Stocks Fall as Iran War Drags On

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.13%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.50%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.174%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.50%.

Stocks are moving lower today as the war in Iran drags on for a twenty-fifth day.  WTI crude oil is up more than +4% today, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +4 bp to 4.38%. The strength in energy producers today is limiting downside in stocks.  Renewed tensions risks are keeping oil prices elevated as Iran launched missile and drone strikes today on several cities in Israel, as well as US bases in the Middle East.  Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a drone in its eastern region, and Kuwait said some power lines were knocked out of service after an Iranian attack. 

The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have taken steps toward joining the Iran war, potentially signaling an escalation of the fighting.  Saudi Arabia agreed to give the US military access to King Fahd Air Base, and the UAE closed an Iranian-owned hospital and club.  Iran’s Middle Eastern neighbors are growing frustrated with Iran, which has responded to US and Israeli attacks by hitting targets in several nearby nations. 

Today’s US economic news was mostly better than expected and supportive of stocks.  Q4 nonfarm productivity was left unrevised at +1.8%, but Q4 unit labor costs were revised upward to +4.4% from +2.8%, stronger than expectations of +3.6%. Also, the Mar S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.8 to 52.4, stronger than expectations of a decline to 51.5.  In addition, the Mar Richmond Fed manufacturing survey of current conditions rose +10 to a 13-month high of 0, better than expectations of -8.

The markets are awaiting the next headlines in the Iran war after stocks rallied sharply on Monday, after President Trump said strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants would be postponed for five days following the start of talks with Iran to end the war. Mr. Trump said the US held productive talks on a comprehensive resolution of hostilities in the Middle East and that the discussion would continue throughout the week. 

Crude oil prices (CLK26) remain high despite attempts to boost global supplies.  The IEA on March 11 released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.  The International Energy Agency said Monday that more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains once the war in Iran ends.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

The markets are discounting an 8% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.70%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.78%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.43%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -13 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +4.2 bp to 4.384%.  June T-notes are under pressure today with the +4% jump in crude oil prices, which has boosted inflation expectations.  Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-note prices, as the Treasury will auction $69 billion of 2-year T-notes later today as part of this week's slate of $211 billion in T-note and floating-rate note auctions.  T-note yields have risen sharply over the past three weeks on concern that surging energy prices from the Iran war will boost inflation and even force the Fed to tighten monetary policy. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.8 bp to 3.023%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +1.3 bp to 4.933%.

The Eurozone Mar S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.6 to 51.4, stronger than expectations of a decline to 49.6 and the strongest pace of expansion in 3.75 years.  The Mar S&P composite PMI fell -1.4 to a 10-month low of 50.5, weaker than expectations of 51.0.

Eurozone Feb new car registrations rose +1.4% y/y to 865,000.

ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic, who will become ECB Vice President in June, said the ECB must be "very agile and vigilant" to keep prices in check as the war in Iran brings stagflation risks closer. 

The UK Mar S&P manufacturing PMI fell -0.3 to 51.4, stronger than expectations of 50.0.

Swaps are discounting a 73% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Software companies are slumping today, weighing on the broader market.  Atlassian (TEAM) is down more than -6%, and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is down more than -5%.  Also, Salesforce (CRM) is down by more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones industrials, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Intuit (INTU), and Workday (WDAY) are down more than -4%.  In addition, ServiceNow (NOW), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Oracle (ORCL), Datadog (DDOG), and Autodesk (ADSK) are down more than -3%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving lower today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -1%.  Coinbase Global (COIN) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and MARA Holdings (MARA) is down more than -4%.  Also, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down more than -2%, and Strategy (MSTR) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are down more than -1%. 

Asset managers are under pressure today after Ares Management joined Apollo Global Management in curbing redemptions from its private credit funds.  Apollo Global Management (APO) is down more than -2%, and Ares Management (ARES), Blackstone (BX), and Blue Owl Capital (OWL) are down more than -1%. 

Energy producers and energy service providers are rallying today with WTI crude oil up more than +4%. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and APA Corp (APA) are up more than +5%, and Diamondback Energy (FANG) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Devon Energy (DVN), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Phillips 66 (PSX) are up more than +3%, and Halliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BKR), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +2%. 

Estee Lauder (EL) is down more than -7%, adding to Monday’s -7% plunge on news that it is nearing a deal to acquire Puig Brands.

Xencor Inc. (XNCR) is down more than -6% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight.

Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) closed down more than -5%, adding to Monday’s -5% decline after Politico reported Senator Hawley asking the FTC to probe the “anticompetitive” practices of the company.

Solventum Corp. (SOLV) is down more than -3% after Rothschild & Co Redburn initiated coverage on the stock with a sell recommendation and a price target of $60. 

Dollar General (DG) is down more than -1% after the company announced that Jerry Fleeman would succeed Todd Vasos as CEO, effective January 1, 2027. 

Netgear (NTGR) is up more than +17% after the US Federal Communications Commission ordered a ban on the import of new models of foreign-produced consumer wireless routers. 

Applies Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is up more than +11% after receiving a new $53 million order for its 800G single-mode data center transceivers. 

Smithfield Foods (SFD) is up more than +4% after reporting Q4 revenue of $4.23 billion, stronger than the consensus of $4.14 billion. 

Jeffries Financial Group (JEF) is up more than +3% after the Financial Times reported that Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is working on plans for a potential takeover of the company.

Earnings Reports(3/24/2026)

Concentrix Corp (CNXC), Core & Main Inc (CNM), GameStop Corp (GME), Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD).