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10-Year T-Note Jun '19 (ZNM19)

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10-Year T-Note Futures Market News and Commentary

10-Year T-Notes Get Boost from Weak Economic Data and Fall in Inflation Expectations

Sep 10-year T-notes on Monday closed up +1 tick and the 10-year T-note yield rose +0.4 bp to 2.086%. T-note prices on Monday recovered from early losses and moved higher on weak U.S. economic data along with a new low in inflation expectations. T-notes moved higher Monday after the U.S. June Empire manufacturing index plunged by -25.4 points to a 2-1/2 year low of -8.6, weaker than expectations of -6.8 to 11.0. Also, the U.S. June NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -2 to 64, weaker than expectations of +1 to 67. T-notes also found support Monday on reduced inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate on Monday fell -2.7 bp to 1.613% and posted a new 2-3/4 year low of 1.612%. Comments from ECB Executive Board member Coeure also supported German bunds and T-note prices Monday when he said, "the constellation of prices in the bond market paints a picture of the global economy which is very bleak" and the ECB will act if needed to support the economy. The market is now discounting the odds of a -25 bp rate cut at 17% for the Tues/Wed FOMC meeting (June 18-19) and at 83% for the following FOMC meeting on July 30-31.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
10-Year Treasury-Note
Contract Size
$100,000
Tick Size
One half of 1/32 of a point ($15.625 per contract) rounded up to the nearest cent per contract; par is on the basis of 100 points
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,155/1,050
First Notice Date
05/31/19
Expiration Date
06/28/19 (10 days)

Seasonal Chart

10-Year T-Note Jun '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jun Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 11, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
2,584,462 (-3,382)
2,273,338 (+104,455)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
643,501 (+30,228)
1,009,489 (-71,486)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
228,746 (+19,466)
272,940 (+23,511)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
1,632,388 (-44,737)
808,245 (+29,450)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
395,527 (+37,435)
1,281,127 (-2,482)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
322,325 (+26,500)
271,538 (-5,692)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
124-010 +2.46%
on 05/21/19
127-090 -0.16%
on 06/14/19
+2-190 (+2.08%)
since 05/17/19
3-Month
122-200 +3.63%
on 03/19/19
127-090 -0.16%
on 06/14/19
+4-075 (+3.45%)
since 03/18/19

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 127-070
1st Resistance Point 127-030
Last Price 127-030
1st Support Level 126-255
2nd Support Level 126-200

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52-Week High 127-090
Last Price 127-030
Fibonacci 61.8% 123-160
Fibonacci 50% 122-110
Fibonacci 38.2% 121-055
52-Week Low 117-125

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InsideFutures Commentary

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