Stocks Recover on Strength in Apple and Airline Stocks

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed up +0.10%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.13%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) rose +0.12%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) fell -0.11%.

Stock indexes recovered from early losses on Tuesday and settled mixed, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 2.75-month low.  The S&P 500 recovered from a 1.5-week low and moved higher after Apple jumped more than +3% when it said it will hold a product launch on March 4 and will announce several new devices in the coming weeks.  Also, airline stocks rallied on Tuesday, lifting the broader market. 

AI fears weighed on stocks on Tuesday amid concerns that the payout from elevated capital spending by tech companies on artificial intelligence will come anytime soon.  Also, fears that the latest tools released by Google, Anthropic, and other AI startups are already good enough to disrupt many sectors of the economy, including finance, logistics, software, and trucking.  In addition, Tuesday’s selloff in gold and silver weighed on mining stocks.

Tuesday’s US economic news was mixed for stocks.  The US Feb NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell by -1 to a 5-month low of 36, weaker than expectations of an increase to 38. Conversely, the US Feb Empire manufacturing general business conditions survey fell -0.6 to 7.1, a smaller decline than expectations of 6.2.

Fed comments on Tuesday were mainly hawkish.  Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that services inflation remains elevated, but there is potential for more interest rate cuts this year if inflation continues to return to the Fed's 2% target.  Also, Fed Governor Michael Barr said, "Based on current conditions and data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold interest rates steady for some time as we assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."

The market’s focus this week will be on corporate earnings results and economic news.  On Wednesday, Dec capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts (a proxy for capital spending) are expected to increase by +0.4% m/m.  Also, Dec housing starts and building permits will be released. In addition, Jan manufacturing production is expected to climb by +0.4% m/m.  Finally, the minutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting will be released.  On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to decline by -2,000 to 225,000.  Also, the Feb Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to fall by -5.3 to 7.3.  In addition, the Dec trade deficit is expected to widen to -$86.0 billion. Finally, Jan pending home sales are expected to increase by +2.0% m/m.  On Friday, Q4 GDP is expected to expand by +3.0% (q/q annualized), and the Q4 core price index is expected to be up by +2.6%.  Also, Dec personal spending is expected to rise by +0.4% m/m and Dec personal income is expected to be up +0.3% m/m.  In addition, the Dec core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) is expected to be up +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y.  The Feb S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 52.4, and Dec new home sales will be released.  Finally, the University of Michigan Feb consumer sentiment index is expected to remain unrevised at 57.3.

Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more thany three-quarters of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 75% of the 379 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 7% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Tuesday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.72%.  China’s Shanghai Composite is closed for the week-long Lunar New Year holidays.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.42%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) on Tuesday closed down by -1.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +0.4 bp to 4.052%.  Mar T-notes fell from a 2.5-month high on Tuesday, and the 10-year T-note yield rose from a 2.5-month low of 4.016%.  T-notes gave up an early advance and turned lower on Tuesday after the S&P 500 recovered from early losses and moved higher, reducing safe-haven demand for T-notes. Also, hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Michael Barr weighed on T-notes. 

T-notes initially moved higher on Tuesday as a slump in stocks boosted safe-haven demand for T-notes.  Also, a decline in inflation expectations was supportive of T-notes as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 5-week low of 2.270% on Tuesday.   

European government bond yields moved lower on Tuesday.  The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 2.5-month low of 2.724% and finished down by -1.6 bp to 2.738%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield slid to a 1-month low of 4.356% and finished down by -2.3 bp to 4.376%.

The German Feb ZEW expectations of economic growth survey unexpectedly fell -1.3 to 58.3, weaker than expectations of an increase to 65.2.

The UK Dec ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to a nearly 5-year high of 5.2%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 5.1%.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks are falling today amid speculation that AI disruption will displace the companies.  Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) closed down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Intuit (INTU) closed down more than -5%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) and Oracle (ORCL) closed down more than -3%.  In addition, Atlassian Corp Plc (TEAM), Salesforce (CRM), Adobe Systems (ADBE), and Datadog (DDOG) closed down more than -2%, and Microsoft (MSFT) and ServiceNow (NOW) closed down more than -1%.

Silver and gold mining stocks fell on Tuesday as gold prices sank by more than 2% and silver prices plunged by more than 6%.  Hecla Mining (HL) closed down more than -5%, and Anglogold Ashanti (AU) closed down more than -3%.  Also, Coeur Mining (CDE), Barrick Mining (B), Newmont Corp (NEM), and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed down more than -2%. 

Airline stocks rallied on Tuesday, led by a +6% jump in Southwest Airlines (LUV) after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $73.  Also, United Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed up more than +4%, and American Airlines Group (AAL) and Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed up more than +3%.  In addition, Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up more than +2%.  

Masimo (MASI) closed up more than +34% after the Financial Times reported that Danaher is closing in on a nearly $10 billion deal to acquire the company. 

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd (ZIM) closed up more than +25% after Hapag-Lloyd AG said it is buying the company in a cash deal of $35 a share, valued at about $4.2 billion. 

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) closed up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after the Wall Street Journal reported that Elliot Investment Management has built a more than 10% stake in the company. 

AeroVironment (AVAV) closed up more than +8% after JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of overweight and a price target of $320.

Fiserv (FISV) closed up more than +6% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Jana Partners has built a stake in the company and is pushing for changes to improve its stock performance. 

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) closed up more than +4% after it reopened negotiations and raised its bid to acquire Warner Bros Discovery. 

Moderna (MRNA) closed up more than +4% after receiving approval from the EU to market its Covid-19 vaccine Mnexspike.

Apple (AAPL) closed up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after saying it will hold a product launch on March 4 and will announce several new devices in the coming weeks. 

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is up more than +3% after Bloomberg News reported that the company is considering reopening sale talks with Paramount Skydance.

Genuine Parts Co (GPC) closed down more than -14% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 net sales of $6.01 billion, weaker than the consensus of $6.06 billion. 

Allegion Plc (ALLE) closed down more than -9% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.94, weaker than the consensus of $2.00, and forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $8.70 to $9.90, the midpoint below the consensus of $8.86.

General Mills (GIS) closed down more than -7% after lowering guidance on its full-year organic net sales forecast to down -1.5% to -2.0% from a previous forecast of -1% to up +1%, weaker than the consensus of -0.44%. 

Vulcan Materials (VMC) closed down more than -7% after forecasting full-year adjusted Ebitda of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, below the consensus of $2.65 billion. 

Danaher (DHR) closed down more than -2% after the Financial Times reported the company is closing in on a nearly $10 billion deal to acquire Masimo. 

Medtronic Plc (MDT) closed down more than -2% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $5.62 to $5.66, the midpoint below the consensus of $5.65. 

Earnings Reports(2/18/2026)

American Water Works Co Inc (AWK), Analog Devices Inc (ADI), Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG), Carvana Co (CVNA), CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF), Charles River Laboratories Int (CRL), Constellation Energy Corp (CEG), CRH PLC (CRH), DoorDash Inc (DASH), eBay Inc (EBAY), Edison International (EIX), Garmin Ltd (GRMN), Global Payments Inc (GPN), Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST), Insulet Corp (PODD), Invitation Homes Inc (INVH), Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP), Moody's Corp (MCO), Nordson Corp (NDSN), Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY), Omnicom Group Inc (OMC), Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL), Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK).