Stocks Rally as Crude Oil and Bond Yields Fall

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +1.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.94%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.12%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +1.05%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +1.17%.

Stocks are moving sharply higher today, supported by lower crude oil prices and bond yields.  Crude prices are down more than -4% after several oil tankers managed to move through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, raising hopes that the waterway could soon reopen.  India is attempting to get six other vessels through the strait, while a number of other countries are trying back channels to Iran to ensure safe passage for their ships. The slump in crude prices has knocked the 10-year T-note yield down -4 bp today to 4.24%.

The war with Iran is in its seventeenth day with no end in sight. The US hit military sites over the weekend on Kharg Island, from which Iran exports almost all of its oil.  Meanwhile, Iran launched fresh attacks across the Persian Gulf, disrupting shipments at a key United Arab Emirates oil hub and halting flights at Dubai’s airport.

President Trump said the US is talking to Tehran but that he’s not sure if the Iranians are “ready.”  Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran hadn’t asked for talks or a ceasefire.  President Trump said that he is “demanding” that other countries contribute to the defense of the Strait of Hormuz and that NATO would face a “very bad” future if member states failed to help in Hormuz.  

Crude oil prices remain high despite attempts to boost global supplies. The IEA last Wednesday released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

Today’s US economic news was mixed for stocks.  On the positive side, Feb manufacturing production rose +0.2% m/m, slightly stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m, and Jan manufacturing production was revised upward to +0.8% m/m from the previously reported +0.6% m/m.  Also, the Mar NAHB housing market index rose +1 to 38.  stronger than expectations of 37.  Conversely, the Feb Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions fell -7.3 points to -0.2, weaker than expectations of 3.9.

Economic news from China was mixed for global growth prospects. On the positive side, China's Feb industrial production rose +6.3% year-to-date y/y, stronger than expectations of +5.3%.  Also, China's Feb retail sales rose +2.8% year-to-date y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.5%.  Conversely, the China Feb surveyed jobless rate rose +0.2 to 5.3%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 5.1%.  Also, China's Feb new home prices fell -0.28% m/m, marking the 33rd consecutive month home prices have declined.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the Tue/Wed policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.71%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 6-week low and closed down -0.26%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.13%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +14 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -4.1 bp to 4.236%.  T-note prices are garnering support from lower crude oil prices, which are down by more than -4% today, easing inflationary fears.  Today’s US economic news was mixed for T-note prices after the Feb Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index fell more than expected, but Feb manufacturing production and the Mar NAHB housing market index rose more than expected.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -5.1 bp to 2.932%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -7.5 bp to 4.748%.

Swaps are discounting a 4% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting this Thursday.

US Stock Movers

Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +2% to lead the Magnificent Seven technology stocks higher after Reuters reported that the company is planning layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company.  Also, Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +2%, and Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) are up more than +1%.  In addition, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up +0.58%, Amazon.com (AMZN) is up +0.56%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is up +0.28%. 

Chip stocks and AI-infrastructure companies are rallying today, a supportive factor for the broader market. Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Micro Technology (MU) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) and Intel (INTC) are up more than +4%, and Western Digital (WDC) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +3%.  In addition, Lam Research (LRCX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Microchip Technology (MCHP), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) are up more than +2%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +2% at a 6-week high.  Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +6%, and Strategy (MSTR), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Coinbase Global (COIN) are up more than +3%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is up +0.80%. 

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are moving higher today, as crude prices are down more than 4%, lowering fuel costs and boosting earnings prospects.  Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is up more than +5%, and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) is up more than +4%.  Also, Carnival (CCL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are up more than +3%.  In addition, American Airlines Group (AAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are up more than +2%. 

Fertilizer stocks are under pressure today, giving back some of last week’s sharp gains.  Intrepid Potash (IPI) is down more than -7%, and CF Industries Holdings (CF) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500.  Also, Mosaic (MOS) is down more than -4%. 

National Storage Affiliates (NSA) is up more than +30% after Public Storage acquired the company for about $10.5 billion, or $41.68 per share.  Public Storage (PSA) is down more than -2% after news of the acquisition. 

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is up more than +6% after Clear Street LLC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $136.

Upstart Holdings (UPST) is up more than +5% after BTIG LLC upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $43. 

CoreWeave (CRWV) is up more than +1% after announcing a collaboration with Cerebras Systems and BCE Inc. on a 300-megawatt data center in Saskatchewan. 

Earnings Reports(3/16/2026)

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) and Science Applications International (SAIC).