Stocks Pressured as Peace Talks with Iran Remain in Limbo

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.07%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.36%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.03%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.08%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.04%.

Stock indexes are trading lower as peace talks with Iran remain in limbo. The US and Iran are locked in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides blocking the waterway to gain leverage during an extended ceasefire.  The US said it was waiting for a response from Iran before peace talks could restart, and Iran said it will not resume negotiations while a US naval blockade on its ports is in place.  Higher crude oil prices are raising inflation expectations and pushing bond yields higher, with the 10-year T-note yield climbing to a 1.5-week high of 4.34%. 

Weakness in software stocks is also pressuring the broader market today, with ServiceNow down more than -15% after reporting disappointing earnings results and saying some sales deals have been delayed by the war in the Middle East.  Also, IBM is down more than -7% after reporting Q1 results that featured an underwhelming read for its software business.

On the positive side of stocks, United Rentals, Texas Instruments, and Comcast are up more than +6% after reporting better-than-expected Q1 revenue.  Also, Keurig Dr. Pepper is up more than +6% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q1 net sales.

Today’s US economic news was mixed for stocks.  Weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +6,000 to 214,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 210,000. Also, the Mar Chicago Fed national activity index fell -0.23 to a 4-month low of -0.20, weaker than expectations of -0.13.  Conversely, the Apr S&P manufacturing PMI rose +1.7 to 54.0, stronger than expectations of 52.5 and the strongest level in nearly 4 years.

WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) are up nearly +1% today as the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed, threatening to deepen the global energy crisis.  The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.

Earnings season continues this week.  So far, 79% of the 101 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates.  Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are lower today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2-week low and is down -0.33%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 1.25-month high and closed down -0.32%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell from a record high and closed down -0.75%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down -1 tick.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.2 bp to 4.305%.  Jun T-notes fell to a 1.5-week low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1.5-week high of 4.337%.  An increase in inflation expectations is weighing on T-notes as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-month high today of 2.409%.  T-notes recovered most of their losses after weekly US jobless claims rose more than expected, a dovish factor for Fed policy. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.4 bp to 3.012%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 3.5-week high of 4.973% and is up by +2.5 bp to 4.934%.

The Eurozone Apr S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.6 to 52.2, stronger than expectations of a decline to 50.9 and the fastest pace of expansion in nearly four years.  However, the Apr composite PMI fell -2.1 to 48.6, weaker than expectations of 50.1 and the weakest level in 17 months.

Eurozone Mar new car registrations rose +12.5% y/y to 1.158 million units, the biggest increase in nearly two years.

The UK Apr S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +2.6 to 53.6, stronger than expectations of a decline to 50.3 and the fastest pace of expansion in nearly four years.

Swaps are discounting a 13% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

ServiceNow (NOW) is down more than -15% to lead software stocks lower and lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year subscription adjusted gross margin forecast to 81.5% from 82%, weaker than the consensus of 82.1%.  Also, IBM (IBM) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Atlassian (TEAM) is also down more than -9%.  In addition, Salesforce (CRM) is down more than -7%, and Workday (WDAY), Intuit (INTU), and Adobe Systems (ADBE) are down more than -6%.  Finally, Autodesk (ADSK) is down more than -5%, and Oracle (ORCL) is down more than -4%. 

Texas Instruments (TXN) is up more than +15% to lead chipmakers higher and gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q1 revenue of $4.83 billion, better than the consensus of $4.53 billion, and forecasting Q2 revenue of $5.00 billion to $5.40 billion, well above the consensus of $4.85 billion.  Also, ON Semiconductor (ON) is up more than +8%, and Microchip Technology (MCHP) is up more than +6%.  In addition, NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) is up more than +5%, and Analog Devices (ADI) is up more than +4%.  Finally, Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +3%, and Intel (INTC) is up more than 2%.

ASGN Inc (ASGN) is down more than -39% after reporting Q1 revenue of $968.3 million, below the consensus of $972.9 million, and forecasting Q2 revenue of $970 million to $1.00 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.02 billion. 

Medpace Holdings (MEDP) is down more than -25% after forecasting full-year EPS of $16.68 to $17.50, the midpoint below the consensus of $17.12. 

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is down more than -6% after raising its full-year capital expenditures forecast to $1.49 billion from a previous forecast of $1.33 billion, well above the consensus of $1.27 billion.

Honeywell International (HON) is down more than -2% after reporting Q1 sales of $9.14 billion, below the consensus of $9.30 billion.   

Tesla (TSLA) is down more than -2% after boosting its full-year capital expenditures to more than $25 billion to support its push into AI and robotics. 

United Rentals (URI) is up more than +18% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 revenue of $3.99 billion, above the consensus of $3.88 billion, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $16.9 billion-$17.4 billion from a previous forecast of $16.8 billion-$17.3 billion, stronger than the consensus of $17.07 billion. 

West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) is up more than +13% after reporting Q1 net sales of $844.9 million, well above the consensus of $780.4 million, and raising its full-year net sales forecast to $3.30 billion-$3.35 billion from a previous estimate of $3.22 billion-$3.28 billion, better than the consensus of $3.25 billion. 

Hasbro (HAS) is up more than +7% after reporting preliminary Q1 net revenue of $970 million to $985 million, well above the consensus of $908.6 million. 

Comcast (CMCSA) is up more than +6% after reporting Q1 revenue of $31.46 billion, stronger than the consensus of $30.35 billion. 

Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP) is up more than +6% after reporting Q1 net sales of $3.98 billion, above the consensus of $3.83 billion. 

CSX Corp. (CSX) is up more than +5% after reporting Q1 operating income of $1.25 billion, higher than the consensus of $1.14 billion.

Earnings Reports(4/23/2026)

American Express Co (AXP), Ameriprise Financial Inc (AMP), Baker Hughes Co (BKR), Blackstone Inc (BX), CBRE Group Inc (CBRE), CenterPoint Energy Inc (CNP), Comcast Corp (CMCSA), Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX), Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR), Dover Corp (DOV), Dow Inc (DOW), Edwards Lifesciences Corp (EW), Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE), Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX), Hartford Insurance Group Inc/The (HIG), Honeywell International Inc (HON), Huntington Bancshares Inc/OH (HBAN), Intel Corp (INTC), Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP), Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT), Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ), Newmont Corp (NEM), NextEra Energy Inc (NEE), PG&E Corp (PCG), Pool Corp (POOL), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), PulteGroup Inc (PHM), Roper Technologies Inc (ROP), Snap-on Inc (SNA), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO), Union Pacific Corp (UNP), VeriSign Inc (VRSN), West Pharmaceutical Services Inc (WST).