S&P Futures Dip With U.S. PCE Inflation and GDP Data in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending down -0.21% this morning as investors assess the potential impact of conflict in the Middle East and await a raft of U.S. economic data, with particular attention on the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge and the first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP.

The U.S. military is deploying a wide range of forces in the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and refueling tankers. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran had no more than 15 days to strike a deal over its nuclear program or “really bad things” would happen. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is considering an initial limited strike on military or government sites in Iran to pressure it into meeting his demands for a nuclear deal.

Market participants are also bracing for a potential Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s sweeping tariffs.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the red. EPAM Systems (EPAM) tumbled over -17% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the software design company issued soft FY26 revenue growth guidance. Also, chip stocks slid, with Microchip Technology (MCHP) and Texas Instruments (TXN) dropping more than -2%. In addition, Booking Holdings (BKNG) slumped more than -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the company posted weaker-than-expected Q4 EPS. On the bullish side, Omnicom Group (OMC) jumped over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the marketing conglomerate reported better-than-expected Q4 revenue.

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -23K to 206K, compared with the 223K expected. Also, the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to a 5-month high of 16.3 in February, stronger than expectations of 7.5. At the same time, the U.S. December trade deficit widened to -$70.3 billion, weaker than expectations of -$55.5 billion. In addition, U.S. pending home sales unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m in January, weaker than expectations of +1.4% m/m.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that interest rates are currently probably near “neutral”—the level where they neither restrain nor stimulate the economy. Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that monetary policy is “in a good place.”

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.0% probability of no rate change and a 6.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y in December, compared to +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y in November.

The U.S. Commerce Department’s advance estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product will also be closely monitored today. Economists forecast that U.S. economic growth slowed to a still-solid 2.8% annualized pace after expanding in the previous quarter at the fastest rate in two years.

U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will be released today. Economists expect December Personal Spending to rise +0.4% m/m and Personal Income to grow +0.3% m/m, compared to the November figures of +0.5% m/m and +0.3% m/m, respectively.

Preliminary U.S. purchasing managers’ surveys will come in today. Economists expect the February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to be 52.4 and the S&P Global Services PMI to be 53.0, compared to the previous values of 52.4 and 52.7, respectively.

U.S. New Home Sales data for December will be reported today. Notably, the release will also incorporate the November figures. Economists expect December’s new home sales to be 732K.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists anticipate that the final February figure will be revised lower to 56.9 from the preliminary reading of 57.3.

In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.070%, down -0.17%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.47% this morning as stronger-than-expected PMI data from the region boosted sentiment. Luxury stocks outperformed on Friday, led by a more than +12% jump in Moncler Spa (MONC.M.DX) after the Italian high-end fashion brand reported better-than-expected Q4 revenue. Consumer staples stocks also jumped after brokerage Deutsche Bank upgraded the sector to Neutral from Cautious. The benchmark index is on track to notch its largest weekly gain since early January, as investors take comfort in a broadly improving corporate earnings outlook. A survey released on Friday showed that Eurozone business activity grew at a faster pace than expected in February, driven by a sharp rebound in manufacturing, which returned to growth for the first time since October. The PMI data indicated that the bloc’s economy continues to show resilience in the face of persistent headwinds. Separately, data showed that U.K. monthly retail sales rose much more than expected in January, fueled by strong demand for artworks and antiques. In addition, data showed that wage growth in the Eurozone cooled last year despite an unemployment rate hovering near record lows, signaling that inflation is likely to remain around the European Central Bank’s target this year. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde told The Wall Street Journal she plans to complete her full term, dismissing earlier reports of a possible early departure. Investor focus now turns to a flurry of U.S. economic data. In other corporate news, Siegfried Holding Ag (SFZN.Z.EB) slumped over -8% after the life sciences company posted weaker-than-expected annual revenue.

U.K. Retail Sales, U.K. Core Retail Sales, Germany’s PPI, Eurozone’s Composite PMI (preliminary), Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Services PMI (preliminary) data were released today.

U.K. January Retail Sales rose +1.8% m/m and +4.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y.

U.K. January Core Retail Sales rose +2.0% m/m and +5.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +3.6% y/y.

The German January PPI fell -0.6% m/m and -3.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and -2.1% y/y.

Eurozone’s February Composite PMI has been reported at 51.9, stronger than expectations of 51.5.

Eurozone’s February Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, stronger than expectations of 49.9.

Eurozone’s February Services PMI arrived at 51.8, weaker than expectations of 51.9.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.12%, while mainland China’s financial markets were closed for a holiday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today, tracking overnight losses on Wall Street as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions weighed on sentiment. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran had no more than 15 days to strike a deal over its nuclear program or “really bad things” would happen. Financial stocks were among the biggest losers on Friday, mirroring a selloff in U.S. private‑equity shares after Blue Owl Capital restricted withdrawals from one of its funds. Automobile and technology stocks also slumped. The benchmark index posted a modest weekly decline, snapping a two-week winning streak. Data released on Friday showed that Japan’s annual core consumer inflation slowed to a two-year low in January, matching the Bank of Japan’s 2% target and giving the central bank more room to weigh its next move. Abhijit Surya, senior APAC economist at Capital Economics, said, “With price pressures showing signs of softening, the Bank of Japan won't be in a rush to resume its hiking cycle. However, we still believe conditions will be in place for the Bank to raise rates by the middle of the year.” Separately, a private-sector survey showed that Japan’s manufacturing activity expanded at its quickest pace in about four years in February, supported by robust domestic and overseas demand, signaling stronger corporate sentiment as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi prepares to advance her investment plans. The services sector also sustained its strong momentum, expanding at the fastest rate since May 2024. Takaichi on Friday vowed to move away from “excessive fiscal austerity” and boost long-term investment through a multi-year budget framework, underscoring her administration’s commitment to reinvigorating the economy. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -7.95% to 26.76.

The Japanese January National Core CPI rose +2.0% y/y, in line with expectations.

The Japanese February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) stood at 52.8, stronger than expectations of 51.3.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index was closed today for the Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland China’s financial markets will reopen on Tuesday, February 24th.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) jumped over +18% in pre-market trading after the online homebuying platform posted better-than-expected Q4 revenue and said it aims to achieve positive adjusted net income by the end of 2026.

AppLovin (APP) climbed more than +6% in pre-market trading after an executive said in a podcast interview that the company plans to build its own social-networking platform.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) plunged over -10% in pre-market trading after the cloud services company issued below-consensus Q1 and FY26 adjusted EPS guidance.

Copart (CPRT) slumped more than -7% in pre-market trading after the operator of online vehicle auctions reported weaker-than-expected FQ2 results.

Molina Healthcare (MOH) fell about -2% in pre-market trading after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $141.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - February 20th

Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP), PPL Corporation (PPL), Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR), Hudbay Minerals (HBM), ESAB Corporation (ESAB), Balchem (BCPC), Telephone and Data Systems (TDS), Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX), Array Digital Infrastructure (AD), DNOW Inc. (DNOW), The Western Union Company (WU), Weis Markets (WMK), Cogent Communications Holdings (CCOI), Dorchester Minerals (DMLP), Standard Motor Products (SMP), Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV), Oil States International (OIS), AdvanSix (ASIX), Costamare Bulkers Holdings (CMDB), Bicycle Therapeutics (BCYC), Vox Royalty (VOXR), Palladyne AI (PDYN), AIRO Group Holdings (AIRO), StealthGas (GASS), Gran Tierra Energy (GTE), BRC Group Holdings (RILY), Elme Communities (ELME), Escalade (ESCA), Greystone Housing Impact Investors LP (GHI), VisionWave Holdings (VWAV).