Stocks Finish Higher on Solid Earnings and a Resilient Labor Market

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed up +0.84%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +2.35%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.79%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +2.37%.

Stock indexes settled higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs.  Chipmaker and AI-infrastructure stocks led the overall market higher on Friday, offsetting concerns about the Iran war.  Stronger-than-expected corporate earnings are pushing stocks higher.  Weakness in software stocks on Friday weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Stock indexes also found support today on signs of resiliency in the US labor market after April nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected and March nonfarm payrolls were revised upward.  Stocks rallied on Friday despite a larger-than-expected decline in US consumer sentiment to a record low.

US Apr nonfarm payrolls rose by +115,000, stronger than expectations of +65,000, and Mar nonfarm payrolls were revised upward to +185,000 from the previously reported +178,000.  The Apr unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, right on expectations.

US Apr average hourly earnings rose +0.2% m/m and +3.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y.

The University of Michigan’s US May consumer sentiment index fell -1.6 to a record low of 48.2 (data from 1978), weaker than expectations of 49.5.

The University of Michigan US May 1-year inflation expectations rate unexpectedly eased to +4.5% from +4.7% in Apr, weaker than expectations of an increase to 4.8%.  The May 5-10 year inflation expectations rate unexpectedly eased to +3.4%, weaker than expectations of no change at +3.5%.

In the latest developments in the Middle East, Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency said Iran seized an oil tanker on Friday in the Strait of Hormuz for "attempting to disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation."  Also, US forces targeted missile and drone launch sites and other military assets in Iran that were responsible for attacking three US Navy destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.  The US is awaiting a response from Iran on a proposed deal to reopen the strait, and President Trump has threatened intense strikes if Iran refuses the deal. 

WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) moved higher on Friday amid a report that Iran seized an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz for “violations.”  Crude also has support from a report that said the US is looking to restart military operations as soon as next week to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz with naval and air support.  The strait remains essentially closed, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June.

The markets are discounting a 6% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

Earnings reports thus far in this reporting season have been supportive of stocks.  As of Friday, 83% of the 446 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates.  Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

Overseas stock markets settled lower on Friday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -1.02%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 2-month high and closed unchanged.  Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closed down by -0.19%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Friday closed up +7.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -2.1 bp to 4.365%.  T-notes moved higher on Friday amid an increase in safe-haven demand after Iran seized an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and US forces attacked missile and drone launch sites in Iran that were responsible for attacking three US Navy destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.  T-notes added to their gains on Friday after US consumer sentiment fell more than expected to a record low, and inflation expectations eased.  

Friday’s US unemployment report was mixed for T-notes. Weaker-than-expected April hourly earnings suggested slack wage pressures and were supportive of T-notes. However, gains in T-notes were limited after April nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected. 

European government bond yields are lower today.  The 10-year German Bund yield rose +0.2 bp to 3.005%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 2-week low of 4.864% and finished down -3.6 bp to 4.912%.

German Mar industrial production unexpectedly fell by -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.4% m/m increase.

German trade news was better than expected, with Mar exports rising +0.5% m/m versus expectations of -1.5% m/m.  Also, Mar imports rose +5.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the biggest increase in 2.75 years.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the most important determinant for interest rates at the ECB's June meeting will be "whether Hormuz is reopened or not."

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said, "If the energy-price shock broadens, monetary policy will need to tighten to contain the risk of second-round effects threatening medium-term price stability."

ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the ECB is "highly vigilant" about rising inflation risks from the Iran war and will act as needed to prevent higher energy costs from spilling over into broader prices.

Swaps are discounting a 79% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks moved higher on Friday to lift the overall market.  Sandisk (SNDK) closed up more than +15% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Micron Technology (MU) closed up more than +14%.  Also, Intel (INTC) closed up more than +13%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed up more than +10%.  In addition, Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up more than +8%, and Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +5%.  Finally, ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed up more than +4%, and Lam Research (LRCX), Broadcom (AVGO), and Western Digital (WDC) closed up more than +2%. 

Mining stocks moved higher on Friday as gold, silver, and copper prices rallied.  Anglogold Ashanti (AU) closed up more than +7%, and Southern Copper (SCCO) and Barrick Mining (B) closed up more than +3%.  Also, Coeur Mining (CDE), Hecla Mining (HL), and Newmont Corp (NEM) closed up more than +2%, and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed up more than +1%. 

Software stocks were on the defensive on Friday, limiting gains in the broader market.  Salesforce (CRM), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), ServiceNow (NOW), and Intuit (INTU) closed down more than -2%.  Also, Adobe (ADBE) and Microsoft (MSFT) closed down more than -1%.   

Fluence Energy (FLNC) closed up more than +27% after Roth Capital Partners upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $26.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) closed up more than +26% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after raising its full-year revenue forecast to $4.45 billion to $4.55 billion, the midpoint above the consensus of $4.47 billion, and announcing that an AI model provider had committed $1.8 billion over seven years for its Cloud Infrastructure Services. 

Monster Beverage (MNST) closed up more than +13% after reporting Q1 net sales of $2.35 billion, better than the consensus of $2.15 billion. 

Corpay (CPAY) closed up more than +12% after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.26 billion, above the consensus of $1.21 billion, and raising its full-year revenue estimate to $5.25 billion to $5.33 billion from a previous estimate of %5.22 billion to $5.32 billion.

Iren Ltd (IREN) closed up more than +8% after announcing that it signed a five-year $3.4 billion AI Cloud contract with Nvidia. 

Block (XYZ) closed up more than +7% after reporting a Q1 adjusted EPS of 85 cents, stronger than the consensus of 67 cents, and raising its full-year profit forecast to $12.33 billion from a previous estimate of $12.20 billion, above the consensus of $12.15 billion. 

Wendy’s (WEN) closed up more than +5% after reporting Q1 revenue of $540.6 million, stronger than the consensus of $517.7. 

Cloudflare (NET) closed down more than -23% after it forecast Q2 revenue of $664 million to $665 million, below the consensus of $666.1 million.

HubSpot (HUBS) closed down more than -18% after forecasting Q2 revenue of $897 million to $898 million, weaker than the consensus of $899.4 million.

Mettler-Toledo International (MTD) closed down more than -14% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $10.70 to $10.84, below the consensus of $10.94.

MercadoLibre (MELI) closed down more than -12% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q1 EPS of $8.23, weaker than the consensus of $8.51. 

CoreWeave (CRWV) closed down more than -11% after reporting a Q1 loss per share of -$1.40, wider than the consensus of -$1.20 pe share.

Expedia Group (EXPE) closed down more than -9% after forecasting Q2 gross bookings of $32.5 billion to $33.1 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $33.0 billion.

Fidelity National Information (FIS) closed down more than -7% after forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.45 to $1.49, the midpoint below the consensus of $1.49.

Earnings Reports(5/11/2026)

AECOM (ACM), Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM), AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS), Certara Inc (CERT), Circle Internet Group Inc (CRCL), Constellation Energy Corp (CEG), Figure Technology Solutions Inc (FIGR), Fox Corp (FOXA), Halozyme Therapeutics Inc (HALO), Mosaic Co/The (MOS), Ovintiv Inc (OVV), Simon Property Group Inc (SPG), STERIS PLC (STE), ZoomInfo Technologies Inc (GTM).