Stocks Slide as Robust Jobs Data Signals Fewer Fed Rate Cuts

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.35%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.82%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.20%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.35%.

Stock indexes are sliding today after nonfarm payrolls increased more than expected last month by the most in 13 months, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, signaling a stable labor market. On the negative side, the strength of the Jan payroll report pushed bond yields higher and dampened expectations for additional Fed interest rate cuts.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +4 bp to 4.18%, and the chance of a Fed rate cut at next month’s FOMC meeting fell to 6% from 23% before today’s payroll report. 

Corporate earnings results are mixed for stocks.  Vertiv Holdings is up more than +23% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q1 EPS with bullish forward guidance.  Also, Cloudflare is up more than +10% after reporting better-than-expected Q4 earnings and giving a bullish revenue forecast.  Conversely, Mattel is down more than -27% after forecasting weaker-than-expected 2026 adjusted EPS.  Also, Robinhood is down more than -9% after forecasting weaker-than-expected Q1 EPS. 

US MBA mortgage applications fell -0.3% in the week ended February 6, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -2.4% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +1.2%.  The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was unchanged from the prior week at 6.21%.

US Jan nonfarm payrolls rose +130,000, stronger than expectations of +65,000 and the most in 13 months.  The Jan unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 4.3%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 4.4%.

US Jan average hourly earnings rose +3.7% y/y, right on expectations.

The markets this week will focus on corporate earnings results and economic news.  On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to fall by -7,000 to 224,000.  Also, Jan existing home sales are expected to decline by -4.3% m/m to 4.16 million.  On Friday, Jan CPI is expected to be up +2.5% y/y, and Jan core CPI is expected to be up +2.5% y/y.

Q4 earnings season is in full swing, as more than half of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 78% of the 319 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 6% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.32%.  China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1.5-week high and closed up +0.09%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 did not trade as markets in Japan were closed today for the National Foundation Day holiday.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down by -11 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +4.2 bp to 4.184%.  Mar T-notes fell from a 5-week high today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose from a 6-week low of 4.117%.  T-notes erased early gains today and retreated on the stronger-than-expected US Jan payroll report, which is hawkish for Fed policy.  Also, strength in stocks today has curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes. In addition, supply pressures are bearish for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $42 billion of 10-year T-notes later today.    

European government bond yields are mixed today.  The 10-year German bund yield rebounded from a 2-month low of 2.791% and is up +0.6 bp to 2.815%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -0.6 bp to 4.500%.

Swaps are discounting a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Strength in chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks is supportive for the broader market.  Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Lam Research (LRCX) is up more than +4%, and Western Digital (WDC), KLA Corp (KLAC), Applied Materials (AMAT), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Intel (INTC) are up more than +3%. In addition, ASML Holding NV (ASML), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Analog Devices (ADI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +2%.

Teradata (TDC) is up more than +39% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of 74 cents, better than the consensus of 56 cents, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $2.55 to $2.65, stronger than the consensus of $2.50.

Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is up more than +23% after forecasting full-year net sales of $13.25 billion to $13.75 billion, well above the consensus of $12.43 billion.

Beta Technologies (BETA) is up more than +16% after Amazon.com disclosed a 5.1% stake in the company. 

Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) is up more than +15% after forecasting Q1 revenue of $158 million to $172 million, well above the consensus of $148.1 million. 

Generac Holdings (GNRC) is up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after forecasting a full-year Ebitda margin of 18% to 19%, the midpoint above the consensus of 18.1%.

Cloudflare (NET) is up more than +10% after reporting Q4 revenue of $614.5 million, better than the consensus of $591.4 million, and forecasting full-year revenue of $2.79 billion to $2,80 billion, above the consensus of $2.74 billion. 

GlobalFoundries (GFS) is up more than +10% after reporting Q4 net revenue of $1.83 billion, above the consensus of $1.80 billion. 

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is up more than +4% after reporting a successful unfolding of its next-generation BlueBird 6 satellite. 

Mattel (MAT) is down more than -27% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, weaker than the consensus of 54 cents, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $1.18 to $1.30, well below the consensus of $1.76. 

Rapid7 Inc (RPD) is down more than -23% after forecasting full-year revenue of $835 million to $843 million, weaker than the consensus of $869.8 million. 

Lyft (LYFT) is down more than -13% after reporting Q4 rides of 243.5 million, well below the consensus of 255.87 million. 

Moderna (MRNA) is down more than -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after US regulators refused to review the company’s mRNA flu vaccine. 

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is down more than -9% after reporting Q4 net revenue of $1.28 billion, below the consensus of $1.35 billion.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) is down more than -3% after saying it will pause its planned separation as new CEO Cahillane works to improve results.

Earnings Reports(2/11/2026)

Albemarle Corp (ALB), Ameren Corp (AEE), AppLovin Corp (APP), Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), Equinix Inc (EQIX), Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), Humana Inc (HUM), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Kraft Heinz Co/The (KHC), Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM), McDonald’s Corp (MCD), Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI), NiSource Inc (NI), Paycom Software Inc (PAYC), Rollins Inc (ROL), Shopify Inc (SHOP), Smurfit Westrock PLC (SW), T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS), Westinghouse Air Brake Technol (WAB).