Strength in Chipmakers Boosts Stocks

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.64%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.47%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.58%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.62%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +1.58%. 

Stock indexes are climbing today as Monday’s rebound in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks gathers pace.  The recent selloff in chipmakers has cheapened valuations and has enticed dip buyers ahead of earnings results of megacap technology stocks this week, beginning with Alphabet and Tesla on Wednesday.  On the downside, software stocks are weak after Morgan Stanley downgraded several in the sector.  Also, rising crude oil prices are pushing bond yields higher as the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 2-month high of 4.64% today.

WTI crude oil (CLQ26) is up more than +2% today at a 5-week high as the US and Iran exchanged strikes for a 10th consecutive day even as mediators sought to revive a truce.  The US targeted military command centers, launch sites, and air defenses in Iran today.  Meanwhile, Iran attacked US military sites in Kuwait and Jordan.  The UK navy also reported Iran struck two vessels around the Strait of Hormuz.  Also, Houthi rebels on Monday said they will impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they say is the kingdom's siege on the Yemeni capital, a potential threat to Saudi Arabian crude exports through the Red Sea.

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which begin in earnest this week, is a bullish factor for stocks.  Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1’s blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected.  AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.   

The markets are discounting a 22% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.55%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.79%.  Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up sharply by +3.26%. 

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -6 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +3.0 bp at 4.622%.  The 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 2-month high of 4.638% today as the +2% jump in WTI crude oil to a 5-week high is boosting inflation expectations, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.  Also, today's strength in stocks has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes.  Heightened Middle East tensions are supporting safe-haven demand for T-notes after President Trump threatened a disproportionate response for any Americans killed by Iran. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 2-month high of 3.185% and is up +1.9 bp to 3.169%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +0.3 bp to 5.035%.

The German Jul ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +15.8 to a 5-month high of 26.3, stronger than expectations of 15.3.

Swaps are discounting a 4% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on Thursday.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing today, supporting gains in the overall market.  The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +4%.  Teradyne (TER) and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +11%, and Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +10%.  Also, Micron Technology (MU) and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) are up more than +9%, and Applied Materials (AMAT) is up more than +7%.  In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Intel (INTC) are up more than +6%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) are up more than +5%.  Finally, Lam Research (LRCX) is up more than +4%,  and KLA Corp (KLAC) and ASML Holding NV (ASML) are up more than +3%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rising to a 5-week high.  Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +8%.  Also, Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is up more than +6%, and Strategy (MSTR) and MARA Holdings (MARA) are up more than +5%.  In addition, Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +4%.

Software stocks are under pressure today after Morgan Stanley downgraded Adobe, Intuit, and Workday.  Atlassian Corp (TEAM) is down more than -4%, and Thomson Reuters (TRI) and Workday (WDAY) are down more than -2%. Also, Adobe Systems (ADBE), Salesforce (CRM), Autodesk (ADSK), Datadog (DDOG), and ServiceNow (NOW) are down more than -1%. 

Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is up more than +13% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100after Nvidia reported a 9.3% stake in the company in a 13G filing. 

3M Co (MMM) is up more than +9% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.40, stronger than the consensus of $2.25, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.80 to $8.95 from a previous forecast of $8.50 to $8.70. 

Hasbro (HAS) is up more than +9% after reporting Q2 net revenue of $1.14 billion, better than the consensus of $1.07 billion, and boosting its full-year adjusted Ebitda forecast to $1.45 billion to $1.50 billion from a previous forecast of $1.40 billion to $1.45 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.45 billion.

General Motors (GM) is up more than +3% after reporting Q2 net sales of $48.03 billion, stronger than the consensus of $46.61 billion, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $12 to $14 from a previous estimate of $11.50 to $13.50, the midpoint above the consensus of $12.81. 

Ralph Lauren (RL) is up more than +2% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $410.

Danaher (DHR) is down more than -13% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting Q3 non-GAAP core revenue growth of 2.0% to 3.0%, weaker than the consensus of 3.61%. 

MSCI Inc (MSCI) is down more than -10% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.94, below the consensus of $4.99, and boosting its full-year operating expenses estimate to $1.54 billion to $1.58 billion from a previous estimate of $1.49 billion to $1.53 billion.

Equifax (EFX) is down more than -5% after lowering the top end of its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.39 to $8.69 from $8.34 to $8.74. 

Halliburton (HAL) is down more than -5% after reporting Q2 adjusted operating income of $683 million, weaker than the consensus of $688.7 million. 

Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) is down more than -4% after announcing it will not advance the development of tebapivat for sickle cell disease following Phase 2 trial results that failed to establish a differentiated profile versus placebo. 

Earnings Reports(7/21/2026)

3M Co (MMM), Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK), Ally Financial Inc (ALLY), Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY), Bank OZK (OZK), Capital One Financial Corp (COF), Charles Schwab Corp/The (SCHW), Chubb Ltd (CB), Danaher Corp (DHR), DR Horton Inc (DHI), East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC), EQT Corp (EQT), Equifax Inc (EFX), General Motors Co (GM), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Halliburton Co (HAL), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR), KeyCorp (KEY), Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MRSH), MSCI Inc (MSCI), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC), Pegasystems Inc (PEGA), Range Resources Corp (RRC), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Valmont Industries Inc (VMI), Vicor Corp (VICR), Weatherford International PLC (WFRD), Webster Financial Corp (WBS), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL).