Dear Tesla Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for April 21

Tesla (TSLA) shareholders have had a lot to digest lately. The company's Q4 2025 earnings call was packed with bold promises: from unsupervised robotaxis rolling through Austin to a million Optimus robots a year coming out of Fremont.

But there's something else in the near-term calendar that could meaningfully move the needle for TSLA stock. It doesn't involve a delivery report or an earnings beat. It involves a rocket company.

Why SpaceX's April 21 Event Matters for Tesla Investors

SpaceX is hosting an analyst day on April 21. According to Reuters, the rocket company has confidentially filed for an initial public offering (IPO) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

Two days after the analyst event, analysts will be invited to visit the "Macrohard" xAI data center in Memphis, a facility that sits at the center of Musk's growing artificial intelligence empire.

CNBC, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that SpaceX could seek a valuation of $1.75 trillion when it eventually goes public, possibly around June. A SpaceX IPO at $1.75 trillion would make it the most valuable company ever to debut on a U.S. exchange. 

CNBC reported that China's Alibaba (BABA) raised $22 billion in its 2014 IPO, the largest U.S. offering at the time. SpaceX is reportedly eyeing up to $75 billion, more than three times that figure.

The xAI Connection Tesla Investors Can't Ignore

On Tesla's Q4 earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja confirmed the company has invested in xAI, calling it "a furtherance of our Master Plan IV."

Tesla already uses Grok, xAI's AI model, inside its vehicles. And Musk made clear on the call that Grok will play a bigger role going forward, particularly in managing a large autonomous fleet. 

When SpaceX eventually goes public, Musk would become the first person to run two separate trillion-dollar publicly traded companies. 

The SpaceX-xAI merger, completed in February, created a combined entity Musk valued at $1.25 trillion at the time.

Tesla's Own Autonomy Story Is Still Unfolding

Back on the Tesla front, the Q4 earnings call left little doubt about where the company's focus is headed. 

• Musk confirmed Tesla has already begun running fully unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin.  
• The company expects to be operating in dozens of major U.S. cities by year-end, pending regulatory approval.
• Cybercab production is set to begin in April.
• Optimus 3 is expected to be unveiled in the coming months.
• And Tesla is planning to spend more than $20 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, funding six new factories, AI compute infrastructure, and expanded robotaxi fleet deployment.
• Automotive gross margins, excluding credits, improved from 15.4% to 17.9% in Q4.
• Full self-driving (FSD) paid subscribers hit nearly 1.1 million globally.

The SpaceX IPO process and the April 21 analyst day are separate from Tesla's core business, of course. But for investors tracking the full Musk ecosystem, the next few weeks are shaping up to be pivotal for reasons that go well beyond a single earnings report.

What Is the TSLA Stock Price Target?

After years of strong revenue growth, Tesla reported a decline in sales for the first time in 2025. Sluggish consumer demand, narrowing gross margins, and rising competition have also hampered the bottom line for the EV maker. 

Tesla reported a free cash flow of $6.22 billion in 2025, down from $7.6 billion in 2022. Given the company’s capital expenditures, analysts forecast Tesla’s free cash outflow to total $6 billion this year. However, it could end 2030 with a free cash flow of $27 billion. 

Out of the 43 analysts covering TSLA stock, 15 recommend “Strong Buy,” two recommend “Moderate Buy,” 16 recommend “Hold,” and 10 recommend “Strong Sell.” The average TSLA stock price target is $405.64, above the current price of about $366.