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10-Year T-Note Dec '18 (ZNZ18)

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10-Year T-Note Futures Market News and Commentary

10-Year T-Notes Fall Back as Stocks Rally on Trade Optimism

Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down -5.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield is up +2.2 bp to 2.012%. T-note prices fell back this morning as trade optimism boosted stocks and reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin told CNBC in an interview today that negotiators were "about 90% of the way" to a trade deal with China before talks broke down and that he was "hopeful" that a trade deal between the U.S. and China can be found. Also, a report said the U.S. is willing to suspend the next round of tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports while the U.S. and China prepare to resume trade negotiations. T-notes maintained their losses after today's data showed May core capital goods orders, a proxy for capital spending, rose +0.4%, stronger than expectations of +0.1%. Finally, supply pressures are weighing on T-note prices as the Treasury continues this week's $131 billion T-note package by selling $41 billion of 5-year T-notes and an $18 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes today. T-notes still have underlying support from simmering U.S./Iran tensions and last week's dovish turn by the Fed and market expectations for nearly three rate cuts in 2019. The market is discounting the odds at 100% for a 25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on July 30-31. Inflation expectations are higher today as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate is up +1.9 bp to 1.695%, moderately above last Monday's 2-3/4 year low of 1.612%.

Contract Specifications

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10-Year Treasury-Note
Contract Size
Tick Size
One half of 1/32 of a point ($15.625 per contract) rounded up to the nearest cent per contract; par is on the basis of 100 points
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Point Value
First Notice Date
Expiration Date
12/19/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

10-Year T-Note Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 18, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
2,572,128 (-12,334)
2,231,729 (-41,609)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
621,005 (-22,496)
1,023,989 (+14,500)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
237,756 (+9,010)
262,360 (-10,580)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
1,701,085 (+68,697)
725,970 (-82,275)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
324,621 (-70,906)
1,352,019 (+70,892)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
266,470 (-55,855)
252,168 (-19,370)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
119-005 +1.60%
on 11/21/18
121-060 -0.22%
on 12/19/18
+1-200 (+1.36%)
since 11/19/18
117-135 +2.98%
on 10/08/18
121-060 -0.22%
on 12/19/18
+2-115 (+1.99%)
since 09/19/18

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10-Year T-Notes Fall Back as Stocks Rally on Trade Optimism

Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down -5.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield is up +2.2 bp to 2.012%. T-note prices fell back this morning as trade optimism boosted stocks and reduced safe-haven...

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Sep 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed up +6 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield fell -2.4 bp to 1.990%. T-note prices moved higher Tuesday on weak U.S. economic data, increased safe-haven demand from Iran...

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10-Year T-Notes Move Higher on Continued Iran Safe-Haven and Strength in German Bunds

Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are up +3.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield is down by -2.4 bp at 1.995%. T-note prices are higher this morning on carry-over strength from a rally in German bunds...

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 80% Buy with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 121-095
1st Resistance Point 121-035
Last Price 120-295s
1st Support Level 120-260
2nd Support Level 120-225

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52-Week High 121-060
Last Price 120-295s
Fibonacci 61.8% 119-240
Fibonacci 50% 119-100
Fibonacci 38.2% 118-275
52-Week Low 117-135

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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