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Sat, Aug 24th, 2019
[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Sat, Aug 24th, 2019.
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Futures Market News and Commentary

10-year T-notes Climb to a 1-Week High on Escalation of U.S./China Trade Tensions

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU19) on Friday closed up +21 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield fell -8.0 bp to 1.533%. Sep T-notes recovered from a 1-week low Friday and rallied to a 1-week high after stocks slumped on escalation of U.S./China trade tensions. The 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 1-week low Friday of 1.505% after it had risen to a 1-week high of 1.661% in overnight trade. U.S./China trade tensions worsened after China's Ministry of Commerce said Friday that it will impose additional tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods with some of the tariffs starting Sep 1 and the rest on Dec 15. T-notes accelerated their gains Friday when President Trump tweeted that he will announce a response to the Chinese tariffs on Friday afternoon. Heightened trade tensions undercut the yuan which fell to a new 11-1/4 year low Friday of 7.1017 yuan/USD. Dovish Fed comments also supported T-note prices. Fed Chair Powell on Friday said the U.S. economy is in a favorable place but faces "significant risks" and "we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion." Also, St. Louis Fed President Bullard on Friday said, "we are willing to take all actions we need to continue the expansion" and that he expects a "robust debate" on a 50 bp rate cut by the Fed next month. Friday's U.S. economic data was bullish for T-notes after Jul new home sales unexpectedly fell -12.8% to 635,000, weaker than expectations of +0.2% to 647,000. U.S. inflation expectations retreated Friday after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate fell -1.8 bp to 1.541% as it consolidates above Wednesday's 2-3/4 year low of 1.529%. Big Picture T-Note Market Factors: Bullish factors for T-note prices include (1) low global bond yields that are helping to pull U.S. bond yields lower, (2) expectations for four more Fed rate cuts through the end of 2020, (3) weak U.S. inflation expectations, (4) weaker U.S. and global economic growth due to trade tensions, and (5) safe-haven demand due to trade tensions, Brexit risks, and geopolitical risks from Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) the Fed's go-slow approach to cutting interest rates, and (2) some continued simulative effects from the massive 2018 U.S. tax cut.
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