Stocks Climb on an AI-Led Rebound

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.93%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.89%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.17%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.76%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.92%.

Stock indexes are climbing for a second day today as the rebound in the artificial intelligence trade continues.  Strength in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks is leading gainers in the broader market.  Also, today’s -2% decline in WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) has knocked inflation expectations lower and is supportive for stocks and bonds.

Today’s US economic news was supportive for stocks, as the Apr trade deficit eased to -$55.9 billion from -$56.6 billion in Mar, narrower than the -$56.1 billion expected.   

Crude oil prices are sliding today and posted a 1-week low after Iran and Israel agreed to end hostilities toward each other.  President Trump today predicted a swift end to war with Iran and a subsequent fall in oil prices and said, “We’re in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal, and that they could have at least an idea one or two days from now” about the deal.   

China trade news was better than expected, a positive factor for global economic growth.  May exports rose +19.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +15.0% y/y.  Also, May imports rose +27.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +26.0% y/y.

The markets are discounting a 3% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 1.5-week high and is up +0.71%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.28%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closed up +2.17%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +3 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -2.2 bp to 4.540%.  Sep T-note prices are modestly higher today amid a -2% fall in WTI crude oil prices, which eased inflation expectations.  The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 7-week low of 2.350% today.  Supply pressures are limiting gains in T-notes, as the Treasury will auction $58 billion in 3-year T-notes later today. 

European government bond yields are mixed today.  The 10-year German Bund yield is up +0.3 bp to 3.063%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -1.9 bp to 4.924%.

German Apr industrial production rose +0.4% m/m, right on expectations and the biggest increase in five months.

German trade news was better than expected as Apr exports unexpectedly rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of a-0.5% m/m decline. Also, Apr imports unexpectedly rose +1.2% m/m versus expectations of a -2.0% m/m decline.

Swaps are discounting a 100% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on Thursday.

US Stock Movers

The strength of chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks is leading the broader market higher today.  Lam Research (LRCX) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Sandisk (SNDK) are up more than +3%.  Also, Intel (INTC), Micron Technology (MU), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are up more than +2%, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Western Digital (WDC), and ON Semiconductor (ON) are up more than +1%.

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are moving higher today with WTI crude oil down more than -2% at a 1-week low, which lowers the companies’ fuel costs and boosts profitability prospects.  United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) are up more than +4%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV), American Airlines Group (AAL), and Carnival (CCL) are up more than +3%.  Also, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is up more than +2%.

Energy producers and service providers are sliding today with WTI crude oil down more than -2% at a 1-week low.  APA Corp (APA) and Devon Energy (DVN) are down more than -2%, and ConocoPhillips (COP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Phillips 66 (PSX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -1%.  

Nuvalent (NUVL) is up more than +38% after GSK Plc agreed to buy the company for $10.6 billion, or about $124 a share. 

J M Smucker (SJM) is up more than +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.77, better than the consensus of $2.64, and forecasting 2027 adjusted EPS of $9.75 to $10.25, the midpoint above the consensus of $9.78. 

Applied Digital (APLD) is up more than +8% after signing a 15-year take-or-pay lease with a US-based artificial intelligence hyperscaler for 210 megawatts of IT load at its Delta Forge 2 campus. 

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is up more than +7% after announcing it will launch its BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 satellites on Wednesday, June 17.

West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) is up more than +3% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $400. 

United Natural Foods (UNFI) is down more than -15% after reporting Q3 net sales of $7.72 billion, weaker than the consensus of $7.80 billion, and forecast full-year net sales of $31.10 billion to $31.30 billion, below the consensus of $31.32 billion. 

SailPoint (SAIL) is down more than -9% after forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of 7 cents to 8 cents, the midpoint below the consensus of 7.9 cents. 

Vail Resorts (MTN) is down more than -4% after reporting Q3 EPS of $8.81, weaker than the consensus of $9.00. 

Gilead Sciences (GILD) is down more than-3%, and Merck & Co (MRK) is down more than -1% after the companies discontinued the Phase 3 trial of Trodelvy combined with Keytruda versus Keytruda alone to treat metastatic non-small cell lung cancer after the trial failed to meet its primary endpoints of progression-free survival and overall survival. 

Novanta (NOVT) is down more than -2% after agreeing to acquire Riverpoint Medical from Arlington Capital for $1.2 billion in cash.

Earnings Reports(6/9/2026)

Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY), J M Smucker Co/The (SJM), SailPoint Inc (SAIL).