Stocks Finish Mostly Higher Despite a Plunge in Intel

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed up +0.03%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.58%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.34%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) rose +0.02%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) rose +0.29%.

The broader market recovered from early losses on Friday and turned higher after the Magnificent Seven technology stocks rallied.  Stocks initially moved lower on Friday after Intel plunged more than -17% following a lackluster forecast from CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who warned the company was struggling with manufacturing problems.

Stocks also found support on Friday after the University of Michigan US Jan consumer sentiment index was revised upward to a 5-month high.  In addition, bond yields turned lower, supporting stocks, as inflation expectations eased after the University of Michigan's US Jan inflation expectations were revised lower.

The US Jan S&P manufacturing PMI rose +0.1 to 51.9, slightly weaker than expectations of 52.0.

The University of Michigan US Jan consumer sentiment index was revised upward by +2.4 to a 5-month high of 56.4, stronger than expectations of no change at 54.0.

The University of Michigan US Jan 1-year inflation expectations were revised lower to a 1-year low of 4.0% from the previously reported 4.2%. Also, the Jan 5-10 year inflation expectations were revised lower to 3.3% from the previously reported 3.4%.

Gold, silver, and platinum prices rose to fresh record highs on Friday, boosting mining stocks, as a weaker dollar, geopolitical risks, and renewed threats to the Fed’s independence have increased demand for precious metals as a store of value. 

WTI crude oil jumped more than +2% on Friday to a 1-week high to lift energy producers after President Trump revived threats to use military force against Iran’s senior leadership for its violent crackdown on protests.  Crude prices also rose after the Financial Times reported that the US is threatening to curb the supply of dollars for Iraqi oil sales as it pressures Iraq's leading politicians to form a government that excludes Iran-backed militia groups.

On Wednesday, President Trump said he would refrain from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations that oppose his effort to acquire Greenland.  NATO Secretary General Rutte said a breakthrough over Greenland was secured without discussing the territory’s sovereignty with President Trump, instead focusing on the broader issue of security in the Arctic region. 

Q4 earnings season begins in earnest this week and, so far, has been a positive factor for stocks, with 81% of the 40 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The Supreme Court on Tuesday did not issue a ruling on challenges to President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.  The court did not say when it will issue its next opinions, meaning it will likely be at least another month before ruling on the tariffs, as the court begins a four-week recess. 

The markets are discounting the odds to 3% for a -25 bp rate cut at the FOMC’s next meeting on January 27-28.

Overseas stock markets settled higher on Friday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by +0.09%.  China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1-week high and closed up by +0.33%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up by +0.29%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) on Friday closed up by +2.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell by -1.2 bp to 4.233%.  T-notes recovered from early losses on Friday and turned higher as inflation expectations eased after the University of Michigan’s US Jan inflation expectations were revised lower.  T-notes initially moved lower on Friday after WTI crude prices jumped more than +2% to a 1-week high, a negative factor for inflation expectations.

T-notes are also under pressure after President Trump last Friday expressed reluctance to name Keven Hassett as the next Fed Chair and said he would prefer to keep him as National Economic Council director.  The markets saw Hassett as the most dovish candidate and the top contender for the Fed Chair nomination, so nominating someone like Kevin Warsh, a known hawk and the second-most-likely Fed Chair candidate, would be bearish for T-note prices.

European government bond yields moved higher on Friday.  The 10-year German bund yield jumped to a 3-week high of 2.908% and finished up +1.9 bp to 2.906%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 2.5-week high of 4.517% and finished up +3.8 bp to 4.512%.

The Eurozone Jan S&P manufacturing PMI rose +0.6 to 49.4, stronger than expectations of 49.2.

The UK Jan S&P manufacturing PMI rose +1.0 to 51.6, stronger than expectations of no change at 50.6 and the fastest pace of expansion in 17 months.

UK Dec retail sales ex-autos rose +0.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of no change.

Swaps are discounting a 0% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.

US Stock Movers

The strength of the Magnificent Seven technology stocks on Friday was a supportive factor for the broader market.  Microsoft (MSFT) closed up more than +3%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) closed up more than +2%.  Also, Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta Platforms (META) closed up more than +1%.  However, Alphabet (GOOGL) closed down -0.79%, Apple (AAPL) closed down -0.15%, and Tesla (TSLA) closed down -0.07%. 

Mining stocks rallied on Friday after the price of gold, silver, and platinum rose to new record highs.  Barrick Mining (B) closed up more than +3%.  Also, Newmont Mining (NEM) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) closed up more than +2%.  In addition, Hecla Mining (HL) and Coeur Mining (CDE) closed up more than +1%.

Packaging stocks rose on Friday after Bloomberg’s Green Markets Box Report said Packaging Corp of America plans to raise prices by $70 a ton, effective March 1.  As a result, Smurfit WestRock Plc (SW) closed up more than +4%, Packaging Corp of America (PKG) closed up more than +3%, and International Paper (IP) closed up more than +2%.

Intel (INTC) closed down more than -17% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 and lead chip stocks and AI-infrastructure companies lower after CEO Lip-Bu Tan gave a lackluster forecast and warned that the company was struggling with manufacturing problems.  Also, Sandisk (SNDK) closed down more than -6%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed down more than -3%.  In addition, Western Digital (WDC) and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed down more than -2%, and Analog Devices (ADI), Broadcom (AVGO), Lam Research (LRCX), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed down more than -1%.

Syringe makers retreated on Friday after analysts touted the launch of Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy medication.  As a result, Stevanato Group (STVN) closed down more than -10%, West Pharmaceuticals (WST) closed down more than -4%, and Becton Dickson (BDX) closed down more than -2% 

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding (BAH) closed up more than +6% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.77, well above the consensus of $1.27, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $5.95-$6.15 from a previous estimate of $5.45-$5.65.  stronger than the consensus of $5.61. 

Fortinet (FTNT) closed up more than +5% after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $100. 

CSX Corp (CSX) closed up more than +2% after saying it expects 2026 operating margin expansion of 200 to 300 basis points from adjusted fiscal 2025 performance. 

Netflix (NFLX) closed up more than +2% after co-chief executive Peters told the Financial Times that his company is on track to win the backing of Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders for its offer for Warner Bros. film and television studios.

Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) closed down more than -7% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.86, weaker than the consensus of $4.15.

Safehold Inc (SAFE) closed down more than -5% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $14.

Entegris Inc (ENTG) closed down more than -3% after Seaport Global Securities downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW) closed down more than -1% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to hold from buy. 

Earnings Reports(1/26/2026)

AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Crane Co (CR), Graco Inc (GGG), Nucor Corp (NUE), Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD), W R Berkley Corp (WRB), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL).