Stocks Rally on Signs of US Economic Resilience

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.84%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.63%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.20%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.87%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +1.25%.

Stock indexes are moving higher today on solid US economic news that indicates a resilient economy.  Today’s reports on Dec capital goods new orders, Dec housing starts and building permits, and Jan manufacturing production were better-than-expected and bullish for stocks.  Also, AI jitters temporarily eased, lifting chipmakers and software stocks.  After months of gains in technology stocks fueled by AI optimism, equity markets have turned cautious amid doubts that heavy spending will yield meaningful returns or that new AI tools will disrupt many sectors of the economy, including finance, logistics, software, and trucking. 

US MBA mortgage applications rose +2.8% in the week ended February 13, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -2.7% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +7.1%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -4 bp to 6.17% from 6.21% in the prior week. 

US Dec capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts (a proxy for capital spending) rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations o +0.3% m/m.

US Dec housing starts rose +6.2% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.404 million, stronger than expectations of 1.304 million.  Dec building permits (a proxy for future construction) rose +4.2% m/m to a 9-month high of 1.448 million, stronger than expectations of 1.400 million.

US Jan manufacturing production rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and the biggest increase in 11 months.

The market’s focus this week will be on corporate earnings results and economic news.  Later today, the minutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting will be released.  On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to decline by -2,000 to 225,000.  Also, the Feb Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to fall by -5.3 to 7.3.  In addition, the Dec trade deficit is expected to widen to -$86.0 billion. Finally, Jan pending home sales are expected to increase by +2.0% m/m.  On Friday, Q4 GDP is expected to expand by +3.0% (q/q annualized), and the Q4 core price index is expected to climb by +2.6%.  Also, Dec personal spending is expected to rise by +0.4% m/m and Dec personal income is expected to be up +0.3% m/m.  In addition, the Dec core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) is expected to be up +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y.  The Feb S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 52.4, and Dec new home sales will be released.  Finally, the University of Michigan Feb consumer sentiment index is expected to remain unrevised at 57.3.

Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more than three-quarters of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 75% of the 379 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 6% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.13%.  China’s Shanghai Composite is closed for the week-long Lunar New Year holidays.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.02%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down by -6 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.1 bp to 4.079%.  T-notes are under pressure today from the strength in equity markets, which has curbed safe-haven demand for government debt.  Also, today’s stronger-than-expected US economic reports on Dec capital goods new orders, Dec housing starts and building permits, and Jan manufacturing production are weighing on T-notes.  In addition, supply pressures are undercutting T-notes as the Treasury will auction $16 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today.

European government bond yields are mixed today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.6 bp to 2.743%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -0.1 bp to 4.375%.

UK Jan CPI rose +3.0% y/y, right on expectations and the smallest pace of increase in 10 months.  Jan core CPI rose +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.0% y/y.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are moving higher today, supporting gains in the broader market.  Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up more than +5%, and Micron Technology (MU) and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +4%.  Also, Applied Materials (AMAT), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Nvidia (NVDA), Lam Research (LRCX), and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) are up more than +2%.  In addition, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +1%.  

Silver and gold mining stocks are climbing today as gold and silver prices rebound sharply from Tuesday’s sell-off.  Hecla Mining (HL) is up more than +10%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) is up more than +6%. Also, Barrick Mining (B) is up more than +4%, and Newmont Corp (NEM) and Anglogold Ashanti (AU) are up more than +3%. In addition, Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is up more than +2%.

Global-e Online Ltd (GLBE) is up more than +16% after forecasting full-year revenue of $1.21 billion to $1.27 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.19 billion. 

Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is up more than +15% after reporting Q4 same-store adjusted Ebitda of $901.0 million, above the consensus of $900.1 million. 

Global Payments (GPN) is up more than +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS, including SBC, of $ 13.80 to $14.00, well above the consensus of $13.59. 

Garmin Ltd (GRMN) is up more than +10% after reporting Q4 revenue of $2.12 billion, above the consensus of $2.00 billion, and forecasting full-year revenue of $7.90 billion, stronger than the consensus of $7.61 billion.

Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) is up more than +9% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.99, better than the consensus of $1.91, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $8.05 to $8.15, above the consensus of $8.03.

Insulet (PODD) is up more than +8% after reporting Q4 revenue of $783.8 million, stronger than the consensus of $768.6 million.

Pitney Bowes (PBI) is up more than +7% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of 45 cents, above the consensus of 38 cents, and forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.60, stronger than the consensus of $1.38. 

Analog Devices (ADI) is up more than +3% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.46, better than the consensus of $2.31. 

Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) is down more than -18% after forecasting Q1 adjusted EPS of 71 cents, well below the consensus of 99 cents.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $3.65 to $3.70, below the consensus of $3.87.  

Charles River Laboratories International (CRL) is down more than -4% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $10.70 to $11.20, the midpoint below the consensus of $11.04.

Republic Services (RSG) is down more than -4% after reporting Q4 revenue of $4.14 billion, weaker than the consensus of $4.21 billion, and forecasting 2026 revenue of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion, below the consensus of %17.32 billion.

Applied Digital (APLD) is down more than -2% after Nvidia said it exited its equity investment in the company. 

Genuine Parts Co (GPC) is down more than -2%, adding to Tuesday’s -14% plunge after reporting Q4 net sales of $6.01 billion, weaker than the consensus of $6.06 billion. 

Knife River Corp (KNF) is down more than -2% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $81.

Earnings Reports(2/18/2026)

American Water Works Co Inc (AWK), Analog Devices Inc (ADI), Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG), Carvana Co (CVNA), CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF), Charles River Laboratories Int (CRL), Constellation Energy Corp (CEG), CRH PLC (CRH), DoorDash Inc (DASH), eBay Inc (EBAY), Edison International (EIX), Garmin Ltd (GRMN), Global Payments Inc (GPN), Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST), Insulet Corp (PODD), Invitation Homes Inc (INVH), Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP), Moody's Corp (MCO), Nordson Corp (NDSN), Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY), Omnicom Group Inc (OMC), Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL), Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK).