Stocks Settle Higher on Tech Earnings and Ceasefire Optimism

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Thursday closed up +0.26%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.24%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.49%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.23%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +0.35%.

Stock indexes recovered from early losses and rallied on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs.  The rebound in chipmakers on Thursday lifted the broader market after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the primary supplier of chips to Apple and Nvidia, raised its 2026 revenue forecast, reflecting strong AI demand.  Gains in stocks were limited after crude oil prices jumped by more than +3% on Bloomberg's report that some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe a US-Iran peace deal will take about 6 months, dashing hopes of a speedy conclusion to the Iran conflict. 

Hopes for peace in the Middle East are supporting stocks.  President Trump on Thursday said the prospects for a peace deal with Iran are "looking very good," as the two sides are in discussions to extend a ceasefire that expires next week. President Trump also announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, which eases tensions in the Middle East and may also help to end the US-Iran war. 

Thursday’s US economic news was mixed as weekly jobless claims fell more than expected and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly rose to a 15-month high.  However, US manufacturing production unexpectedly declined.

US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -11,000 to 207,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 213,000. 

The US Apr Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly rose +8.6 to a 15-month high of 26.7, stronger than expectations of a decline to 10.0.

US Mar manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.1% m/m increase.

New York Fed President John Williams signaled he favors steady Fed policy, saying the Fed remains well positioned to address the threat of a protracted supply shock from the war in the Middle East, which could raise inflation and dampen growth in the US.  He added that high uncertainty should prevent the Fed from providing strong guidance on the future path of interest rates.

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) rose more than +3% on Thursday as the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz entered its fourth day.  On Monday, the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the strait that call at Iranian ports or are headed there.  The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Iran has been able to export crude oil during the war, exporting about 1.7 million bpd in March.

Earnings season began this week, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets on Thursday settled mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.12%.  China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 4-week high and closed up +0.70%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a record high and closed up +2.38%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Thursday closed down -4.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.4 bp to 4.307%.  T-notes gave up an early advance on Thursday and moved lower after WTI crude oil prices jumped more than +3%, boosting inflation expectations.  Also, Thursday’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes.  In addition, hawkish comments from New York Fed President John Williams weighed on T-note prices when he signaled that he favors a steady Fed policy.  Thursday’s US economic news was mixed for T-note after US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected and the Apr Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly rose to a 15-month high, but Mar industrial production unexpectedly declined. 

European government bond yields were mixed on Thursday.  The 10-year German bund yield fell -1.1 bp to 3.032%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +3.3 bp to 4.847%.

Eurozone Mar CPI was revised upward by +0.1 to 2.6% y/y from the previously reported 2.5% y/y, the highest in 20 months.

UK Feb manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.3% m/m increase.

Swaps are discounting a 13% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers moved higher on Thursday after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the primary supplier of chips to Apple and Nvidia, raised its 2026 revenue forecast, a reflection of strong AI demand.  ON Semiconductor (ON) closed up more than +9%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed up more than +7% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Intel (INTC) closed up more than +5%, and Microchip Technology (MCHP) and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed up more than +2%.   In addition, NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Analog Devices (ADI), and Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up more than +1%. 

Software stocks rallied on Thursday for a second day.  Oracle (ORCL) closed up more than +5%, and Atlassian (TEAM) closed up more than +4%.  Also, ServiceNow (NOW) and Salesforce (CRM) closed up more than +2%, and Datadog (DDOG), Adobe Systems (ADBE), and Autodesk (ADSK) closed up more than +1%.

Cybersecurity stocks rose on Thursday.  Okta (OKTA) closed up more than +6% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $85.  Also,  Cloudflare (NET) and Fortinet (FTNT) closed up more than +3%, and Zscaler (ZS) closed up more than +2%.  In addition, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) closed up more than +1%.

Fertilizer stocks settled higher on Thursday on concerns that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will disrupt global supplies of fertilizer.  Mosaic (MOS) closed up more than +4%, and CF Industries (CF) closed up more than +3%.  Also, Dow (DOW) closed up more than +2%, and Nutrien Ltd (NTR) closed up more than +1%.

Airline stocks and cruise line operators retreated on Thursday as WTI crude oil rose more than +3%, which boosts fuel costs and weighs on company profits.  Carnival (CCL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) closed down more than -5%. Also,  

Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed down more than -3%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed down more than -2%.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) closed up more than +10%, adding to Wednesday’s 13% surge, after US Health Secretary Kennedy said the FDA is seeking to remove 12 peptides from Category 2 restrictions.   

Voyager Technologies (VOYG) closed up more than +8% after signing an order with NASA for the seventh private astronaut mission to the International Space Station.

JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) closed up more than +6% after reporting Q1 revenue of $3.06 billion, above the consensus of $2.96 billion. 

PPG Industries (PPG) closed up more than +3% after reporting Q1 preliminary adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $1.83, better than the consensus of $1.71. 

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) is up more than +2% after BTIG initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $300. 

QuidelOrtho Corp. (QDEL) closed down more than -27% after saying it expects negative free cash flow of $65 million to $70 million in Q1, as the Middle East conflict has delayed certain EMEA orders, negatively impacting quarterly revenue. 

Charles Schwab (SCHW) closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 net revenue of $6.48 billion, below the consensus of $6.51 billion.

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) closed down -6% after cutting its full-year profit forecast to $5.38 to $5.58 from a previous forecast of $5.55 to $5.80, below the consensus of $5.61. 

Fabrinet (FN) closed down more than -2% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight. 

Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) closed down more than -2% after being double-downgraded by Citigroup to sell from buy with a price target of $90.

Corning (GLW) closed down more than -1% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight. 

Earnings Reports(4/17/2026)

Ally Financial Inc (ALLY), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial Corp (RF), State Street Corp (STT), Truist Financial Corp (TFC).