Stocks Supported by a Rebound in Chipmakers and AI Stocks

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.42%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.37%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.03%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.40%.

Stock indexes are moving higher today, as chipmakers and other AI-related stocks climb to lift the broader market and recover some of Wednesday’s sharp losses.  However, software stocks are on the defensive today, led by an -11% slump in Oracle after it reported higher-than-expected capital expenses, driven by increased data spending.

Stocks are being undercut as crude oil prices erased early losses and whipsawed higher on concerns about the escalation of Middle East hostilities after President Trump said the US will be hitting Iran very hard tonight and will "at some point" take control of Kharg Island, Iran's key export hub, thus taking control of Iran's oil and gas markets.

Stocks are also pressured by today’s US economic reports, which showed that weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a 4-month high and that May producer prices were mixed. 

Late Wednesday, President Trump said the US will continue bombing Iran if it refuses to agree to an interim peace deal.  Mr. Trump ordered multiple strikes on Iranian targets on Wednesday, and Iran retaliated by firing on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.  The increase in tensions risks derailing peace talks between Iran and the US, thus keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, and further tightening global energy supplies.

US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly rose +4,000 to a 4-month high of 229,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of a decline to 220,000. 

US May PPI final demand rose +1.1% m/m and +6.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.7% m/m and +6.4% y/y, with the +6.5% y/y gain being the largest year-on-year increase in 3.5 years.  However, May PI ex food and energy rose +0.4% m/m and +4.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y.

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) are extremely volatile, whipsawing higher and lower several times today.  Crude prices today initially gave up an overnight advance of more than +2% and fell more than -1% as concerns over the escalation of the US-Iran conflict eased after the US ended strikes against Iran.  However, prices then rallied more than +1% again when President Trump said the US would keep attacking Iran and threatened to seize the Kharg Island oil terminal, Iran’s main crude exporting hub.

The markets are discounting a 3% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.89%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.16%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock Average recovered from a 2.5-week low and closed up +0.06%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +4 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -3.0 bp to 4.523%.  T-notes are moving higher today after US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a 4-month high and May producer prices ex-food and energy rose less than expected, dovish factors for Fed policy. 

Gains in T-notes are limited after crude oil prices whipsawed higher after President Trump said the US will keep on attacking Iran and threatened to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s main crude exporting hub.  Also, supply pressures are negative for T-notes, as the Treasury will auction $22 billion of 30-year T-bonds later today. 

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German Bund yield fell from a 2.5-week high of 3.091% and is down -4.1 bp to 3.035%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -2.6 bp to 4.905%.

The ECB, as expected, raised the deposit facility rate by +25 bp to 2.25% from 2.00% and said, "The outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth."

The ECB cut its 2026 Eurozone GDP estimate to +0.8% from a previous estimate of +0.9%, and raised its 2026 Eurozone inflation ex-food and energy forecast to +2.5% from a previous forecast of +2.3%.

Swaps are discounting a 64% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are moving higher today on signs that AI spending is continuing after Oracle reported quarterly capital expenditures that were higher than expected, driven by increased data center spending.  KLA Corp (KLAC) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Applied Materials (AMAT), Intel (INTC), Lam Research (LRCX), and Sandisk (SNDK) are up more than +6%.  Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +5%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML) is up more than +4%.  In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Analog Devices (ADI) are up more than +3%, and Microchip Technology (MCHP), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Micron Technology (MU), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +2%. 

Software stocks are under pressure today, limiting gains in the overall market, with Oracle (ORCL) down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting full-year capital spending of $70 billion, $20-25 billion higher than expected due to prepayment for some components.  Also, Adobe Systems (ADBE) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Salesforce (CRM) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.  In addition, ServiceNow (NOW), Atlassian Corp (TEAM), Autodesk (ADSK), Intuit (INTU), and Workday (WDAY) are down more than -3%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is down more than -2%.

Navan (NAVN) is up more than +12% after raising its full-year revenue forecast to $907 million-$913 million from a previous estimate of $866 million-$874 million, well above the consensus of $871.7 million. 

Voyager Technologies (VOYG) is up more than +11% after BTIG initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $55. 

Allegion Plc (ALLE) is up more than +1% after Longbow Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $165.

Eaton Corp Plc (ETN) is up more than +1% after agreeing to merge its mobility business with Dana Inc in a deal valuing the combined company at roughly $10 billion, including debt. 

PDD Holdings (PDD) is down more than -2% after China’s State Administration for Market Regulation summoned the country’s leading e-commerce companies over misleading promotions and false advertising. 

Earnings Reports(6/11/2026)

Adobe Inc (ADBE), Lennar Corp (LEN), RH (RH).