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T-Bond Jun '19 (ZBM19)

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T-Bond Futures Market News and Commentary

10-Year T-Notes Climb on Weak U.S. Economic Data and New Low in Inflation Expectations

Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are up +1.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield is up +0.7 bp to 2.089%. T-note prices this morning erased early losses and moved higher on weak U.S. economic data along with a new low in inflation expectations. T-notes moved higher this morning after the U.S. Jun Empire manufacturing index plunged by -25.4 points to a 2-1/2 year low of -8.6, weaker than expectations of -6.8 to 11.0. T-notes remained higher after inflation expectations fell as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate fell to a new 2-3/4 year low today of 1.616%. Comments from ECB Executive Board member Coeure also supported German bunds and T-note prices today when he said, "the constellation of prices in the bond market paints a picture of the global economy which is very bleak" and the ECB will act if needed to support the economy. Finally, early weakness in U.S. equity markets today is boosting safe-haven demand for T-notes. The market is now discounting the odds of a -25 bp rate cut at 20% for the Tues/Wed FOMC meeting (June 18-19) and at 82% for the following FOMC meeting on July 30-31.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
U.S. Treasury Bond Futures
Contract Size
$100,000
Tick Size
32nds of a point ($31.25 per contract) rounded up to the nearest cent per contract; par is on the basis of 100 points
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$2,640/2,400
First Notice Date
05/31/19
Expiration Date
06/19/19 (2 days)

Seasonal Chart

T-Bond Jun '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jun Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 11, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
582,662 (-10,328)
640,762 (+15,316)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
184,502 (+18,475)
166,313 (-9,226)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
5,897 (-1,948)
117,417 (+22,427)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
426,732 (+551)
319,408 (-2,156)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
137,007 (+22,470)
152,208 (+2,296)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
28,756 (+3,650)
49,270 (+99)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
148-30 +4.18%
on 05/21/19
155-22 -0.34%
on 06/03/19
+5-15 (+3.65%)
since 05/17/19
3-Month
145-12 +6.73%
on 03/19/19
155-22 -0.34%
on 06/03/19
+8-31 (+6.14%)
since 03/15/19

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Most Recent Stories

More News
10-Year T-Notes Climb on Weak U.S. Economic Data and New Low in Inflation Expectations

Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are up +1.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield is up +0.7 bp to 2.089%. T-note prices this morning erased early losses and moved higher on weak U.S. economic data along...

Stock Index Futures Higher in Spite of Weak US Economic Data

US stock index futures are higher in spite of news that the June Empire State manufacturing index posted its largest ever decline into negative territory.

Downside Bias = Downside Day

On Friday we suggested a downside day and the markets dropped. Will this continue today or will the markets change direction? Read on to learn more...

25000 Crores worth of Loan defaults in PNB! But Markets have already foreseen this!

Punjab National Bank has admitted of defaults worth around 25000 Crores to 1,142 big and small borrowers all over India. But Stock market has already priced in the Impact

ADL Predicts Expected Range Of The NASDAQ Before Breakout

Our advanced predictive modeling system is suggesting a defined range for the NQ over the next 30 to 60+ days before a bigger breakout move is expected.

The Trend Trader For Futures Trading on Monday, June 17, 2019

The Trend Trader helps to identify the current trend status of your favorite futures markets. It not only helps us to stay on the right side of market direction, but also helps us avoid those without a...

10-Year T-Notes Close Slightly Higher on a New Low in Inflation Expectations

Sep 10-year T-notes on Friday closed +3 ticks higher, and the 10-year T-note yield fell -1.2 bp to 2.082%. T-note prices on Friday rallied on a weak U.S. consumer sentiment report, safe-haven demand due...

Will the US Economy Fall into Recession? Or Will It Accelerate? Lessons from the 1990s Expansion for the Economy and the Gold Market

The current economic expansion has just equaled with the longest boom in the US history. Is that not suspicious? We invite you to read our todays article, which provide you with the valuable lessons...

US Retail Sales comes in mixed for May, but with surprise positive revisions to April data.

Fed rate cut frenzy trade gets dialed back. Gold, bonds, Eurodollar off highs. USD broadly higher. Pressure mounts for ECB to cut rates too as 5y5y inflation swap forwards trade...

Gold Futures Advance to a 14 Month High

U.S. stock index futures are lower as investors reacted to weaker-than-expected factory data in China and escalating tensions in the Gulf region.

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Buy with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 155-27
1st Resistance Point 155-13
Last Price 154-30
1st Support Level 154-19
2nd Support Level 154-07

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52-Week High 155-22
Last Price 154-30
Fibonacci 61.8% 148-03
Fibonacci 50% 145-24
Fibonacci 38.2% 143-12
52-Week Low 135-25

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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