The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.06%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.03%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down up +0.13%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.15%.
Stock indexes are narrowly mixed, pressured by a +3 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield on today’s strong US Q3 GDP report of +4.3%. The strong GDP report caused the market to reduce the odds for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 28 to 13% from 20% on Monday. The Magnificent Seven stocks are trading mostly higher, giving some support to the broad market.
US Q3 real GDP rose +4.3% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of +3.3% and the Q2 rate of +2.5%. The Q3 GDP Price Index rose +3.8% (q/q annualized), much stronger than expectations of +2.7% and up from Q2’s +2.1%. The Q3 core PCE Price Index rose +2.9% (q/q annualized), in line with expectations but up from Q2’s +2.6%.Â
The Conference Board’s Dec US consumer confidence index fell by -3.8 points to 89.1 from Nov’s revised level of 92.9 (preliminary 88.7), weaker than expectations for a report of 91.0.
The Dec Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index fell by -0.5 points to -16.8 from -16.3 in Nov, which was weaker than expectations for a rise to -15.0.
Oct durable goods orders fell -2.2% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of -1.5%. Oct durable goods orders ex-transportation rose +0.2% m/m, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.3%. Oct core capital goods orders (ex transportation and defense), a proxy for capital spending, rose +0.5% m/m, which was slightly stronger than market expectations of +0.3%.
Nov US industrial production fell -0.1% m/m, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.1%. Nov manufacturing production fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than market expectations of +0.1%.Â
The Dec Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose by +8 points to -7 from Nov’s -15, and was stronger than market expectations of -10.
Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks. According to data from Citadel Securities, since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, climbing 1.3% on average.
The markets are discounting a 13% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.14%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.07% for the fourth consecutive daily gain. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.02%.
Interest Rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) are down -8 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.3 bp at 4.196%. T-note prices fell on the stronger-than-expected US Q3 GDP report of +4.3%, although most of the other economic reports released today were mildly weaker than expected on balance.
T-note prices are also being undercut by supply overhang. The Treasury today will sell $70 billion of 5-year T-notes and $28 billion of 2-year floating rate notes. The Treasury will then sell $44 billion of 7-year T-notes on Wednesday.
European government bond yields are lower. The 10-year German bund yield today fell back from Monday’s 9-month high and is down -3.1 bp to 2.866%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -2.9 bp at 4.507%.
Swaps are discounting a 0% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks are trading mostly higher, led by gains of about +1% in Alphabet (GOOGL)and Nvidia (NVDA). Â
Chip stocks are mixed today. Marvel Technology (MRVL) is up more than +1%, but NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Microchip Technology (MU) are down by more than -1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are trading lower, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) today down more than -1%. Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase Global (COIN) are down by more than -2%.
Miners are under pressure today due to some long liquidation pressure, even though silver and copper all posted new record highs today. Â Coeur Mining (CDE) is down more than -1% and Newmont (NEM) is down -0.6%, while Barrick Mining (B) is unchanged.
Sable Offshore Corp (SOC) is up +7% after news that the US Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration approved the company’s Las Flores pipeline restart plan.
Zim Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) is up +7% after news of buyout interest from multiple potential bidders.
Earnings Reports(12/23/2025)
None.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
