Stocks Slump on Iran War and Weakness in Chipmakers

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Thursday closed down -1.74%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -1.01%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -2.38%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) fell -1.72%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) fell -2.34%.

Stock indexes sold off sharply on Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 6.5-month low.  Stocks slumped on Thursday amid soaring oil prices, as uncertainty persists over Iran’s willingness to engage in talks on a ceasefire.  WTI crude oil prices jumped more than +4% on Thursday after Axios reported the Pentagon is developing military options for a “final blow” in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign.  President Trump said Thursday that Iran had “better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is no turning back, and it won’t be pretty.” 

Higher bond yields also undercut stocks on Thursday, as a jump in crude oil prices boosted inflation expectations and pushed yields higher, with the 10-year T-note yield rising by 9 bp to 4.42%.

The weakness in chip makers on Thursday also weighed on the broader market, following a new compression technique proposed by Google researchers that could reduce the memory needed for AI workloads.  Most of the Magnificent Seven technology stocks also retreated on Thursday, weighing on the overall market.

Thursday’s jobless claims report suggests the labor market is holding up.  US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +5,000 to 210,000, right on expectations. Weekly continuing claims fell -32,000 to a 1.75-year low of 1.819 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 1.849 million.

The US Mar Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity survey unexpectedly rose +6 to a 3.5-year high of 11, stronger than expectations of a decline to 3.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its G-20 inflation forecast for 2026 to 4.0% from a December estimate of 2.8%, due to the war in Iran.

There are concerns that the Iran war could escalate throughout the Middle East.  Saudi Arabia agreed to give the US military access to King Fahd Air Base, and the UAE closed an Iranian-owned hospital and club.  Iran’s Middle Eastern neighbors are growing frustrated with Iran, which has responded to US and Israeli attacks by hitting targets in several nearby nations.  

Crude oil prices (CLK26) remain high despite attempts to boost global supplies.  The IEA on March 11 released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.  Iran is also seeking to control ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, asking vessels to provide lists of crew and cargo, along with voyage details and bills of lading if they want to travel through the waterway.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

The International Energy Agency said Monday that more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains once the war in Iran ends. 

The markets are discounting a 6% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets settled lower on Thursday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -1.48%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -1.09%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.27%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Thursday closed down by -23 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +8.8 bp to 4.420%.  June T-notes were under pressure on Thursday from a +4% jump in WTI crude oil prices, which raises inflation expectations.  Also, Thursday’s decline in US weekly continuing unemployment claims to a 1.75-year low signals labor market strength that is hawkish for Fed policy. T-notes fell to their lows Thursday afternoon on weak demand for the Treasury’s $44 billion of 7-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43, well below the 10-auction average of 2.53. 

European government bond yields moved higher on Thursday.  The 10-year German bund yield rose +11.6 bp to 3.074%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +13.5 bp to 4.974%.

Eurozone Feb M3 money supply rose +3.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.2% y/y.

The German Apr GfK consumer confidence index fell -3.2 to a 2-year low of -28.0, weaker than expectations of -27.3.

Swaps are discounting a 73% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Chip makers were under pressure on Thursday amid a new compression technique proposed by Google researchers that could reduce the memory required for AI workloads. Sandisk (SNDK) closed down more than -9%, and Lam Research (LRCX) and Applied Materials (AMAT) closed down more than -8%.  Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), and Western Digital (WDC) closed down more than -7%, and Micron Technology (MU), Intel (INTC), and KLA Corp (KLAC) closed down more than -6%.  In addition, ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed down more than -4%, and Analog Devices (ADI) and Broadcom (AVGO) closed down more than -2%.

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks moved lower on Thursday, weighing on the overall market. Meta Platforms (META) closed down more than -7%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed down more than -3% after several analysts said litigation over social media’s addictive design will be an ongoing headline risk in 2026.  Also, Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than -4%, and Tesla (TSLA) closed down more than -3%.  In addition, Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) closed down more than -1%, while Apple (AAPL) bucked the trend and closed up +0.11%.

Mining stocks retreated on Thursday after gold prices fell more than -3% and silver prices slumped more than -7%.  Coeur Mining (CDE) closed down more than -9%, and Hecla Mining (HL) closed down more than -6%.  Also, Anglogold Ashanti (AU), Southern Copper (SCCO), and Barrick Mining (B) closed down more than -3%, and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed down more than -2%.

Energy producers and energy service providers gained on Thursday as WTI crude oil prices rose more than +4%.  Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +5%, and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) closed up more than +4%.  Also, APA Corp (APA), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) closed up more than +3%, and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) closed up more than +2% 

MillerKnoll (MLKN) closed down more than -22% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of 43 cents, below the consensus of 45 cents, and forecasting Q4 adjusted EPS of 49 cents to 55 cents, weaker than the consensus of 61 cents.

Timken Co (TKR) closed down more than -2% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $100.

Kodiak Sciences (KOD) closed up more than +75% after releasing efficacy data from a late-stage trial of its drug Zenkuda for diabetic retinopathy that showed statistical improvement in a control group.

Brown-Forman (BF.B) closed up more than +9% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 on reports that Pernod Ricard SA is seeking to acquire the company.

United Natural Foods (UNFI) closed up more than +3% after Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $56. 

Tyson Foods (TSN) closed up more than +2% after Mizuho Securities initiated coverage on the stock with an outperform rating and a price target of $72.

Earnings Reports(3/27/2026)

Carnival Corp (CCL).