Stocks Pressured by Economic Fallout from Iran War

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed down -0.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.11%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.78%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) fell -0.43%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) fell -0.88%.

Stock indexes gave up an early advance on Monday and settled mixed, with the S&P 500 posting a 7.5-month low and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 7.75-month low.  Concerns that a protracted war in the Middle East will derail economic growth weighed on stocks on Monday, along with a sell-off in chip stocks.  Strength in software stocks kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average in positive territory. 

Stock indexes initially moved higher on Monday as a decline in bond yields sparked some short covering.  The 10-year T-note yield fell by -8 bp on Monday to 4.34%, amid fears that the war in the Middle East will lead to a fuel shortage that derails global economic growth, offsetting inflation fears and possibly keeping the Fed from raising interest rates.  T-note yields also moved lower on Monday after Fed Chair Powell said inflation expectations are well anchored and that the FOMC will meet its 2% inflation goal. He added, "It's too soon to know what the economic effects will be" from the Iran war.

The US Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing activity survey fell by -0.4 to -0.2, weaker than expectations of an increase to 2.0.

US and Israeli forces pressed ahead with attacks on Iran on Monday, while the UAE issued multiple alerts and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reported numerous strikes by Iranian drones and missiles as the war in Iran entered its fifth week.  The Washington Post on Monday said the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, as about 3,500 sailors and Marines have arrived in the Middle East.  President Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday that he wants to "take the oil in Iran" and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island, which would involve US ground troops and mark a major escalation of the conflict.

Crude oil prices (CLK26) rose more than +3% on Monday to a 3-week high.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.  Iran is also seeking to control ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, asking vessels to provide lists of crew and cargo, along with voyage details and bills of lading if they want to travel through the waterway.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

The International Energy Agency said last Monday that more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains once the war in Iran ends. 

The markets are discounting a 3% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Monday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.65%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.24%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-month low and closed down -2.79%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Monday closed up by +21 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -8.4 bp to 4.344%.  June T-notes rallied on Monday amid speculation that the ongoing war in the Middle East will lead to a fuel shortage that derails global economic growth, offsetting inflation fears and possibly keeping the Fed from raising interest rates.  Also, sliding inflation expectations are supportive of T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 3-week low of 2.295% on Monday.  T-notes added to their gains on Monday when Fed Chair Powell said inflation expectations are well anchored and the FOMC will reach its 2% inflation goals.

European government bond yields moved lower on Monday.  The 10-year German bund yield fell -5.9 bp to 3.035%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -4.0 bp to 4.935%.

The Eurozone Mar economic sentiment index fell -1.6 to a 6-month low of 96.6, weaker than expectations of 96.7.

German Mar CPI (EU harmonized) rose +1.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y, right on expectations, with the +2.8% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in two years.

Swaps are discounting a 52% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

The weakness in chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks weighed on the broader market.  Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -9% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Western Digital (WDC) closed down more than -8%.  Also, Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Sandisk (SNDK) closed down more than -7%, and Lam Research (LRCX) closed down more than -5%.  In addition, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), KLA Corp (KLAC), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Intel (INTC) closed down more than -4%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) closed down more than -3%.

Optical stocks retreated on Monday.  Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) closed down more than -13%, and Coherent (COHR) closed down more than -9%.  Also, Credo Technology Group Holdings Ltd (CRDO) closed down more than -7%, Lumentum Holdings (LITE) closed down more than -6%, and Corning (GLW) closed down more than -5%.  

Software stocks rebounded on Monday following last Friday’s plunge.  ServiceNow (NOW) closed up more than +5% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Salesforce (CRM) closed up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.   Also, Workday (WDAY) and Intuit (INTU) closed up more than +3%, and Atlassian (TEAM), Adobe (ADBE), and Autodesk (ADSK) closed up more than +2%. 

Cybersecurity stocks moved higher on Monday, recovering some of last Friday’s slide.  Palo Alto Networks (PANW) closed up more than +4%, and Okta (OKTA) and Zscaler (ZS) closed up more than +3%.  Also, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) closed up more than +2% and Fortinet (FTNT) closed up more than +1%. 

Aluminum stocks rallied on Monday following Iran’s attacks on Middle Eastern aluminum facilities.  Alcoa (AA) closed up more than +8%, and Century Aluminum (CENX) closed up more than +7%.

Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) closed down more than -32% after giving efficacy data from a late-stage trial of its experimental therapy for thyroid eye disease of 36%/45% placebo-adjusted proptosis response, well below expectations of 50%+.

Sysco (SYY) closed down more than -15% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after agreeing to buy Jetro Restaurant Depot LLC for $29.1 billion, including debt. 

Boston Scientific (BSX) closed down more than -9% after Raymond James downgraded the stock to outperform from strong buy.

United Therapeutics (UTHR) closed up more than +12% after announcing that its study of Tyvasco to treat idiopathic fibrosis met its primary endpoint, demonstrating superiority over placebo. 

Insmed Inc. (INSM) closed up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $212. 

TKO Group Holdings (TKO) closed up more than +3% after Citizens Financial Group initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of market outperform and a price target of $240.

Biogen (BIIB) closed up more than +2% after the FDA approved a high-dose version of its Spinraza drug for spinal muscular atrophy,

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