Stocks Gain on US Manufacturing Strength

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.39%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.84%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.64%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.38%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.61%.

Stock indexes are moving higher today as chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks rebound from last Friday’s losses to lift the broader market higher.  Also, US rare-earth stocks are climbing today as President Trump is set to launch a strategic stockpile of critical minerals with $12 billion in seed money to lower reliance on China.  Stock indexes added to their gains today on signs of strength in the US economy, which are positive for corporate earnings, after the Jan ISM manufacturing index expanded by the most in more than 3.25 years.

The partial US government shutdown, now in its third day, has dampened investor sentiment as markets await the House's approval of a funding deal President Trump worked out with Democrats.  The funding lapse may be short-lived, however, with the House returning from a week-long break today and possibly voting on the spending bill later today or tomorrow.

Energy producers are under pressure today, with WTI crude oil sinking by more than 4% as geopolitical risks ease after President Trump said the US is talking to Iran, and Iran’s foreign ministry said it hopes diplomatic efforts will avert a war. 

Cryptocurrency stocks are retreating today with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -6% to a 9.75-month low.  According to Coinglass, nearly $590 million in long Bitcoin positions were liquidated over the weekend.

Signs of weakness in China’s economy are bearish for global growth prospects and stocks.  The Shanghai Composite Stock Index fell more than -2% today to a 4-week low after the China Jan manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.8 to 49.3, weaker than expectations of no change at 50.1.  Also, the Jan non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.8 to 49.4, weaker than expectations of an increase to 50.3 and the steepest pace of contraction in three years.

The markets this week will focus on tariff news, earnings, and economic news.  On Tuesday, the Dec JOLTS job openings are expected to increase by +104,000 to 7.250 million.  On Wednesday, the Jan ADP employment change is expected to increase by +45,000. Also, the Jan ISM services index is expected to fall by -0.3 to 53.5.  On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to increase by 3,000 to 212,000.  On Friday, Jan nonfarm payrolls are expected to climb by +65,000 and the Jan unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%.  Also, Jan average hourly earnings are expected up +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y.  Finally, the University of Michigan Jan consumer sentiment index is expected to fall -1.5 to 54.9.   

Q4 earnings season is in full swing, with 150 of the S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 78% of the 167 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, the tenth consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting an 11% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up by +1.12%.  China’s Shanghai Composite fell to a 4-week low and closed down -2.48%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell from a 2.5-week high and closed down -1.25%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down by -8 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.8 bp to 4.273%.  T-notes gave up an early advance and turned lower today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1.5-week high of 4.281% after the Jan ISM manufacturing index expanded by the most in more than 3.25 years, dampening expectations of further Fed rate cuts. Also, strength in stocks today has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes.

T-notes also have some negative carryover from last Friday when President Trump nominated Keven Warsh as the next Fed Chair.  Mr. Warsh is seen as more hawkish than other Fed Chair candidates and often emphasized inflation risks during his tenure as a Fed Governor from 2006-2011. 

European government bond yields are mixed today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +2.6 bp to 2.869%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -0.8 bp to 4.513%.

The Eurozone Jan S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 49.5 from the previously reported 49.4.

German Dec retail sales rose +0.1% m/m, right on expectations, and Nov retail sales were revised upward by +0.1 to -0.5% m/m from the previously reported -0.6% m/m.

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.

US Stock Movers

Chip makers and AI infrastructure stocks are rebounding today, lifting the overall market.  Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after CTBC Securities Investment Service Co Ltd initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $660. Also, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Western Digital (WDC), Micron Technology (MU), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel (INTC) are up more than +4%.  In addition, Lam Research (LRCX) is up more than +3%, and Microchip Technology (MCHP), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +2%. 

US rare-earth stocks are climbing today as President Trump is set to launch a strategic stockpile of critical minerals with $12 billion in seed money to lower reliance on China.  As a result, USA Rare Earth (USAR) is up more than +12%, and United States Antimony Corp (UAMY) is up more than +6%. Also,  MP Materials (MP) and Critical Metals Corp (CRML) are up more than +4%.

Energy producers and energy service companies are retreating today, with WTI crude oil down by more than -4%.  ConocoPhillips (COP), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), APA Corp (APA), and Chevron (CVX) are down more than -2%.  Also, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Halliburton (HAL), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -1%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are selling off today, with Bitcoin plunging more than -7% to a 9.75-month low.  Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down more than -4%, and Strategy (MSTR), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Coinbase (COIN) are down more than -2%.  Also, Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down more than -1%. 

Teradyne Inc (TER) is up more than +5% after Alethia Capital Limited initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $400.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up more than +3% after William Blair upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform. 

Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +3% after stating it plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion this year through a combination of debt and equity sales to build additional cloud infrastructure capacity.   

Autodesk (ADSK) is up more than +3% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $319.

Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than +1% after Raymond James raised its price target on the stock to $55 from $49.

Walt Disney (DIS) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after several analysts said the company’s quarterly outlook for Q2 was disappointing.

IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) is down more than -4% after reporting Q4 gross margin of 60.3%, below the consensus of 61%. 

Humana (HUM) is down more than -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $174.

Tesla (TSLA) is down more than -2% on signs that weak European car sales are continuing after French Jan Tesla sales fell -42% y/y and Norway Jan Tesla sales fell -88% y/y.

Earnings Reports(2/2/2026)

Aptiv PLC (APTV), DaVita Inc (DVA), Healthpeak Properties Inc (DOC), IDEXX Laboratories Inc (IDXX), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR), Revvity Inc (RVTY), Simon Property Group Inc (SPG), Teradyne Inc (TER), Tyson Foods Inc (TSN), Walt Disney Co/The (DIS).