Jan estimate of 31.5 MMT and above the Indian Sugar Mills Association's estimate of 30.7 MMT. Also, weakness in crude prices weighed on sugar as weaker crude oil prices undercut ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil’s sugar mills to divert more cane crushing to sugar production than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. A positive for sugar was strength in the Brazilian real which climbed to a 1-1/2 week high against the dollar on Tuesday, which discourages exports from Brazil’s sugar producers. On the bearish side, India's Sugar Mills Association on Monday reported that India sugar production during Oct 1-Mar 15 rose +5.9% y/y to 27.35 MMT.
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