Stocks Recover as Oracle Leads Software Companies Higher

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.09%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.39%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.16%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.12%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.20%.

Stock indexes erased early losses today, and trading was mixed after Oracle jumped more than +8% to lead a rally in software stocks.  Stocks were initially under pressure today after crude oil prices jumped following President Trump's order to block the Strait of Hormuz, following the deadlocked peace talks over the weekend between the US and Iran.  President Trump said the US will begin a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz today and threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance.  Iran said it would target all ports in and close to the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened.

Today’s US economic news was bearish for stocks after Mar existing home sales fell -3.6% m/m to a 9-month low of 3.98 million, weaker than expectations of 4.05 million.

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) remain volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses amid news headlines about Iran.  The price of crude is up more than +5% today as the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that call at Iranian ports or were headed there.  The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Iran has been able to export crude during the war, as it exported about 1.7 million bpd in March.

Earnings season begins this week as money center banks report, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around 3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down by -0.52%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.06%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.74%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -2 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.4 bp to 4.321%.  T-notes are slightly lower today on inflation concerns.  WTI crude oil prices are up by more than +4%, boosting inflation expectations, as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 3-week high of 2.403% today.  T-notes recovered from their worst level after US Mar existing home sales fell more than expected to a 9-month low, a dovish factor for Fed policy. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +2.4 bp to 3.082%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +2.5 bp to 4.861%.

Swaps are discounting a 40% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are falling as today’s +7% jump in crude oil prices threatens to raise fuel costs and undercut corporate profits.  Carnival (CCL) is down more than 03%.  Also, United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are down more than -2%.  In addition, American Airlines Group (AAL) and Alaska Air Group (ALK) are down more than -1%. 

Software stocks are moving higher today, recovering some of last week’s slump, led by an +8% jump in Oracle (ORCL) to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after it said its new utilities industry suite offerings help utilities cut costs with AI. Also, ServiceNow (NOW) and Workday (WDAY) are up more than +5%, and Atlassian (TEAM) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) are up more than +4%. In addition, Salesforce (CRM) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.  Finally,  Intuit (INTU), Datadog (DDOG), and Adobe (ADBE) closed down by more than -2%.

Revolution Medicines (RVMD) is up more than +35% after its treatment for an aggressive form of pancreatic cancer boosted patients’ survival in a late-stage trial.

Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) is up more than +14% after saying a mid-late stage trial of its experimental combination therapy for a type of eye cancer had met its main goal. 

Leggett & Platt (LEG) is up more than +13% after Somnigroup agreed to buy the company for about $2.5 billion.

Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +6% after Nasdaq announced the stock will replace Atlassian in the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index, before the market opens on Monday, April 20.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up more than +4% after President Trump said the company has “proven to have great war-fighting capabilities and equipment.” 

ON Semiconductor Corp (ON) is up more than +2% after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $85.

Conagra Brands (CAG) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after it said it is replacing CEO Sean Connolly with John Brase at the end of next month.

Fastenal (FAST) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q1 operating income of $447.6 million, below the consensus of $449.3 million. 

Goldman Sachs (GS) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q1 FICC sales and trading revenue of $4.01 billion, weaker than the consensus of $4.87 billion. 

Best Buy (BBY) is down more than -3% after Goldman Sachs double-downgraded the stock to sell from buy with a price target of $59. 

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is down more than -2% after Raymond James downgraded the stock to outperform from strong buy. 

Earnings Reports(4/13/2026)

Atlantic International Corp (ATLN), Fastenal Co (FAST), FB Financial Corp (FBK), Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The (GS), Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN), NextNRG Inc (NXXT).