Stock Index Futures Muted in Thin Pre-Christmas Trade, U.S. Jobless Claims Data on Tap

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.03%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.01% this morning ahead of a holiday-shortened pre-Christmas trading session.

The U.S. stock markets will close early at 1 p.m. Eastern Time today and remain closed on Thursday in observance of the Christmas holiday.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the green, with the S&P 500 notching a new record high. Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Nvidia (NVDA) rising over +3% to lead gainers in the Dow and Amazon.com (AMZN) gaining more than +1%. Also, some chip stocks gained ground, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbing over +3% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Broadcom (AVGO) rising more than +2%. In addition, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) climbed over +5% after the company said it had received multiple acquisition offers as part of its ongoing review of strategic alternatives. On the bearish side, ServiceNow (NOW) fell more than -1% after agreeing to acquire cybersecurity firm Armis for $7.75 billion in cash.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in its initial estimate of Q3 GDP growth, said on Tuesday that the economy grew at a +4.3% annualized rate, stronger than expectations of +3.3%. Also, U.S. November industrial production rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. At the same time, U.S. durable goods orders fell -2.2% m/m in October, weaker than expectations of -1.5% m/m, and core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. In addition, the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 89.1 in December, weaker than expectations of 91.7.

“The strongest pace of economic growth in two years is bolstering confidence that corporate earnings will continue to expand robustly in 2026,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. At the same time, U.S. money markets continue to price in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

Meanwhile, the much-anticipated Santa Claus Rally period officially kicks off today. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average return of 1.3%, posting gains 78% of the time, according to Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 224K, the same as last week.

U.S. rate futures have priced in an 86.7% chance of no rate change and a 13.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the January FOMC meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.160%, down -0.22%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.03% this morning, struggling for direction in quiet pre-holiday trading, with major markets like Germany shut and others, including London and Paris, set for early closures. Energy stocks advanced on Wednesday, as oil prices climbed for a sixth straight session. Luxury stocks also gained ground. Meanwhile, the regional Stoxx 600 index hit a new record high on Tuesday and is on track for its best annual performance since 2021, underpinned by lower interest rates, Germany’s fiscal spending push, and investor rotation away from expensive U.S. technology stocks. In other news, the Bank of Spain raised its economic growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.6% for this year and to 2.2% from 1.8% for 2026. In corporate news, BP Plc (BP-.LN) rose as much as +1.4% before paring gains after agreeing to sell a 65% stake in its Castrol unit to investment firm Stonepeak for about $8 billion.

The European economic data slate is empty on Wednesday.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.53%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.14%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, extending its gains for a sixth consecutive session. The benchmark index notched its longest winning streak since July. Technology stocks gained ground on Wednesday. Global investors are ramping up bets on Chinese AI-related companies, wagering on the next DeepSeek and looking to diversify. Earlier this week, Moore Threads Technology, often referred to by analysts as “China’s Nvidia,” introduced a range of new products, including its next-generation chip architecture and AI chips. Meanwhile, the yuan extended its gains on Wednesday, moving closer to the key 7-per-dollar level after the People’s Bank of China set a firmer fixing. In other news, the Trump administration said on Tuesday it will impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports over Beijing’s “unreasonable” push for chip industry dominance, but will delay the move until June 2027. Hong Kong’s market will be closed on Thursday and Friday for the Christmas holidays, while mainland China’s financial markets will remain open as usual.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index gave up earlier gains and closed slightly lower today, marking its first decline in four sessions. Japanese equities were pressured by a stronger yen. A stronger yen reduces the value of overseas sales for the country’s heavyweight exporters, with automakers among the notable underperformers on the day. The Japanese currency rose for a third day as traders stayed alert for signs of intervention following Tokyo’s warning against excessive moves. Financial stocks also slumped, paring some of the sharp gains that followed the Bank of Japan’s interest-rate hike last Friday. Limiting losses, some chip stocks climbed, tracking overnight gains in their U.S. peers. Data from the Cabinet Office released on Wednesday showed that Japan’s October leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for a few months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, was revised slightly lower. Meanwhile, minutes from the Bank of Japan’s October meeting released on Wednesday showed that policymakers debated the need to keep raising interest rates toward levels seen as neutral for the economy. A few members of the nine-member board also said recent yen declines could risk an inflation overshoot by driving up import costs. In other news, a draft seen by Reuters showed that Japan plans to issue new government bonds worth about $189 billion to finance a record-sized budget for the next fiscal year. Investor focus is now squarely on a raft of Japan’s economic data, scheduled for release on Friday, including Tokyo core CPI, industrial production, retail sales, and employment figures. Investors also await BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech on Thursday, as they seek guidance on the central bank’s policy path. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.36% to 22.38.

The Japanese November Corporate Services Price Index rose +2.7% y/y, in line with expectations.

The Japanese October Leading Index came in at 109.8, weaker than expectations of 110.0.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Dynavax (DVAX) jumped over +37% in pre-market trading after Sanofi agreed to buy the vaccine maker for about $2.2 billion.

UiPath (PATH) climbed more than +8% in pre-market trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the software company would be added to the S&P MidCap 400 index on January 2nd.

Nike (NKE) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after a regulatory filing revealed that Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased 50,000 shares of the footwear maker on Monday.

Intel (INTC) slid more than -2% in pre-market trading after Reuters reported that Nvidia has paused testing to manufacture on Intel’s 18A chipmaking node following initial tests.

KB Home (KBH) fell about -0.8% in pre-market trading after Raymond James downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Outperform.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - December 24th

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