S&P Futures Climb as Investors Cheer U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Extension, Tesla Earnings in Focus

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are trending up +0.56% this morning as sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran.

President Trump said on Tuesday he would extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, attributing the breakdown in negotiations to what he described as a “seriously fractured” leadership structure in Tehran. Mr. Trump noted that the U.S. would refrain from launching new attacks but maintain its blockade of Iran’s ports until Tehran presents “a unified proposal.” Meanwhile, an Iranian official told local media that the country had received “some sign” the U.S. is ready to lift the blockade, without providing further details.

“The extension of the Iran ceasefire has reduced immediate escalation risk, supporting a rebound in U.S. equity futures,” said Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets. “Overall, markets are not pricing in a full resolution, but rather a controlled easing of risk, leaving sentiment fragile.”

The price of WTI crude rose over +1% on Wednesday after two ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on a container ship, while another vessel was attacked off Iran’s coast, according to U.K. Maritime Trade Operations.

Investors are now looking ahead to a new round of corporate earnings reports, with a particular focus on results from Magnificent Seven member Tesla.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed lower. Tractor Supply (TSCO) plunged over -11% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the farm supplier posted weaker-than-expected Q1 results. Also, Northrop Grumman (NOC) sank about -7% after the aerospace and defense company reaffirmed its FY26 adjusted EPS guidance that came in below expectations. In addition, Apple (AAPL) fell more than -2% after the iPhone maker announced that longtime leader Tim Cook will step down in September and will be succeeded by hardware chief John Ternus. On the bullish side, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) climbed nearly +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the insurance giant posted upbeat Q1 results and raised its FY26 adjusted EPS guidance.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. retail sales climbed +1.7% m/m in March, stronger than expectations of +1.4% m/m, while core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, jumped +1.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.4% m/m. Also, U.S. March pending home sales rose +1.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of no change m/m.

“The March retail sales report was unquestionably a great sign that consumer spending is picking up,” said Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates.

Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, said in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday that the central bank needs a new framework for addressing persistent inflation and a new approach to communicating with the public, without providing further specifics. Warsh also said President Trump has not asked him to commit to any specific rate decisions. “The president nominated me for the position, and I’ll be an independent actor if confirmed as chairman of the Federal Reserve,” he said.

First-quarter corporate earnings season rolls on, with all eyes today on Tesla (TSLA), the first of the Magnificent Seven companies to report. Investors will also parse earnings reports from other prominent companies such as Lam Research (LRCX), International Business Machines (IBM), Texas Instruments (TXN), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Philip Morris International (PM), and ServiceNow (NOW). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +12% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be -1 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of -0.9 million barrels.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.5% chance of no rate change and a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.29%, down -0.19%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.04% this morning as investors assess U.S. President Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire extension with Iran, while also digesting a wave of corporate earnings reports. President Trump on Tuesday extended the ceasefire with Iran, but peace talks that were expected this week appear to be in limbo and have collapsed before they could even begin. Energy stocks led the gains on Wednesday as oil prices advanced. Technology stocks also climbed, helped by a more than +8% gain in ASM International N.V. (ASM.NA) after the semiconductor equipment company posted better-than-expected Q1 revenue and issued above-consensus Q2 revenue guidance. In addition, mining stocks advanced. At the same time, travel stocks underperformed as elevated energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on the sector. Data from the Office for National Statistics released on Wednesday showed that the U.K.’s annual inflation rate jumped in March as the Middle East conflict pushed up energy prices, although it is unlikely to prompt Bank of England policymakers to raise their key interest rate at next week’s meeting. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Martins Kazaks told the Financial Times in an interview published on Wednesday that the central bank has the “luxury” of not having to hurry to raise interest rates. Investors now turn their focus to the Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence reading for April due later in the session. In other corporate news, Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc (RKT.LN) slumped more than -9% amid weak demand for its medicines.

U.K. CPI and Core CPI were released today.

U.K. March CPI rose +0.7% m/m and +3.3% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.6% m/m and +3.3% y/y.

