March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are up +0.27%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are up +0.64% this morning, pointing to a higher open on Wall Street despite fresh geopolitical tensions following the U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
The U.S. ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a surprise military operation over the weekend. President Trump said on Saturday that the U.S. would “run Venezuela” during its transition to new leadership, though details and timing remain unclear. Gold and silver prices climbed after the Trump administration’s move to capture and extract the Venezuelan president was seen as heightening geopolitical risks across Latin America.
Meanwhile, futures on the Nasdaq 100 outperformed as investors ramped up bets on technology shares. Chip stocks such as Micron Technology and Advanced Micro Devices climbed in pre-market trading.
Lower bond yields today are also supporting stock index futures.
This week, investors look ahead to a slew of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed mixed. Chip stocks rallied, with Micron Technology (MU) surging over +10% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Lam Research (LRCX) climbing more than +8%. Also, ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) advanced over +8% after Aletheia Capital double-upgraded the stock to Buy from Sell with a price target of $1,500. In addition, RH (RH) rose about +8%, and Wayfair (W) gained more than +6% after President Trump delayed tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities by a year. On the bearish side, most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks fell, with Tesla (TSLA) and Microsoft (MSFT) dropping over -2%.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the U.S. December S&P Global manufacturing PMI was kept unrevised at 51.8, in line with expectations.
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said on Saturday that the central bank could be in a position to cut interest rates further if inflation eases, but indicated that any additional reductions may not come immediately. “I see inflation moderating, the labor market stabilizing, and growth coming in around 2% this year,” Paulson said. “If all of that happens, then some modest further adjustments to the funds rate would likely be appropriate later in the year.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 81.7% chance of no rate change and an 18.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.
The U.S. December Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the main highlight this week, as investors gauge the likely timing of the Fed’s next interest-rate cut. Though some government agencies are still working through reports delayed by last year’s record-long government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the key jobs report on Friday as originally scheduled. The JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and Initial Jobless Claims data will offer additional insights into the health of the labor market. “Risks are balanced toward weaker labor market outcomes that would have Fed officials cutting rates more significantly below 3%,” according to Citi analysts. Also, several reports that were delayed by the shutdown will be published this week, including October factory orders, October housing starts, and preliminary third-quarter productivity and costs data. Other noteworthy data releases include the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, the S&P Global Composite PMI, the S&P Global Services PMI, Consumer Credit, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary).
Market participants will also parse comments this week from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.
In addition, several notable companies, including Corona beer maker Constellation Brands (STZ), data center operator Applied Digital (APLD), and investment bank Jefferies Financial (JEF), are slated to release their quarterly results this week.
Today, investors will focus on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, set to be released in a couple of hours. The survey will be closely watched for insights into the state of the economy and for clues on inflation and employment trends. Economists expect the December ISM manufacturing index to be 48.3, compared to the previous value of 48.2.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.173%, down -0.43%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.66% this morning, kicking off the first full week of the new year on a positive note. Defense stocks led the gains on Monday as U.S. intervention in Venezuela heightened investor concerns over an escalating threat environment. Technology and mining stocks also advanced. Meanwhile, analysts and strategists expect European equities to have more room to run in 2026. Banks are favored for another strong performance, with Morgan Stanley and Barclays naming them among their top picks. Also, bullish themes tied to increased defense spending, renewables, and electrification have further room to run. Investor focus this week is on the Eurozone’s preliminary inflation data for December, which will round out the picture for inflation at the end of 2025. The data are unlikely to alter the European Central Bank’s view that it is “in a good place” and expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the coming months. Eurozone retail sales figures and the unemployment rate for November will also attract attention. In addition, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, chief economist Philip Lane, and Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau will be making appearances throughout the week. In corporate news, Asml Holding (ASML.NA) rose over +3% after Bernstein upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform and named it its top pick among European semiconductor stocks this year.
The European economic data slate is mainly empty on Monday.
Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +1.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +2.97%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, surpassing the key 4,000 mark for the first time in nearly three months. Semiconductor and other AI-related stocks rallied on Monday. Bank of America analysts stated that innovation-led growth, particularly in AI and advanced manufacturing, could emerge as new drivers of growth despite structural challenges such as a property slump and weak income trends. Insurance and defense stocks also climbed. At the same time, energy stocks slid after the U.S. ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend, fueling concerns it could restrict China’s access to oil. Meanwhile, China’s yuan extended its gains on Monday, reaching a near 32-month high against the dollar, as the People’s Bank of China maintained a measured appreciation and seasonal demand for the currency remained strong. On the economic front, a private-sector survey released on Monday showed that China’s services activity grew at its slowest pace in six months in December, weighed down by slowing sales. Still, Citi analysts said China likely met the official economic growth target of around 5% last year. Investor attention now shifts to China’s December inflation data, scheduled for release on Friday, which will provide insight into the strength of domestic demand.
The Chinese December RatingDog Services PMI came in at 52.0, in line with expectations.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher and hit a more than 2-month high on the first trading day of 2026. Chip stocks were among the biggest gainers on Monday, tracking Friday’s rally in their U.S. peers. Also, defense stocks jumped on expectations of increased demand for military equipment after U.S. action in Venezuela over the weekend heightened the specter of greater geopolitical risks. “The U.S. capture of the Venezuelan president raised fears for geopolitical risks, but that became a tailwind for defence stocks,” said Kazuaki Shimada, chief strategist at IwaiCosmo Securities. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments evolve in line with its forecasts. “Wages and prices are highly likely to rise together moderately,” Ueda said, adding that adjusting the level of monetary support will help the economy achieve sustained growth. Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield climbed to a near three-decade high following Ueda’s remarks. On the economic front, a private-sector survey released on Monday showed that Japan’s manufacturing activity steadied in December, as demand fell at a slower pace than the previous month, snapping a five-month streak of contraction. Investor focus this week is on Japan’s wage data for November. In addition, the BOJ will convene its branch managers’ meeting and release its regional economic report this week. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +6.56% to 25.33.
The Japanese December au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 50.0 from the preliminary reading of 49.7.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Energy stocks rallied in pre-market trading after President Trump proposed a U.S.-led effort to revive Venezuela’s oil industry. SLB (SLB) is up nearly +10%. Also, Halliburton (HAL) is up more than +8%, and Chevron Corp. (CVX) is up over +7%.
Chip stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading, with Micron Technology (MU) rising over +3% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gaining more than +2%.
Intel (INTC) climbed over +4% in pre-market trading after Melius Research upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a $50 price target.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks advanced in pre-market trading, with the price of Bitcoin up more than +1%. Strategy (MSTR), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Coinbase (COIN) are up over +4%.
Uber Technologies (UBER) fell more than -1% in pre-market trading after Melius Research downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold with a $73 price target.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - January 5th
Park Aerospace (PKE), Lifecore Biomedical (LFCR), Hurco (HURC), Brookmount Explorations Inc (BMXI).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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