European Softs Futures Prices
Futures Market News and Commentary
Cotton futures closed the Friday session with gains of 33 to 42 points in the front months. USDA’s cotton production forecast is 17.5m bales. That is down 2m bales from June on lower acres and lower yields. 2020/21 yield is estimated at 820 lbs/acre, down by 5 from the previous estimate. USDA cut new crop exports by 1m bales, but stocks were still down by 1.2 million from production losses. New crop ending stocks are estimated at 6.8 m bales. The average cash price estimate went up 2 cents to 59 cents. USDA estimated global ending stocks at 102.77 m bales for 2020/21, compared to June’s forecast of 100.56 m bales. The decrease was primarily production cuts. For old crop, USDA estimates World cotton stocks at 100.92 m bales. The CoT report showed net new buying alongside of short covering from cotton spec traders. Managed money’s net position in cotton was 21,520 contracts net long on July 7. Thursday cotton sales on the online cotton trading platform The Seam were a 6 month daily hi... Read more
Sep ICE NY cocoa (CCU20) on Friday closed up +11 (+0.51%). Sep ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU20) closed up +15 (+0.96%).
Cocoa prices on Friday moved higher for a second day on positive carry-over from Thursday when cocoa rallied on hopes that chocolate demand will not drop as much as feared from the coronavirus pandemic. Barry Callebaut, the world's largest cocoa processor, said on Thursday that global chocolate sales were flat in the Sep-Apr period but started to pick up in mid-May. A weaker dollar on Friday is also positive for most commodities, including cocoa.
On Wednesday, NY cocoa tumbled to a contract low, and London cocoa fell to a 17-month low on ample cocoa supplies and demand concerns. The Ivory Coast government on Tuesday reported that Ivory Coast farmers sent 26,561 MT of cocoa to ports during Jun 29-July 5, up +53.9% y/y. Also, a total of 2.15 MMT of cocoa was sent to ports during Oct 1-Jul 5, up +0.9% y/y.
Cocoa prices have been on the defensive over t... Read more
Sep arabica coffee (KCU20) on Friday closed down -1.35 (-1.37%). Sep ICE Robusta coffee (DFU0) closed unchanged.
Coffee prices on Friday settled steady to lower. Arabica coffee fell back on negative carry-over from Thursday when consulting firm Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil's coffee farmers had sold 40% or 27.44 mln bags of their 2020 coffee crop as of July 7, well above the 5-year average of 30%. Also, Citigroup on Thursday cut its second-half-2020 arabica coffee price forecast to 90 cents a pound from a previous forecast of $1.20 a pound.
Robusta coffee recovered its losses and closed unchanged on signs of tighter supplies after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories on Friday fell to a 1-1/2 year low.
Coffee prices still have pressure on concern that a resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic may keep lockdowns in place for longer, undercutting coffee demand from restaurants and cafes.
A positive for arabica coffee prices is tightness in coffee... Read more
Oct NY world sugar #11 (SBV20) on Friday closed down -0.08 (-0.68%), and Oct London white sugar #5 (SWV20) closed down -4.20 (-1.21%).
Sugar prices on Friday moved lower for a third day, with NY sugar at a 1-1/2 week low and London sugar at a 6-week low on ample supplies and suspect demand. Sugar supplies are abundant after Unica on Thursday reported that Brazil's Center-South sugar production in the second half of June rose +23.3% y/y to 2.728 MMT, with the percentage of cane used for sugar climbing to 47.42% in 2020/21 from 37.06% in 2019/20. On the positive side, Unica also reported that total exports of ethanol by Brazil Center-South mills in June rose +44% y/y to 267 mln liters, which indicates pressure for less sugar production and more ethanol production.
The overall sugar demand picture is bearish for sugar prices. Czarnikow Group projects that with the closure of restaurants, sports arenas, and cinemas all over the world due to coronavirus lockdowns, global su... Read more