U.K. March Core CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +3.2% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.52%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.40%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, hitting a 3-month high as the extension of the Middle East ceasefire spurred cautious optimism among investors. President Trump on Tuesday extended the ceasefire with Iran, but added that the U.S. would maintain the blockade of the country’s ports until Tehran presents “a unified proposal.” Although it was unclear on Wednesday whether Iran or Israel would agree, investors largely drew encouragement from the development. Nanhua Futures analysts said, “Middle East geopolitical risks are gradually easing, and the market is becoming increasingly desensitised to geopolitical conflicts.” Semiconductor and other AI-related stocks were among the biggest gainers on Wednesday. 5G Communications stocks also jumped. At the same time, shares of major tech firms, including Alibaba Group and JD.com, slipped in Hong Kong amid concerns about their near-term profitability due to regulatory pressure and a lack of clear catalysts to reinforce their leadership in the nation’s AI race. Meanwhile, Daiwa analyst Steven Nie said in a note on Wednesday that the outlook for China’s consumer stocks remains positive. Nie views the recovery in offline traffic as a key theme for restaurants, freshly made drinks, and breweries this year, which should expand profit pools across the catering value chain. Elsewhere, JPMorgan strategist Rajiv Batra said China’s battered property market is likely nearing a turning point that could help the nation’s stocks outperform their emerging-market peers. In corporate news, Johnson Electric plunged over -17% in Hong Kong after warning that its annual profit is expected to decline between 21% and 25%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher and hit a record high today, buoyed by a revival of the AI trade, though uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace talks capped gains. Technology was the only sector that ended in the green on Wednesday, yet it was enough to lift the Nikkei to a new record high, thanks to gains in a handful of heavily weighted stocks. Tech investment firm SoftBank Group surged over +8% and chip-testing equipment maker Advantest gained more than +2%, boosting the benchmark index by about 353 and 169 points, respectively. Meanwhile, JPMorgan on Wednesday lifted its year-end target for the Nikkei to 70,000 from 61,000, citing a boom in AI and a weaker yen. “Although some think the Nikkei 225 is overheated, rising to record highs while crude oil prices remain elevated, we think the Japanese equity market’s longer-term growth potential has increased further,” the firm’s analysts said. On the economic front, data on Wednesday showed that Japan’s exports rose for a seventh consecutive month in March, driven by demand from AI data centres. The nation’s imports also posted double-digit growth last month, as the effects of oil supply disruptions stemming from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have not yet fully filtered through. Japan’s trade outlook for the coming months remains clouded by the Middle East conflict. Investor attention for the remainder of the week is on Japan’s April PMI data, which will offer a timely snapshot of business conditions, as well as the March National Core CPI that will provide early evidence of the pass-through from higher energy prices. In corporate news, Sapporo Holdings slid over -5% after the brewer said it would exit the craft beer business in the U.S. and divest Stone Brewing just four years after acquiring it. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -0.80% to 29.73.

The Japanese March Trade Balance stood at 667.0 billion yen, weaker than expectations of 1,106.0 billion yen.

The Japanese March Exports rose +11.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +11.0% y/y.

The Japanese March Imports rose +10.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +7.1% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks edged higher in pre-market trading, led by more than +1% gains in Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT).

Chip stocks advanced in pre-market trading, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) rising over +2% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gaining more than +1%.

Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) rose more than +3% in pre-market trading after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $625.

Adobe (ADBE) climbed over +3% in pre-market trading after the software company said its board had authorized a $25 billion stock buyback program.

Capital One Financial (COF) slid about -3% in pre-market trading after the credit-card issuer posted weaker-than-expected Q1 results.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - April 22nd

Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCX), GE Vernova (GEV), Philip Morris International (PM), International Business Machines (IBM), Texas Instruments (TXN), AT&T Inc. (T), The Boeing Company (BA), Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT), ServiceNow (NOW), CME Group (CME), Boston Scientific (BSX), Moody's (MCO), CSX Corporation (CSX), TE Connectivity (TEL), Elevance Health (ELV), Kinder Morgan (KMI), United Rentals (URI), Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB), Waste Connections (WCN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Crown Castle (CCI), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), Raymond James Financial (RJF), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Rollins (ROL), Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), Reliance (RS), Medpace Holdings (MEDP), Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP), Graco (GGG), Masco (MAS), Stifel Financial (SF), Globe Life (GL), CACI International (CACI), EastGroup Properties (EGP), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX), SEI Investments Company (SEIC), Old National Bancorp (ONB), First Industrial Realty Trust (FR), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Essential Properties Realty Trust (EPRT), First American Financial (FAF), Hexcel (HXL), Churchill Downs (CHDN), WEX Inc. (WEX), NewMarket (NEU), Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC), RLI Corp. (RLI), Selective Insurance Group (SIGI), Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL), Meritage Homes (MTH), Liberty Energy (LBRT), QuantumScape (QS), Fulton Financial (FULT), AZZ Inc. (AZZ), Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN), Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP), Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Oceaneering International (OII), First BanCorp. (FBP), Cathay General Bancorp (CATY), BankUnited (BKU), M/I Homes (MHO), Banc of California (BANC), First Merchants (FRME), Kaiser Aluminum (KALU), Banner (BANR), ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR), Pathward Financial (CASH), Enterprise Financial Services (EFSC), Getty Realty (GTY), Stewart Information Services (STC), Veris Residential (VRE), Century Communities (CCS), Live Oak Bancshares (LOB), ASGN Incorporated (ASGN), Goosehead Insurance (GSHD), RPC, Inc. (RES), QCR Holdings (QCRH), Origin Bancorp (OBK), Helix Energy Solutions Group (HLX), Preferred Bank (PFBC), Old Second Bancorp (OSBC), Univest Financial (UVSP).