Stocks Mixed as US Set to Blockade the Strait of Hormuz

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.39%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.21%. 

Stock indexes are mixed this morning even as crude oil prices surge after President Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the deadlocked peace talks over the weekend between the US and Iran.  President Trump said the US will begin a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz today and threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance.  Iran said it would target all ports in and close to the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened. 

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) remain volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses amid news headlines about Iran.  The price of crude is up more than +5% today as the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that call at Iranian ports or were headed there.  The blockade could exacerbate oil and fuel shortages globally, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Iran has been able to export crude during the war, as it exported about 1.7 million bpd in March.

Earnings season begins this week as money center banks report, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around 3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down by -1.02%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.06%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.74%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.8 bp to 4.325%.  T-notes are sliding today on inflation concerns.  WTI crude oil prices are up by more than +7%, boosting inflation expectations, as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 3-week high of 2.396% today.  Losses in T-notes are limited as today’s slump in stocks has boosted some safe-haven demand for T-notes. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +2.0 bp to 3.078%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +3.1 bp to 4.866%.

Swaps are discounting a 34% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are falling as today’s +7% jump in crude oil prices threatens to raise fuel costs and undercut corporate profits.  Carnival (CCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are down more than -3%.  Also, American Airlines Group (AAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) are down more than -2%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving lower today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -3%.  MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are down more than -3%.  Also, Coinbase Global (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) are down more than -2%.

Energy stocks and energy service providers are climbing today, with the price of WTI crude oil up by more than +7%.  APA Corp (APA) and ConocoPhillips(COP) are up more than +2%, and Chevron (CVX) is up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.  Also, Diamondback Energy (FANG), Devon Energy (DVN), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are up more than +1%.

Goldman Sachs (GS) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q1 FICC sales and trading revenue of $4.01 billion, weaker than the consensus of $4.87 billion. 

Fastenal (FAST) is down more than -2% after reporting Q1 operating income of $447.6 million, below the consensus of $449.3 million. 

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is down more than -3% after Raymond James downgraded the stock to outperform from strong buy. 

Conagra Brands (CAG) is down more than -3% after it said it is replacing CEO Sean Connolly with John Brase at the end of next month.

Best Buy (BBY) is down more than -2% after Goldman Sachs double-downgraded the stock to sell from buy with a price target of $59. 

Revolution Medicines (RVMD) is up more than +40% after its treatment for an aggressive form of pancreatic cancer boosted patients’ survival in a late-stage trial.

Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) is up more than +20% after saying a mid-late stage trial of its experimental combination therapy for a type of eye cancer had met its main goal. 

Leggett & Platt (LEG) is up more than +11% after Somnigroup agreed to buy the company for about $2.5 billion.

Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +3% after Nasdaq announced the stock will replace Atlassian in the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index, before the market opens on Monday, April 20.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up more than +2% after President Trump said the company has “proven to have great war-fighting capabilities and equipment.” 

ON Semiconductor Corp (ON) is up more than +1% after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $85.

Earnings Reports(4/13/2026)

Atlantic International Corp (ATLN), Fastenal Co (FAST), FB Financial Corp (FBK), Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The (GS), Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN), NextNRG Inc (NXXT).