Stocks Climb on Hopes for an End to Iran War

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +1.02%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.67%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.10%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +1.10%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +1.15%.

Stock indexes are moving sharply higher today after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump had signaled he was willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.  The report said Mr. Trump believes the US should wind down hostilities while pressuring Iran diplomatically to reopen the Strait.  If that fails, the US will press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the waterway.  US and Israeli forces pressed ahead with attacks on Iran today, while Iran hit a Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai in a drone attack, and the UAE reported a drone attack. 

Falling bond yields are also supportive of stocks, as the 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 1-week low of 4.30% today.  Bond yields are declining amid hopes that an end to the Iran war will lower energy prices, easing inflation concerns.  Stocks also found support today after the US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose.  Stock indexes fell back from their best levels as crude prices rose more than +1% to a 3-week high.

The US Jan S&P CaseShiller composite-20 home price index rose +1.18% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.38% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 2.5 years. 

The US Mar MNI Chicago PMI fell -4.9 to 52.8, weaker than expectations of 55.0.

The Conference Board US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose +0.8 to 91.8, stronger than expectations of a decline to 87.9.

US Feb JOLTS job openings fell -358,000 to 6.882 million, weaker than expectations of 6.890 million.

Signs of strength in China’s economy are supportive for global growth prospects and stocks.  The China March manufacturing PMI rose +1.4 to 50.4, better than expectations of 50.1 and the strongest pace of expansion in a year.  Also, the China March non-manufacturing PMI rose by +0.6 to 50.1, better than expectations of 49.9.

Crude oil prices (CLK26) rose to a 3-week high today and remain supported despite President Trump signaling he is willing to end the war with Iran, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.  Iran is also seeking to control ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, asking vessels to provide lists of crew and cargo, along with voyage details and bills of lading if they want to travel through the waterway.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

The International Energy Agency said last Monday that more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains once the war in Iran ends. 

The markets are discounting a 3% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.83%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 1-week high and closed down -0.80%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-month low and closed down -1.58%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +8 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.8 bp to 4.321%.  June T-notes rose to a 1-week high today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low of 4.295%.  T-notes are climbing today on hopes that an end to the Iran war will lower energy prices and ease inflation concerns.  T-notes fell from their best level after the US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -0.6 bp to 3.029%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -2.0 bp to 4.914%.

Eurozone Mar CPI rose +2.5% y/y, the most in 14 months, but below expectations of +2.6% y/y.  Mar core CPI rose +2.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.4% y/y.

German Feb retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.3% m/m increase.

ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said, "The ECB can't rule out changes in interest rates already in April if energy prices remain at a high level for a long time."

Swaps are discounting a 50% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are climbing today, helping lift the overall market.  Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta Platforms (META) are up more than +3%, and Amazon.com (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), and Alphabet (GOOGL) are up more than +2%.  In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) is up more than +1%, and Apple (AAPL) is up +0.48%. 

Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and chip stocks are higher after Nvidia said it is investing $2 billion in the company.  Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +6%, and Western Digital (WDC), ON Semiconductor (ON), and Sandisk (SNDK) are up more than +5%.  In addition, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is up more than +4%, and Lam Research (LRCX), Broadcom (AVGO), Intel (INTC), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are up more than +3%.  Finally, NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), KLA Corp (KLAC), Applied Materials (AMAT), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) are up more than +2%.

Home builders and building suppliers are moving higher today after the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low, which lowers mortgage rates and supports housing demand. Builders Firstsource (BLDR) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are up more than +2%.  Also, Lennar (LEN) and Pulte Group (PHM) are up more than +1%, and KB Home (KBH) is up more +0.42%, and DR Horton (DHI) is up +0.40%. 

Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) is up more than +136% after being acquired by Biogen for $5.6 billion, or about $41 a share.  Biogen (BIIB) is down more than -4% on the news.

Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) is up more than +44% after Eli Lilly agreed to buy the company for about $7.8 billion or $38 a share, plus a further $9 a share if three milestone targets are met. 

Scholar Rock (SRRK) is up by more than +12% after it resubmitted its Biologics License Application for apitegromab, a muscle-targeted therapy for spinal muscular atrophy.

FactSet Research Systems (FDS) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 revenue of $611 million, better than the consensus of $604.9 million, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $2.45 billion to $2.47 billion from a previous estimate of $2.42 billion to $2.45 billion, above the consensus of $2.45 billion. 

Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is up more than +5% after saying it plans to build a 310-megawatt server facility in Finland. 

Phreesia (PHR) is down more than -26% after cutting its 2027 revenue forecast to $510 million to $520 million from a previous forecast of $545 million to $559 million, well below the consensus of $550.9 million. 

Constellation Energy (CEG) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after forecasting 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $11 to $12.00, the midpoint below the consensus of $11.72. 

McCormick & Co (MKC) is down more than -6% after agreeing to acquire Unilever’s Food business for $15.7 billion in cash and $29.7 billion of stock. 

Colgate-Palmolive (CL) is down more than -2% after TD Cowen downgraded the stock to hold from buy. 

Earnings Reports(3/31/2026)

FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS), McCormick & Co Inc/MD (MKC), nCino Inc (NCNO), NIKE Inc (NKE), PVH Corp (PVH), RH (RH), TD SYNNEX Corp (SNX).