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European Softs Futures Prices

Wed, Sep 18th, 2019
[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Wed, Sep 18th, 2019.
[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes, based on [[ timeframe ]] data.

Futures Market News and Commentary

Cotton Posts Triple Digit Losses on Tuesday

Cotton futures posted 101 to 162 point losses in most contracts on Tuesday. Crude was back down 6.39% on Tuesday after Monday’s sharp rally. NASS showed conditions in TX up 1 point on the week as of Sunday, with GA down 3 points. AZ was down 10, with MS jumping 17 points. A Chinese auction of state reserves saw all of the 11,349 MT of cotton sold on Tuesday. The Cotlook A Index was up 10 points on September 16 at 73.65 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.28, effective through Thursday. OCT 19 Cotton closed at 59.97, down 162 points, DEC 19 Cotton closed at 61.3, down 129 points MAR 20 Cotton closed at 61.78, down 118 points MAY 20 Cotton closed at 62.82, down 101 points -- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Sugar Prices Retreat on a Slide in Crude Oil and Weakness in the Brazilian Real

Mar NY world sugar #11 (SBH20) on Tuesday closed down by -0.16 (-1.31%), and Dec ICE London white sugar #5 (SWZ19) closed down by -0.40 (-0.12%). Sugar prices retreated Tuesday on weakness in crude oil and also in the Brazilian real. Crude prices fell more than -5% Tuesday, which is negative for ethanol prices and may encourage Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. Mar NY sugar posted a 2-week high and Dec London sugar climbed to a 1-month high Monday after crude oil prices surged to a 3-3/4 month high. A slump in the Brazilian real to a 1-week low against the dollar Tuesday also pressured sugar prices since the weaker real encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers. In a potentially bullish factor for NY sugar prices, last Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed that funds boosted their net-short position by 29,486 contracts in the week ended Sep 10 to 218,896 contracts, a record high in data going back to 2006, which could provide fuel for a short-covering rally. Another bullish factor for sugar was last Tuesday's data from Unica showing that sugar production in Brazil's Center-South region in the 2019/20 marketing year through August fell -4.85 y/y to 17.971 MMT. Unica projects that increased ethanol output in Brazil will cut Brazil 2019/20 Center-South sugar production by -5.7% y/y to 25 MMT, a 14-year low. Mar NY sugar prices last Thursday posted a contract low and the nearest-futures contract (V19) dropped to an 11-1/2 month low on the outlook for robust sugar supplies to persist. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) last Monday said that a global sugar deficit for 2019/20 will be insufficient to erase huge global stockpiles since a "war on sugar" is hurting sugar consumption. ISO on Sep 2 said it sees global 2019/20 sugar production falling by -2.3% y/y to 172 MMT. ISO also cut its 2018/19 global sugar surplus estimate to +1.7 MMT from a previous estimate of +1.8 MMT and projected a 2019/20 global sugar deficit of -4.8 MMT. Concern about larger exports from India is undercutting sugar prices. India's government on Aug 28 approved extending sugar subsidies to subsidize exports of as much as 6 MMT of sugar in 2019/20, which is bearish for sugar prices since those exports will add to global sugar supplies. India is struggling to reduce near-record sugar ending stocks that are expected to be at 14.2 MMT on Oct 1, which is the start of the 2019/20 sugar season, and are expected to increase to 16.2 MMT at the start of the 2020/21 sugar season.
Coffee Prices Fall to 1-Week Lows on Weaker Brazilian Real and Bigger U.S. Coffee Inventories

Dec arabica coffee (KCZ19) on Tuesday closed down -3.95 (-3.79%), and Jan ICE robusta coffee (DFF0) closed down -15 (-1.11%). Coffee prices tumbled to 1-week lows Tuesday on weakness in the Brazilian real, which fell to a 1-week low against the dollar. A weaker real encourages export selling by Brazil's coffee producers. Bigger U.S. coffee supplies are also a negative factor for prices after the Green Coffee Association on Monday reported U.S. Aug green coffee inventories rose +1.8% m/m and +8.4% y/y to 7.224 mln bags. On the positive side for coffee prices was the forecast Tuesday from Brazil's government forecasting agency, Conab, for its Brazil 2019 coffee production of 49 mln bags, down from a previous estimate of 50.9 mln bags. Current arabica coffee supplies have tightened supplies after ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 1-year low on Tuesday of 2.311 mln bags. Dec arabica coffee posted a 6-week high last Wednesday and Jan robusta coffee rose to a 2-week high on crop concerns in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia last Monday said that most arabica-coffee crops in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais, the biggest arabica coffee growing region in Brazil, have not had significant rain in 3 months and that temperatures have been above average, which has stressed crops. Last Tuesday's data from CeCafe was also supportive for coffee prices after CeCafe reported Brazil Aug green coffee exports fell -8.5% y/y to 2.9 mln bags. In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) last Tuesday reported that global 2018-19 coffee exports during Oct-Jul rose +10% y/y to 109.4 mln bags. Also, ICO last Wednesday raised its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate to 4.96 mln bags from an August estimate of 3.92 mln bags. A supportive factor for robusta coffee was data last Wednesday from Vietnam's General Department of Vietnam Customs that showed Vietnam Aug coffee exports fell -18.7% m/m and -25.4% y/y to 114,162 MT, and cumulative Jan-Aug coffee exports are down by -11.5% y/y to 1.17 MMT. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta beans. In a potentially bullish factor for robusta coffee, last Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed that funds increased their net-short robusta coffee positions by 2,546 contracts in the week of Sep 10 to a record 45,434 contracts, the most since data began in 2011, which could provide fuel for a short-covering rally.
Cocoa Prices Close Higher as They Extend Their 2-Week Rally

Dec ICE NY cocoa (CCZ19) on Tuesday closed up +11 (+0.46%), and Dec ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ19) closed up +3 (+0.16%). Cocoa prices extended their 2-week rally Tuesday with Dec NY cocoa posting a new 6-week high. Lower cocoa output in the Ivory Coast is the latest bullish factor to push cocoa prices higher after Monday's data showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent only 6,102 MT of cocoa to ports from Sep 9-15, down -30.8% from the same time last year. However, cocoa sent to Ivory Coast ports totaled 2.11 MMT cumulatively from Oct 1 through July 31, up +15.3% from the same time last year. Cocoa prices were already in rally mode on the outlook for smaller cocoa output in Ghana after the Ghana Cocoa Board last Friday cut its Ghana 2019/20 cocoa production estimate to a 3-year low of 800,000 MT from a previous estimate of 950,000 due to an outbreak of the swollen shoot cocoa disease that has killed cocoa trees and cut cocoa output. A senior scientist at the Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana said on Sep 6 that about 16% of the cocoa crops in Ghana, the world's second largest cocoa producer, are infected by the deadly swollen-shoot disease. The Ghana Cocoa Board on Aug 19 said that cocoa purchased from farmers totaled 785,107 MT during Oct 1-July 18, down -6.3% y/y. In a potentially bullish factor for NY cocoa, last Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed that funds boosted their net-short position by 1,066 contracts in the week ended Sep 10 to a 5-month high of 34,842 contracts, which could provide fuel for a short-covering rally. A bearish factor for cocoa prices is ample rain in West Africa that may boost cocoa yields after satellite imagery from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center for Sep 8-14 showed above-average rainfall in the cocoa-growing regions of the Ivory Coast and Ghana. In a supportive factor, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have trended lower over the past three months and fell to a 6-3/4 month low of 3.883 million bags on Monday.
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