Stock Index Futures Climb as AI Jitters Ease, FOMC Minutes and U.S. Economic Data in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are up +0.54%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are up +0.63% this morning as concerns around AI appear to be easing, with investors snapping up tech stocks following the recent selloff.

Sentiment also improved after Iran and the U.S. both reported progress in nuclear talks. Iran said the two sides had reached an understanding on certain principles, while the U.S. said progress had been made.

Investors now await the release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes and a fresh batch of U.S. economic data.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the green. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) surged over +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist Elliott Investment Management had built a more than 10% stake in the company. Also, Southwest Airlines (LUV) climbed more than +6% after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $73. In addition, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) jumped over +25% after German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd agreed to acquire the company for $4.2 billion. On the bearish side, Genuine Parts (GPC) tumbled more than -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted downbeat Q4 results and announced plans to split its auto and industrial parts units into two separate public companies.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. February Empire State manufacturing index fell to 7.1, a smaller decline than expectations of 6.4.

Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that interest rates should remain unchanged until officials see clearer evidence that inflation is moving toward the central bank’s 2% target. “I would like to see evidence that goods price inflation is sustainably retreating before considering reducing the policy rate further, provided labor market conditions remain stable,” Barr said. Also, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said there is scope for additional interest rate cuts this year if inflation continues to move toward the target.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92.1% probability of no rate change and a 7.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.

Today, market watchers will pay close attention to the publication of the minutes from the Fed’s January 27-28 meeting. The minutes will be scrutinized to assess the debate between officials who support keeping rates steady and those who advocate for rate cuts. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged last month following three consecutive cuts at the end of 2025. “The January minutes will likely detail the arguments that support a wait-and-see approach versus those that could support rate cuts, consistent with the different viewpoints expressed by various FOMC policymakers since the meeting,” according to HSBC analysts.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect December Durable Goods Orders to drop -1.8% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders to rise +0.3% m/m, compared to the prior numbers of +5.3% m/m and +0.4% m/m, respectively.

U.S. Building Permits (preliminary) and Housing Starts data for December will also be released today. The figures were originally scheduled for release on January 21st, but were delayed due to the fallout from the longest-ever government shutdown. Notably, the release will also incorporate the November figures. Economists expect December Building Permits to be 1.400 million and Housing Starts to be 1.310 million.

U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be released today as well. Economists expect Industrial Production to rise +0.4% m/m and Manufacturing Production to rise +0.4% m/m in January, compared to the December figures of +0.4% m/m and +0.2% m/m, respectively.

In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.

On the earnings front, prominent companies such as Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Carvana (CVNA), DoorDash (DASH), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.073%, up +0.52%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.97% this morning, supported by strong gains in defense and bank stocks. Defense stocks outperformed on Wednesday, led by a more than +3% gain in BAE Systems (BA-.LN) after the company posted better-than-expected annual operating profit. Sentiment toward the sector was also bolstered by a report on Tuesday stating that Germany was preparing to acquire a minority stake in KNDS ahead of its planned listing this year. Bank stocks also climbed. At the same time, luxury stocks fell. Data from the Office for National Statistics released on Wednesday showed that the U.K. annual inflation rate eased in January, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England in March. Separately, final data confirmed that France’s annual inflation rate eased to 0.3% in January. Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is likely to step down before her eight-year term ends in October 2027. A departure before the April 2027 French presidential election would allow Emmanuel Macron to be among the EU leaders choosing her successor. “This raises the likelihood of getting a classical candidate and smoothens the process,” Danske Bank said. An ECB spokesperson said Lagarde has not yet made a decision regarding the end of her term. In other corporate news, Bayer AG (BAYN.D.DX) slumped over -8% after the pharmaceutical company said it had reached an agreement worth up to $7.25 billion to settle tens of thousands of lawsuits alleging that its Roundup weedkiller caused cancer.

U.K. CPI, U.K. Core CPI, and France’s CPI data were released today.

U.K. January CPI fell -0.5% m/m and rose +3.0% y/y, in line with expectations.

U.K. January Core CPI fell -0.6% m/m and rose +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.7% m/m and +3.0% y/y.

