Stocks Climb as Middle East Ceasefire Holds

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.64%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.32%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.08%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.62%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +1.15%.

Stock indexes are climbing today, with the Nasdaq 100 posting a new all-time high.   The weakness in crude oil prices and strength in technology stocks are supporting the broader market today.  WTI crude is down more than -3% today as the ceasefire in the Middle East appears to be holding.  Also, Intel is up more than +10% to lead chipmakers higher after Apple said it has held exploratory discussions with Intel, as well as Samsung Electronics, to produce the main processors for its devices in the US. 

The US Mar trade deficit widened to -$60.3 billion from -$57.8 billion in Feb, narrower than expectations of -$61.0 billion.

Relative calm returned to the Persian Gulf today after US and Iranian forces exchanged fire on Monday in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran launched missiles and drones toward the United Arab Emirates (UAE).  Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks with the US are “making progress” and said events in Hormuz make clear “there’s no military solution to a potential crisis.”  Mr.  Araghchi is traveling to China today for talks on regional and international developments. The US is pressuring China to help convince Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as China buys almost all of Iran’s oil exports. 

President Trump said the US will begin guiding some neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz.  US Central Command said it would provide military support, including guided-missile destroyers, aircraft, and drones, to ships transiting the strait. 

WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) are down more than -3% today as calm returned to the Persian Gulf following Monday, when the US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz.  The US Central Command said the US military has opened a passage through the strait, and US helicopters have destroyed small boats going after commercial vessels.  The strait remains essentially closed, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June.

The markets are discounting a 7% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

Earnings results thus far this reporting season have been supportive of stocks.  As of today, 82% of the 322 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates.  Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.45%.  China's Shanghai Composite did not trade, with markets in China closed for the Labor Day holiday.  Japan's Nikkei Stock Average did not trade, with markets in Japan closed for the Children’s Day holiday.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +6 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.0 bp to 4.418%.  Jun T-notes have support today from falling crude prices as WTI crude oil is down more than -3%, easing inflation expectations.  The strength in stocks today has dampened safe-haven demand for government debt securities and is limiting gains in T-notes.

European government bond yields are mixed today.  The 10-year German Bund yield is down -1.1 bp to 3.076%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 6-week high of 5.102% and is up +11.0 bp to 5.074%. 

Swaps are discounting a 93% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11.

US Stock Movers

Intel (INTC) is up more than +10% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks higher after Apple said it has held exploratory discussions about using the company, as well as Samsung Electronics, to produce the main processors for its devices in the US.  Also, Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +8%, and SanDisk (SNDK), Lam Research (LRCX), and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +4%.  In addition, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Applied Materials (AMAT) are up more than +3%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +2%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher today with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +1% at a 3-month high.  Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +4%, and Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are up more than +2%.  Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +1%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) is up +0.14%. 

Waters Corp (WAT) is up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 sales of $1.275 billion, better than the consensus of $1.20 billion and raising its full-year sales estimate at constant exchange rates to +6.5% to +8.0% from a previous estimate of +5.5% to +7.0%.

Pinterest (PINS) is up more than +11% after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.01 billion, stronger than the consensus of $965.7 million. 

Rockwell Automation (ROK) is up more than +10% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.30, well above the consensus of $2.88, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $12.50-$13.10 from a previous forecast of $11.40-$12.20, better than the consensus of $12.10. 

Dupont de Nemours (DD) is up more than +6% after raising its full-year net sales forecast to $7.16 billion to $7.22 billion from a previous forecast of $7.08 billion to $7.14 billion, above the consensus of $7.10 billion.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is up more than +5% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of 71 cents, above the consensus of 65 cents, and forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $4.15 to $4.70, the midpoint above the consensus of $4.23.

Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) is down more than -15% after cutting its full-year revenue outlook to $825 million to $875 million from a previous estimate of $950 million to $1.0 billion.

Aptiv Plc (APTV) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year net sales forecast to $12.80 billion to $13.20 billion from a previous forecast of $21.12 billion to $21.82 billion.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) is down more than -9% after CEO Lores said it will still take a “few months” to fully define a future plan for the company.

Westlake Corp (WLK) is down more than -8% after reporting Q1 net sales of $2.65 billion, below the consensus of $2.80 billion.

Eaton (ETN) is down more than -6% after forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.00 to $3.10, below the consensus of $3.14.

Fiserv (FISV) is down more than -5% after reporting Q1 adjusted revenue of $4.68 billion, weaker than the consensus of $4.73 billion. 

Duolingo (DUOL) is down more than -4% after reporting Q1 paid subscribers of 12.50 million, below the consensus of 12.66 million, and forecasting full-year bookings of $1.28 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.29 billion.

Earnings Reports(5/5/2026)

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Ameren Corp (AEE), American Electric Power Co Inc (AEP), Aptiv PLC (APTV), Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM), Arista Networks Inc (ANET), Assurant Inc (AIZ), Ball Corp (BALL), Corteva Inc (CTVA), Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA), Cummins Inc (CMI), DaVita Inc (DVA), Devon Energy Corp (DVN), Duke Energy Corp (DUK), DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD), Eaton Corp PLC (ETN), Electronic Arts Inc (EA), Emerson Electric Co (EMR), EOG Resources Inc (EOG), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Fiserv Inc (FISV), Gartner Inc (IT), Healthpeak Properties Inc (DOC), Henry Schein Inc (HSIC), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), IDEXX Laboratories Inc (IDXX), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), IQVIA Holdings Inc (IQV), Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY), Jacobs Solutions Inc (J), KKR & Co Inc (KKR), Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS), Live Nation Entertainment Inc (LYV), Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE), Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC), Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL), Pfizer Inc (PFE), Prudential Financial Inc (PRU), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Revvity Inc (RVTY), Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK), Skyworks Solutions Inc (SWKS), Solventum Corp (SOLV), Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI), TransDigm Group Inc (TDG), Waters Corp (WAT), WEC Energy Group Inc (WEC).