Stocks Set to Open Lower as Oil Prices Climb on Renewed Middle East Tensions, U.S. Jobs Data and Earnings Awaited

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are down -0.12%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are down -0.10% this morning, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street as oil prices surged amid renewed tensions in the Middle East.

Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 0.5% on Monday after Iran’s Fars news agency reported that two missiles struck an American patrol boat in the Strait of Hormuz that had ignored warnings. Stock index futures trimmed most of the declines after a U.S. Central Command spokesperson denied the report. Still, the price of WTI crude was up over +3% after initially spiking more than +5%. U.S. President Trump earlier said that the U.S. would start escorting certain neutral vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz beginning Monday.

Stock index futures initially moved higher, led by technology stocks amid optimism surrounding the AI trade.

This week, market participants look ahead to a new round of corporate earnings reports, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and a slew of U.S. labor market data.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed mostly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notching new record highs. Apple (AAPL) rose over +3% after the iPhone maker reported better-than-expected FQ2 results and gave a surprisingly strong FQ3 revenue growth forecast. Also, SanDisk (SNDK) climbed more than +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the flash memory maker posted stellar FQ3 results and issued above-consensus FQ4 guidance. In addition, Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) jumped over +29% after the workflow software company posted upbeat FQ3 results and raised its full-year revenue growth guidance. On the bearish side, Clorox (CLX) sank more than -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the cleaning-products maker cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance.

Economic data released on Friday was slightly negative for equities. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index was unchanged at 52.7 in April, weaker than expectations of 53.1. At the same time, the ISM prices paid sub-index rose to a 4-year high of 84.6 in April, stronger than expectations of 80.0.

“The Fed will pay attention to this, no matter who is serving as FOMC chair. What we hear from purchasing managers is that the cost of everything coming in the door has gone up because of higher fuel costs ​for deliveries,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

Meanwhile, three Fed officials said on Friday they dissented over the FOMC policy statement because they no longer believed it was appropriate to signal that the next move was still likely to be a rate cut. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an essay that “the FOMC should offer a policy outlook that signals that the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike, depending on how the economy evolves.” Also, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that rising oil prices are contributing to broad-based inflationary pressures. “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased in 2026 and makes the future path for monetary policy more uncertain, as well,” Hammack said. In addition, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she is growing increasingly concerned about how long it will take to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target. “It could plausibly be appropriate for the FOMC’s next rate change to be either an increase or a cut,” Logan said.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.8% chance of no rate change and a 5.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in June.

The U.S. April Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the main highlight this week, as investors seek signs of how the Middle East conflict has affected the economy. Economists project the key jobs report to show a solid increase in payrolls, accelerating wage growth, a steady unemployment rate, and a pickup in labor force participation, indicating that the labor market has yet to reflect any impact from the energy shock tied to the conflict. The JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and Initial Jobless Claims will provide additional clues on whether the U.S. is emerging from the “low-hire, low-fire” trend. The ISM services index and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index (preliminary) will also draw attention. Other noteworthy data releases include the Trade Balance, the S&P Global Services PMI, New Home Sales, Nonfarm Productivity (preliminary), Unit Labor Costs (preliminary), and Consumer Credit.

Market participants will also pay close attention to speeches from Fed officials for signals on how worried they are about price pressures. Higher fuel costs, driven up by the Middle East conflict, have fueled concerns that price pressures could broaden and worsen already elevated inflation. New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Fed Governor Michael Barr, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are scheduled to speak this week.

