Stocks Little Changed as Fed Rate-Cut Odds Drop after Strong US GDP Report

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.06%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.03%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down up +0.13%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.15%.

Stock indexes are narrowly mixed, pressured by a +3 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield on today’s strong US Q3 GDP report of +4.3%.  The strong GDP report caused the market to reduce the odds for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 28 to 13% from 20% on Monday.  The Magnificent Seven stocks are trading mostly higher, giving some support to the broad market.

US Q3 real GDP rose +4.3% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of +3.3% and the Q2 rate of +2.5%.  The Q3 GDP Price Index rose +3.8% (q/q annualized), much stronger than expectations of +2.7% and up from Q2’s +2.1%.  The Q3 core PCE Price Index rose +2.9% (q/q annualized), in line with expectations but up from Q2’s +2.6%. 

The Conference Board’s Dec US consumer confidence index fell by -3.8 points to 89.1 from Nov’s revised level of 92.9 (preliminary 88.7), weaker than expectations for a report of 91.0.

The Dec Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index fell by -0.5 points to -16.8 from -16.3 in Nov, which was weaker than expectations for a rise to -15.0.

Oct durable goods orders fell -2.2% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of -1.5%.  Oct durable goods orders ex-transportation rose +0.2% m/m, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.3%.  Oct core capital goods orders (ex transportation and defense), a proxy for capital spending, rose +0.5% m/m, which was slightly stronger than market expectations of +0.3%.

Nov US industrial production fell -0.1% m/m, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.1%.  Nov manufacturing production fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than market expectations of +0.1%. 

The Dec Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose by +8 points to -7 from Nov’s -15, and was stronger than market expectations of -10.

Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks.  According to data from Citadel Securities, since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, climbing 1.3% on average.

The markets are discounting a 13% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.14%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.07% for the fourth consecutive daily gain.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.02%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) are down -8 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.3 bp at 4.196%.  T-note prices fell on the stronger-than-expected US Q3 GDP report of +4.3%, although most of the other economic reports released today were mildly weaker than expected on balance.

T-note prices are also being undercut by supply overhang.  The Treasury today will sell $70 billion of 5-year T-notes and $28 billion of 2-year floating rate notes.  The Treasury will then sell $44 billion of 7-year T-notes on Wednesday.

European government bond yields are lower.  The 10-year German bund yield today fell back from Monday’s 9-month high and is down -3.1 bp to 2.866%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -2.9 bp at 4.507%.

Swaps are discounting a 0% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks are trading mostly higher, led by gains of about +1% in Alphabet (GOOGL)and Nvidia (NVDA).  

Chip stocks are mixed today.  Marvel Technology (MRVL) is up more than +1%, but NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Microchip Technology (MU) are down by more than -1%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are trading lower, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) today down more than -1%.  Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase Global (COIN) are down by more than -2%.

Miners are under pressure today due to some long liquidation pressure, even though silver and copper all posted new record highs today.  Coeur Mining (CDE) is down more than -1% and Newmont (NEM) is down -0.6%, while Barrick Mining (B) is unchanged.

Sable Offshore Corp (SOC) is up +7% after news that the US Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration approved the company’s Las Flores pipeline restart plan.

Zim Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) is up +7% after news of buyout interest from multiple potential bidders.

Earnings Reports(12/23/2025)

None.