Stock Index Futures Gain on Hopes for U.S.-Iran Deal, Netflix Sinks on Disappointing Guidance

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are up +0.23%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are up +0.20% this morning as investors take on more risk amid mounting speculation that a deal to end the war between the U.S. and Iran is drawing closer.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects a deal with Iran to be announced “fairly soon” and claimed that Tehran had agreed to terms it had long resisted, including abandoning ambitions for a nuclear weapon and turning over nuclear material. President Trump also said that negotiations with Iran could resume this weekend and that he was open to traveling to Islamabad to finalize the deal. Meanwhile, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect, increasing the prospect of a broader peace. The price of WTI crude dropped over -3% and Treasury yields fell across the curve on Friday, buoying stock index futures.

However, some negative corporate news is limiting gains in U.S. equity futures, with Netflix (NFLX) sinking over -9% in pre-market trading after the streaming giant provided below-consensus Q2 guidance and announced that chairman and co-founder Reed Hastings will step down from the board once his term ends in June. Also, Alcoa (AA) fell nearly -3% in pre-market trading after the aluminum producer reported weaker-than-expected Q1 results.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. Chip stocks climbed after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. delivered a profit beat and raised its full-year revenue growth guidance, with ON Semiconductor (ON) surging over +10%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumping more than +7% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, software stocks advanced, with Oracle (ORCL) rising over +5% and Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) gaining more than +4%. In addition, J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) rose more than +6% after the logistics company reported better-than-expected Q1 results. On the bearish side, Charles Schwab (SCHW) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the bank posted weaker-than-expected Q1 revenue.

Economic data released on Thursday were mixed. The number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -11K to 207K, compared with the 213K expected. Also, the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to a 15-month high of 26.7 in April, stronger than expectations of 10.3. At the same time, U.S. industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m in March, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m, and manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that monetary policy remains well-positioned in the near term to address the threat of a protracted supply shock stemming from the Middle East conflict that could lift inflation and slow growth in the U.S. Williams told reporters after his speech that heightened uncertainty should prevent officials from offering any strong guidance on the future trajectory of interest rates, though his outlook still envisions rate cuts over the longer term.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.5% probability of no rate change and a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

Today, market participants will hear perspectives from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.

On the earnings front, notable companies such as Truist Financial (TFC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), State Street (STT), Regions Financial (RF), and Ally Financial (ALLY) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +12% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.30%, down -0.46%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.56% this morning as investors digested a wave of headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict. A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect on Thursday, while U.S. President Trump signaled that Washington and Tehran were “very close” to reaching an agreement and could hold talks this weekend. Media and technology stocks led the gains on Friday. Luxury stocks also advanced. The benchmark index is on course to notch its fourth straight weekly gain. Data from Eurostat released on Friday showed that the European Union’s trade surplus in February retreated from the elevated levels seen in the same month of 2025, when companies had front-loaded exports ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcements. Separately, data showed that the Eurozone’s adjusted current account surplus shrank in February, weighed down by a deficit in income from abroad. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund’s European Department chief Alfred Kammer told Reuters on Friday that the European Central Bank should raise its key interest rate twice this year to counter an energy-driven inflation surge, before reversing those moves in 2027. “Under our reference scenario, we would expect the ECB to raise rates by about 50 basis points in 2026 in order to maintain a neutral monetary stance,” Kammer said. In corporate news, Alstom SA (ALO.P.DX) plummeted over -28% after the French train maker withdrew its full-year guidance.

Eurozone’s Current Account and Trade Balance data were released today.

Eurozone’s February Current Account stood at 24.9 billion euros, weaker than expectations of 29.8 billion euros.

Eurozone’s February Trade Balance came in at 11.5 billion euros, weaker than expectations of 11.7 billion euros.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.10%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.75%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today as investors took profits following a recent rally and awaited clarity on whether Iran and the U.S. will extend their truce. A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect on Thursday, and U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism about reaching a deal with Iran. Mr. Trump added that talks with Iran could be held this weekend. Liquor and consumer stocks were among the biggest losers on Friday. At the same time, 5G communications stocks outperformed. The benchmark index posted its second consecutive weekly gain. Meanwhile, Daiwa analyst Yue Tan said on Friday that China’s economic growth is expected to remain resilient in 2026 despite headwinds from elevated energy costs. The analyst forecasts China’s gross domestic product growth at 4.6% this year. Elsewhere, Wang Changlin, vice chair of China’s state economic planner, said on Friday that the country would keep diversifying its energy imports and increasing reserves to strengthen its ability to handle an “emergency situation.” In corporate news, shares of Manycore Tech and Gpixel Changchun Microelectronics jumped in their Hong Kong trading debuts, adding to a series of successful listings in the Asian financial hub this year. Investor attention now turns to the People’s Bank of China, which is set to announce the country’s benchmark lending rates on Monday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today, retreating from a record high as investors trimmed risk ahead of the weekend while awaiting progress on extending the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. In the latest developments, U.S. President Donald Trump voiced optimism that the war with Iran could end soon, claiming, without providing evidence, that Tehran had agreed to terms including abandoning its nuclear ambitions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Real estate, industrial, and chip stocks underperformed on Friday. Shuji Hosoi, a senior strategist at Daiwa Securities, said that investors grew cautious about the Nikkei’s sharp gains and sold chip-related stocks to lock in profits. Still, the benchmark index notched a strong weekly gain. Daniel Hurley at T. Rowe Price said that Japanese equities remain constructive as the country moves beyond its deflationary mindset, with inflation, wages, and corporate behavior evolving on a more sustainable footing. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said at a press conference after attending the International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington that any decision on how soon to raise interest rates must factor in the fact that the nation’s real interest rate is low. The remarks left traders uncertain about the timing of the next rate hike, with overnight swap indexes implying roughly a 76% probability of a move by June. In other news, a senior Japanese official told Reuters that the country’s financial regulator views private credit as a potential key pillar of its new strategy to meet growing corporate funding demand fueled by a surge in M&A activity, despite volatility in overseas private credit markets. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -0.63% to 28.40.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Netflix (NFLX) sank over -9% in pre-market trading after the streaming giant provided below-consensus Q2 guidance and announced that chairman and co-founder Reed Hastings will step down from the board once his term ends in June.

NiSource (NI) rose more than +2% in pre-market trading after the utility announced energy infrastructure agreements with units of Alphabet and Amazon.

Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS) climbed over +5% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and $40 price target.

Alcoa (AA) fell nearly -3% in pre-market trading after the aluminum producer reported weaker-than-expected Q1 results.

Albemarle (ALB) slid about -3% in pre-market trading after Baird downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform with an unchanged price target of $210.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - April 17th

Truist Financial (TFC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), State Street (STT), Regions Financial (RF), Ally Financial (ALLY), Autoliv (ALV), Badger Meter (BMI), BancFirst (BANF), Bank First (BFC), MetroCity Bankshares (MCBS), Blue Moon Metals (BMM), Community West Bancshares (CWBC), Chemung Financial (CHMG).