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T-Bond Sep '19 (ZBU19)

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T-Bond Futures Market News and Commentary

10-Year T-Notes Close Lower on Strength in U.S. Economic Data

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU19) on Tuesday closed down -8 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield rose +3.1 bp to 2.120%. T-note prices moved lower Tuesday with Sep T-notes at a 5-week low on strength in U.S. economic data. Tuesday's U.S. data showed that June retail sales rose +0.4% and +0.4% ex-autos, stronger than expectations of +0.2% and +0.1% ex-autos, which is hawkish for Fed policy. Also, Jun manufacturing production rose +0.4%, stronger than expectations of +0.3%, and the Jul NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose +1 to 65, stronger than expectations of unchanged at 64. T-notes recovered from their worst levels Tuesday on dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell who said the Fed is "carefully monitoring" downside risks to U.S. growth and "will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion." Also, slack price pressures are positive for T-note prices after Tuesday's U.S. June import price index ex-petroleum fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m. However, inflation expectations increased Tuesday as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate jumped to a 1-3/4 month high of 1.803% and finished the day up +1.6 bp at 1.796%. The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate is well above the 3-week low of 1.638% (July 3) and the mid-June 2-3/4 year low of 1.612%.

Contract Specifications

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U.S. Treasury Bond Futures
Contract Size
Tick Size
32nds of a point ($31.25 per contract) rounded up to the nearest cent per contract; par is on the basis of 100 points
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Point Value
First Notice Date
08/30/19 (45 days)
Expiration Date
09/19/19 (65 days)

Seasonal Chart

T-Bond Sep '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Sep Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jul 9, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
580,665 (+2,493)
611,104 (-5,769)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
150,909 (-13,139)
162,097 (-1,316)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
6,591 (+1,494)
103,272 (-1,917)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
440,446 (-2,176)
345,136 (+1,445)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
97,823 (-9,932)
155,015 (-3,503)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
40,078 (+2,578)
23,142 (-500)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
152-28 +0.74%
on 07/12/19
157-02 -1.95%
on 07/05/19
-0-20 (-0.40%)
since 06/17/19
145-17 +5.82%
on 04/23/19
157-02 -1.95%
on 07/05/19
+8-11 (+5.73%)
since 04/17/19

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Buy with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Soft. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 154-25
1st Resistance Point 154-06
Last Price 153-31
1st Support Level 153-03
2nd Support Level 152-19

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52-Week High 157-02
Last Price 153-31
Fibonacci 61.8% 151-25
Fibonacci 50% 150-05
Fibonacci 38.2% 148-17
52-Week Low 143-08

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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