S&P Futures Muted With U.S. GDP Data in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending down -0.04% this morning, steadying after a three-day rally as investors await a trio of reports delayed by the government shutdown, with a particular focus on the initial estimate of third-quarter GDP.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher. Chip stocks advanced, with Micron Technology (MU) rising over +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and ON Semiconductor (ON) gaining more than +2%. Also, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) rose more than +3% after Larry Ellison agreed to back Paramount Skydance’s bid to buy the company with a $40.4 billion personal guarantee. In addition, UniFirst (UNF) surged over +16% after Cintas submitted a new offer to acquire the company for $275 per share or about $5.2 billion. On the bearish side, Dominion Energy (D) slid more than -3% after the Trump administration halted the construction of all U.S. offshore wind projects.

“Everything is shaping up for a festive end to the year,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “This week is being driven by technical tailwinds, a bit of stimulus optimism, and self-fulfilling prophecy, all of which are setting up a strong year-end and a solid start to next year.”

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has advanced 75% of the time during the final two weeks of December, averaging a 1.3% gain, according to data from Citadel Securities.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday that the central bank risks triggering a recession unless it keeps cutting interest rates next year. “If we don’t adjust policy down, then I think that we do run risks,” Miran said during an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 82.3% probability of no rate change and a 17.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in January.

Today, all eyes are on the Commerce Department’s initial estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, set to be released in a couple of hours. The GDP report was delayed by two months due to the government shutdown. Notably, the agency will not release third-quarter GDP in its usual sequence of three successive estimates and will instead publish only two readings. Economists, on average, forecast that U.S. GDP growth will stand at +3.3% q/q in the third quarter, underpinned by robust consumer spending and modest investment gains.

Investors will also focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data for October. The figures were originally scheduled for release on November 26th, but were delayed due to the fallout from the shutdown. Economists expect October Durable Goods Orders to drop -1.5% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders to rise +0.3% m/m, compared to the prior numbers of +0.5% m/m and +0.6% m/m, respectively.

The Fed’s Industrial Production reports for both October and November will be released today. Economists expect industrial production to be unchanged m/m in October and rise +0.1% m/m in November.

The U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index will come in today. Economists anticipate that the December figure will stand at 91.7, compared to last month’s value of 88.7.

The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists foresee this figure coming in at -8 in December, compared to the previous value of -15.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.146%, down -0.55%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.02% this morning, steadying after a mildly negative session the previous day. Healthcare stocks outperformed on Tuesday, with Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB.C.DX) climbing over +7% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved a pill version of its obesity drug Wegovy. Limiting gains, automobile and bank stocks retreated. Trading conditions are likely to stay muted this week, as the calendar is shortened by the Christmas holiday, with most major European stock exchanges shut on Thursday and Friday. Final data from the National Statistics Institute confirmed on Tuesday that Spain’s gross domestic product expanded 0.6% in the third quarter from the previous quarter. The Economy Ministry said domestic demand continued to be the primary engine of growth during the quarter, underpinned by higher household consumption and investment. Meanwhile, new car sales in Europe rose year-over-year in November for a fifth straight month, supported by a pickup in EV registrations across markets such as Germany, Italy, and Spain, according to data from the ACEA. In other corporate news, Flatexdegiro AG (FTK.D.DX) fell more than -1% after Germany’s market watchdog BaFin penalized the broker for violating securities trading rules.

Spain’s GDP data was released today.

The Spanish GDP has been reported at +0.6% q/q and +2.8% y/y in the third quarter, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.07%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.02%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, extending gains for the fifth consecutive session. Non-ferrous metal stocks led the gains on Tuesday as gold prices climbed to a record high. Semiconductor stocks also advanced after Reuters reported that Nvidia told Chinese customers it plans to begin shipping its second-most powerful AI chips to China before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February. At the same time, property stocks slid, with China Vanke falling over -2% after bondholders once again rejected the state-backed developer’s proposal to postpone repayment of a 2 billion yuan bond by one year. China will ramp up urban renewal and efforts to stabilize its property market in 2026, at the start of its latest Five-Year Plan, according to a readout from a housing policy conference released on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Citigroup strategists downgraded their view on Chinese equities to Neutral from Overweight, pointing to less favorable earnings revisions and a subdued macro outlook. In other corporate news, Kuaishou Technology slid over -3% in Hong Kong after the Chinese short-video platform suffered a cyberattack on Monday night.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed just above the flatline today. The benchmark index initially moved higher as a retreat in domestic bond yields from record highs buoyed sentiment. Reuters reported on Tuesday that Japan’s new government bond issuance for fiscal 2026 is likely to come in slightly above the 28.6 trillion yen ($182 billion) issued in the current fiscal year. Even as Japanese government bond yields retreated, expectations of further Bank of Japan policy tightening continued to underpin financial stocks. Bank and insurance stocks were among the biggest gainers on Tuesday. However, the Nikkei later gave back most of its earlier gains as auto stocks slumped after the yen strengthened toward the 156-per-dollar level. That followed Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivering the strongest warning yet on Tokyo’s readiness to intervene in the currency market. Katayama said Japan has a “free hand” to address excessive yen moves and will take necessary action against such movements. A pullback in heavyweights Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and SoftBank Group also weighed on the index. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told the Nikkei Business Daily on Tuesday that she believes the BOJ implemented last week’s rate hike to achieve its 2% inflation target in a sustainable and stable manner. Investor attention this week is on a raft of Japan’s economic data, including Tokyo core CPI, industrial production, retail sales, and employment figures. Investors will also focus on Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech this week, as they seek guidance on the central bank’s policy path. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -12.07% to 22.30.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) climbed over +8% in pre-market trading after the company said it had received multiple acquisition offers as part of its ongoing review of strategic alternatives.

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) advanced more than +4% in pre-market trading, extending yesterday’s gains after President Trump unveiled a new battleship class bearing his name, set to serve as the centerpiece of his so-called Golden Fleet.

Parsons Corp. (PSN) gained over +3% in pre-market trading after the company announced it had secured a contract for the Missile Defense Agency Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense, carrying a ceiling of $151 billion.

Gold mining stocks rose in pre-market trading after gold prices climbed to a record high, with Newmont (NEM) and Freeport-McMoran (FCX) gaining over +1%.

Ametek (AME) rose about +1% in pre-market trading after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a $230 price target.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - December 23rd

Limoneira (LMNR).