The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.41%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.80%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.39%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.88%.
Stock indexes are under pressure today on some mixed megacap technology earnings results. Meta Platforms is up more than +7% after giving a revenue outlook that was much stronger than expected. Also, International Business Machines is up more than +7% after reporting Q4 results that beat expectations. However, Microsoft is sinking more than -10% after reporting underwhelming growth in its cloud business and higher-than-expected expenses.
WTI crude oil (CLH26) prices are up more than +4% to a 4.25-month high today to lift energy producers after President Trump on Wednesday said that he wants Iran to come to the table and negotiate a nuclear deal that is “a fair and equitable deal with No Nuclear Weapons.” He warned Iran that time is running out to make a deal with the US, noting that a fleet of US warships entering the region is ready to complete their mission “with speed and violence.”
Precious metals are soaring today, with gold (GCG26) and silver (SIH26) up more than +3% to new record highs and copper (HGH26) up more than +8% to an all-time high. Concerns over dollar weakness and uncertain US policies are fueling investor flight from dollar assets into precious metals as the debasement trade picks up steam.
US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -1,000 to 209,000, showing a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of 205,000. However, continuing claims fell -38,000 to a 6-month low of 1.827 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 1.850 million.
The US Nov trade deficit was -$56.8 billion, wider than expectations of -$44.0 billion and the largest deficit in 4 months.
Threats to stocks and the dollar remain. President Trump has threatened new 100% tariffs on US imports from Canada, the possibility of a US government shutdown over ICE funding, and lingering concerns about Greenland. In addition, there is the risk of another partial government shutdown. Senate Democrats threatened to block a government funding deal over Department of Homeland Security/ICE funding after the ICE shooting of an ICU nurse in Minnesota on Saturday. There could be a partial government shutdown when the current stopgap funding measure expires this Friday.
The market’s focus this week will be on new tariff news and the prospects for a continued resolution (CR) to fund the government. Later today, Nov factory offers are expected to increase by +1.6% m/m. On Friday, Dec PPI final demand is expected to ease to +2.8% y/y from +3.0% y/y in Nov, and Dec PPI ex-food and energy is expected to ease to +2.9% y/y from +3.0% y/y in Nov. Also, the Jan MNI Chicago PMI is expected to climb by +0.8 to 43.5.
Q4 earnings season is in full swing, with 102 of the S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week. Apple reports after the close today. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 81% of the 106 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.6% in Q4. Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting a 14% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up by +0.59%. China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a 2-week high and closed up +0.16%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.03%.
Interest Rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down -2 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.2 bp to 4.265%. T-notes are under pressure today amid rising inflation expectations, as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 4-month high of 2.378%. Also, supply pressures are undercutting T-notes, as the Treasury will auction $44 billion of 7-year T-notes later today. Losses in T-notes are limited after weekly jobless claims were higher than expected.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield slid to a 1-week low of 2.839% is down -0.6 bp to 2.851%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 2.25-month high of 4.566% and is down by -1.6 bp at 4.527%.
The Eurozone Jan economic confidence indicator rose +2.2 to a 3-year high of 99.4, stronger than expectations of 97.1.
Eurozone Dec M3 money supply rose +2.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.0% y/y.
Swaps are discounting a 0% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.
US Stock Movers
Energy producers and energy service providers are rallying today with WTI crude up more than +4% at a 4.25-month high. APA Corp (APA) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are up more than +4%, and ConocoPhillips (COP), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Halliburton (HAL), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +3%. Also, Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Phillips 66 (PSX) are up more than +2%.
Microsoft (MSFT) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials on disappointment that Q2 Azure and other cloud services revenue ex-forex could not beat expectations, up +38% y/y, right on consensus.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is down more than -11% after reporting its Q4 Macau operations adjusted property Ebitda of $608 million, weaker than the consensus of $626.1 million.
ServiceNow (NOW) is down more than -11% after reporting Q4 adjusted gross margin of 80.5%, weaker than the consensus of 81.2%.
HubSpot (HUBS) is down more than -10% after BMO Capital Markets cut its price target on the stock to $385 from $465.
Whirlpool (WHR) is down more than -9% after reporting Q4 net sales of $4.10 billion, below the consensus of $4.26 billion, and forecasting full-year ongoing EPS of about $7.00, weaker than the consensus of $7.23.
Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) is down more than -5% after reporting Q4 net sales of $3.90 billion, weaker than the consensus of $3.99 billion, and forecasting full-year comparable sales up +1% to +3%, the midpoint below the consensus of +2.96%.
Dow Inc. (DOW) is down more than -5% after reporting Q4 net sales of $9.46 billion, below the consensus of $9.50 billion.
Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q4 revenue of $59.89 billion, better than the consensus of $58.42 billion, and forecasting Q1 revenue of $53.5 billion-$56.5 billion, well above the consensus of $51.27 billion.
International Business Machines (IBM) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q4 revenue of $19.69 billion, stronger than the consensus of $19.21 billion.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) is up more than +15% to lead cruise stocks higher and gainers in the S&P 500 after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $17.70 to $18.10, stronger than the consensus of $17.67. Also, Carnival (CCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are up more than +6%.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) is up more than +8% after reporting Q4 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.23, better than the consensus of $1.13.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up more than +7% after forecasting full-year EPS of $29.35 to $30.25, well above the consensus of $29.09.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than +6% after forecasting Q1 adjusted EPS of at least 45 cents, well above the consensus of 28 cents.
Earnings Reports(1/29/2026)
A O Smith Corp (AOS), Altria Group Inc (MO), Ameriprise Financial Inc (AMP), Apple Inc (AAPL), Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG), Blackstone Inc (BX), Caterpillar Inc (CAT), Comcast Corp (CMCSA), Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK), Dover Corp (DOV), Dow Inc (DOW), Hartford Insurance Group Inc/The (HIG), Hologic Inc (HOLX), Honeywell International Inc (HON), International Paper Co (IP), KLA Corp (KLAC), L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX), Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT), Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MRSH), Mastercard Inc (MA), Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ), Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC), Parker-Hannifin Corp (PH), PulteGroup Inc (PHM), ResMed Inc (RMD), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), Sandisk Corp/DE (SNDK), Sherwin-Williams Co/The (SHW), Southwest Airlines Co (LUV), Stryker Corp (SYK), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO), Tractor Supply Co (TSCO), Trane Technologies PLC (TT), Valero Energy Corp (VLO), Visa Inc (V), Western Digital Corp (WDC), Weyerhaeuser Co (WY).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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