First-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, and investors await new reports from prominent companies this week, including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Arm Holdings (ARM), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Walt Disney (DIS), McDonald’s (MCD), Arista Networks (ANET), Shopify (SHOP), AppLovin (APP), Uber Technologies (UBER), CVS Health (CVS), Pfizer (PFE), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and CoreWeave (CRWV). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +12% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. Factory Orders data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to rise +0.5% m/m in March, compared to unchanged m/m in February.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.38%, up +0.09%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -1.14% this morning as investors returned from a long weekend to fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. Sentiment also weakened as oil prices surged amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. Automobile stocks sank on Monday as investors responded to the prospect of higher U.S. tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the European Union. U.S. President Trump said on Friday that he would raise the tariffs to 25% this week from the previously agreed 15%, accusing the EU of failing to comply with a trade deal signed last year. Trump said the tariffs would not apply to vehicles manufactured at U.S. plants. The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry said the move is an unnecessary escalation of the transatlantic trade conflict and threatens the EU’s implementation of the trade agreement. Still, Bernstein analysts said the escalation could be eased if the bloc accelerates the removal of tariffs on U.S. industrial goods. Utility and food & beverage stocks also slid. Limiting losses, technology stocks advanced on optimism surrounding the AI trade. After the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept rates unchanged at their April meetings, investor attention now shifts to remarks from monetary officials, as well as data and surveys indicating how the fallout from the Middle East conflict is affecting inflation and growth. A survey released on Monday showed that Eurozone manufacturers hurried to stockpile raw materials in April amid fears of further supply disruptions and rising costs tied to the conflict, while business confidence fell to its lowest level since late 2024. Separately, an ECB survey showed that Eurozone inflation is set to jump this year on higher energy prices, but will then ease swiftly and return to around the 2% target next year. In addition, the Sentix index measuring investor sentiment in the Eurozone improved slightly in May, suggesting that investors do not anticipate a further escalation of the conflict. Investors will also focus on Eurozone retail sales and producer price data for March, along with Germany’s and France’s industrial production figures for March, due later in the week. In addition, ECB officials, including President Christine Lagarde, Vice President Luis de Guindos, and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, are scheduled to speak this week. In corporate news, Umicore SA (UMI.B.DX) surged over +14% after the Belgian materials group raised its full-year EBITDA guidance.

Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence Index were released today.

Eurozone’s April Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.2, in line with expectations.

The Eurozone May Sentix Investor Confidence Index arrived at -16.4, stronger than expectations of -20.9.

Financial markets in Japan and mainland China were closed for holidays.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index was closed today for the Labor Day holiday. Mainland China’s financial markets will reopen on Wednesday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index was closed today for the Greenery Day holiday. Financial markets in Japan will remain closed on Tuesday and Wednesday for the Children’s Day and Constitution Memorial Day holidays, respectively. The markets will reopen on Thursday.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

eBay (EBAY) climbed over +8% in pre-market trading after GameStop late on Friday announced an unexpected $56 billion takeover offer for the company.

The Trade Desk (TTD) rose more than +1% in pre-market trading after Wedbush upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underperform.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) gained about +0.5% in pre-market trading after the conglomerate reported an 18% increase in its Q1 operating earnings after taxes, supported by strength in its railroad business and higher insurance underwriting income.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) slumped over -7% in pre-market trading after the cruise line operator cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance.

Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) fell over -1% in pre-market trading after Baird downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - May 4th

Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), The Williams Companies (WMB), Diamondback Energy (FANG), ON Semiconductor (ON), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Fabrinet (FN), Loews (L), Tyson Foods (TSN), BWX Technologies (BWXT), RB Global (RBA), Viper Energy (VNOM), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Sterling Infrastructure (STRL), Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS), Corebridge Financial (CRBG), CNA Financial (CNA), Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Equitable Holdings (EQH), Pinterest (PINS), Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN), Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN), Powell Industries (POWL), Hess Midstream (HESM), Krystal Biotech (KRYS), Transocean (RIG), Valaris (VAL), MSA Safety (MSA), Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), JBT Marel (JBTM), New Jersey Resources (NJR), ONE Gas (OGS), Firefly Aerospace (FLY), Matson (MATX), Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS), Duolingo (DUOL), OSI Systems (OSIS), Crescent Energy Company (CRGY), Tidewater (TDW), Travere Therapeutics (TVTX), Otter Tail (OTTR), National Health Investors (NHI), Twist Bioscience (TWST), Adeia (ADEA), Golub Capital BDC (GBDC), Paymentus Holdings (PAY), IAC Inc. (IAC), The Marzetti Company (MZTI), Dorman Products (DORM), The Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN), Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE), Black Stone Minerals (BSM), Dyne Therapeutics (DYN), Boise Cascade Company (BCC), Ero Copper (ERO), Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX), Ichor Holdings (ICHR), Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI), V2X, Inc. (VVX), Alamo Group (ALG), GeneDx Holdings (WGS), Innovex International (INVX), Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC), Addus HomeCare (ADUS), Sonos (SONO), Weis Markets (WMK), Napco Security Technologies (NSSC), Ameresco (AMRC), Inspire Medical Systems (INSP), Voyager Technologies (VOYG), Nuvation Bio (NUVB), Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), UFP Technologies (UFPT), Tennant Company (TNC), ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN), RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ), Alexander’s (ALX).