The French January CPI fell -0.3% m/m and rose +0.3% y/y, in line with expectations.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.02%, while China’s financial markets were closed for a holiday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, snapping a four-session losing streak. Financial, mining, and healthcare stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Also, shares of companies viewed as participating in the country’s pledge to invest $550 billion in U.S. projects rallied. The gains followed the Trump administration’s announcement on Tuesday of three Japan-financed projects worth $36 billion, including an oil export terminal in Texas, an industrial diamond plant in Georgia, and a natural gas power facility in Ohio. The projects mark the first investments under Japan’s U.S. investment pledge as part of a trade agreement. Government data released on Wednesday showed that Japan’s exports recorded the largest increase in over three years in January, supported by demand from neighboring Asian markets. However, exports to the U.S. declined 5.0% from a year earlier amid weakness in pharmaceuticals, metal-processing machinery, and autos. Separately, a Reuters poll showed that manufacturers’ confidence increased for the first time in three months in February, supported by stronger machinery orders and a softer yen. Meanwhile, Sanae Takaichi was reelected as Japan’s prime minister in a parliamentary vote on Wednesday after her Liberal Democratic Party secured a landslide victory in this month’s lower house election. In other news, the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday called on Japan to continue raising interest rates and refrain from further fiscal easing, warning that cutting the consumption tax would weaken its ability to respond to future economic shocks. In response, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated the government’s commitment to responsible spending. Investors are looking ahead to Japan’s January National Core CPI figures due on Friday, which are expected to ease while remaining close to the Bank of Japan’s target. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -6.47% to 27.89.

The Japanese January Trade Balance stood at -1,152.7 billion yen, stronger than expectations of -2,142.1 billion yen.

The Japanese January Exports rose +16.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +12.0% y/y.

The Japanese January Imports fell -2.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.0% y/y.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index was closed today for the Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland China’s financial markets will reopen on Tuesday, February 24th.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading, with Amazon.com (AMZN) rising over +1% and Tesla (TSLA) gaining about +0.7%.

Chip stocks advanced in pre-market trading. Micron Technology (MU), Arm Holdings (ARM), and ON Semiconductor (ON) are up about +1%.

Nvidia (NVDA) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after Meta Platforms said it would buy millions of the chipmaker’s Blackwell and Rubin graphics processing units.

Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) climbed more than +7% in pre-market trading after the chip design software company posted upbeat Q4 results and issued solid FY26 guidance.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) slumped more than -6% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity firm cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - February 18th

Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Moody’s (MCO), Carvana (CVNA), DoorDash (DASH), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Garmin (GRMN), Kinross Gold (KGC), eBay (EBAY), Nutrien (NTR), Texas Pacific Land (TPL), Edison International (EIX), American Water Works Company (AWK), Verisk Analytics (VRSK), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Royal Gold (RGLD), Omnicom Group (OMC), Global Payments (GPN), Alamos Gold (AGI), Western Midstream Partners (WES), Reliance (RS), Insulet (PODD), Invitation Homes (INVH), Nordson (NDSN), CF Industries Holdings (CF), Clean Harbors (CLH), Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST), Coeur Mining (CDE), Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), Equinox Gold (EQX), Figma (FIG), HF Sinclair (DINO), Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP.A), Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP), OGE Energy (OGE), New Gold (NGD), Jackson Financial (JXN), OR Royalties (OR), Charles River Laboratories International (CRL), Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM), B2Gold (BTG), Camtek (CAMT), Wingstop (WING), Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN), Bausch + Lomb (BLCO), Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (WH), Blue Owl Capital (OBDC), Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF), Enpro (NPO), ONE Gas (OGS), The Macerich Company (MAC), Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL), Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD), Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), Radian Group (RDN), Avis Budget Group (CAR), Corcept Therapeutics (CORT), Brookdale Senior Living (BKD), Kadant (KAI), Broadstone Net Lease (BNL), LCI Industries (LCII), Dana Incorporated (DAN), Fortuna Mining (FSM), The Vita Coco Company (COCO), Oceaneering International (OII), The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), OPENLANE (OPLN), Cinemark Holdings (CNK), American States Water Company (AWR), Remitly Global (RELY), Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP), Teekay Tankers (TNK), SiriusPoint (SPNT), OneSpaWorld Holdings (OSW), CVR Energy (CVI), Kaiser Aluminum (KALU), Bausch Health Companies (BHC), SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), Costamare (CMRE), Sonic Automotive (SAH), Mister Car Wash (MCW), Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP), Okeanis Eco Tankers (ECO), Herbalife (HLF), Borr Drilling (BORR), Liberty Latin America (LILA), Kennedy-Wilson Holdings (KW), Liberty Latin America (LILAK), ProPetro Holding (PUMP), PROG Holdings (PRG), Tronox Holdings (TROX), CVR Partners (UAN), MFA Financial (MFA).