Following the Fed's Rate Decision, the S&P 500 and Dow Fall to New Closing Lows for 2026

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) both fell to new 2026 closing lows today. The S&P 500 dropped 1.36% while the Dow tumbled 1.63% by the market close. The Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) was down -1.46%.

The Federal Reserve voted 11-1 on Wednesday to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. Despite higher-than-expected inflation and global uncertainty, the committee raised its 2026 growth projections and signaled that rate cuts are still likely. The latest "dot plot" suggests one reduction remains on the table for later this year, with another projected for 2027, though the exact timing depends on future economic data.

Stocks are under pressure today after US Feb producer prices rose more than expected, a sign of sticky price pressures.  Stocks added to their losses today after WTI crude oil prices (CLJ26) whipsawed higher by more than +2% after initially being down more than -2% on signs of escalation of the Iran war after Iran said it will target energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE in retaliation for US and Israeli airstrikes on its South Pars gas field and its Asaluyeh oil industry facilities. 

Stock index futures initially moved higher today after crude oil prices fell more than -2% when Iraq said it will resume crude exports through a pipeline that links Kurdistan to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.  Also, the US dropped 5,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Iranian missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz. 

The war against Iran entered its nineteenth day today with no signs of easing as Iran stepped up attacks on its Middle Eastern neighbors in retaliation for the killing of its security chief, Ali Larijani, in an Israeli strike.  Iran today launched fresh waves of missiles and drone attacks, targeting the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Israel.

Crude oil prices remain high despite attempts to boost global supplies. The IEA last Wednesday released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.  Iran has attacked about 20 vessels in the Persian Gulf and near Hormuz since the conflict began.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

US MBA mortgage applications fell -10.9% in the week ended March 13, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +0.9% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -18.5%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +11 bp to 6.30% from 6.19% the prior week.

US Feb PPI final demand rose +0,7% m/m and +3.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y.  Feb PPI ex-food and energy rose +0.5% m/m and +3.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y, with the +3.9% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in 13 months.

US Jan factory orders rose +0.1% m/m, right on expectations.

The 2-day FOMC meeting ends this afternoon, and market expectations are for the Fed to keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. With the Jan core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, at 3.1%, well above the Fed’s 2.0% target, the Fed is expected to signal an extended pause ahead. 

The markets are discounting a 0% chance for a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the Tue/Wed policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 1-week high and is down -0.76%.  China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 6-week low and closed up +0.32%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up sharply by +2.87%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -7 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.4 bp to 4.234%.  T-notes gave up early gains today and turned lower after US Feb producer prices rose more than expected, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.  Also, higher inflation expectations are weighing on T-notes as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 6.5-month high of 2.420% today. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +4.4 bp to 2.949%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +6.6 bp to 4.759%.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting this Thursday.

US Stock Movers

Mining stocks are falling today, with gold prices down more than -2%, copper down more than -3%, and silver down more than -4%.  Coeur Mining (CDE) are down more than -6%, and Anglogold Ashanti Ltd (AU) is down more than -5%.  Also, Barrick Mining (B), Southern Copper (SCCO), and Hecla Mining (HL) are down more than -4%, and Newmont Mining (NEM) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) are down more than -3%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are falling today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -4%.  Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Coinbase Global (COIN), Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are down more than -3%.  In addition, MARA Holdings (MARA) is down more than -1%. 

Building stocks and building supplies are moving lower today, with the 10-year Y-note yield up +3 bp to 4.23%, undercutting home-buying prospects.  Builders Firstsource (BLDR) is down more than -3%, and DR Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN), Pulte Group (PHM), KB Home (KBH), Toll Brothers (TOL), and Home Depot (HD) are down more than -1%.

Optical fiber companies are moving higher today after speaking of accelerating demand for their products at the Optical Fiber Communications Conference.  Lumentum (LITE) and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) are up more than +10%.  Also, Coherent (COHR) is up more than +6%, and Corning (GLW) is up more than +3%.

SailPoint (SAIL) is down more than -12% after forecasting 2027 revenue of $1.26 billion to $1.27 billion, below the consensus of $1.28 billion.

Rocket Lab (RKLB) is down more than -7% after filing to sell as much as $1 billion worth of shares of common stock.

Trade Desk (TTD) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500, adding to Wednesday’s -7% decline, after Adweek said Publicis was telling clients to avoid working with the company after it failed an audit conducted by a third-party consultant evaluating Trade Desk’s fees and spending. 

General Mills (GIS) is down more than -1% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of 64 cents, weaker than the consensus of 74 cents.

Swarmer (SWMR) is up more than +77% on speculation that a shift in US defense spending to more low-cost drones will boost demand for the company’s drone software. 

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.04, stronger than the consensus of $2.92. 

Grail Inc. (GRAL) is up more than +5% after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $65. 

Constellation Energy (CEG) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after BNP Paribas initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $407.

Macy’s (M) is up more than +4% after reporting Q4 net sales of $7.64 billion, above the consensus of $7.51 billion, and forecasting full-year net sales of $21.40 billion to $21.65 billion, better than the consensus of 21.11 billion. 

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is up more than +3% after reporting Q4 net revenue of $3.64 billion, above the consensus of $3.58 billion.

Constellation Brands (STZ) is up more than +1% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $175.

Earnings Reports(3/18/2026)

Five Below Inc (FIVE), General Mills Inc (GIS), Jabil Inc (JBL), Macy's Inc (M), Micron Technology Inc (MU), SailPoint Inc (SAIL), Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM).