Stock Index Futures Turn Lower as Bond Yields Climb

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.15%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.14% this morning, giving up earlier gains driven by President Trump’s remarks on the Iran war as Treasury yields climbed.

The price of WTI crude slumped over -4% on Tuesday, adding to the prior session’s declines after President Trump said the war in Iran could end “very soon.” President Trump also said he would ease oil-related sanctions and promised that the U.S. Navy would provide escorts for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. He pledged to bomb “at a much, much harder level” if Iran were to disrupt oil supplies. Oil prices pared some of their losses after Iran’s state-run broadcaster reported an explosion involving an oil tanker near Abu Dhabi.

ING analysts said, “Trump’s words will only go so far. Ultimately, the market will need to see a resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to sustain a move lower in oil prices.”

The 10-year T-note yield climbed three basis points to 4.13% as the broader geopolitical backdrop remains fragile, with investors continuing to assess the impact of higher oil prices on inflation.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes erased earlier losses and closed higher. The Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Alphabet (GOOGL) and Nvidia (NVDA) rising over +2%. Also, AI-infrastructure and chip stocks rallied, with Sandisk (SNDK) surging more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and KLA Corp. (KLAC) climbing over +6%. In addition, Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) jumped more than +40% after Novo Nordisk agreed to sell its blockbusters Ozempic and Wegovy on the company’s platform. On the bearish side, Paramount Skydance (PSKY) sank over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Wells Fargo resumed coverage of the stock with an Underweight rating.

“We expect markets to stay very short-term focused, volatile, and headline-driven as the conflict plays out this week,” said Carol Schleif at BMO Private Wealth.

Meanwhile, short positions in U.S. exchange-traded funds climbed 8.3% last week, marking the largest increase since President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in April and the second-biggest surge in the past five years, according to the Goldman Sachs Prime Trading Desk.

Today, investors will focus on the National Association of Realtors’ existing home sales data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 3.89 million in February, compared to 3.91 million in January.

Investors will also be closely monitoring Oracle’s (ORCL) fiscal third-quarter results, due after the market close. Wall Street anticipates solid year-over-year sales growth, though at a slower pace than in previous quarters. Market participants will be watching for updates about Oracle and OpenAI scaling back plans to expand their data center project in Texas.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.3% chance of no rate change and a 2.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.13%, up +0.80%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +2.43% this morning as sentiment got a boost after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated the Iran war could be nearing an end. Bank stocks soared on Tuesday. Travel stocks also climbed. Energy stocks were the sole laggards, mirroring a slump in oil prices. Data released on Tuesday showed that German exports posted their steepest drop in more than a year and a half in January, tracking declines in industrial orders and output as momentum in Europe’s largest economy weakened at the start of the year. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Muller said on Tuesday that the likelihood of the central bank’s next move being a rate hike has risen, but there is no need to rush into any decision. Investors are now shifting their focus to speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis de Guindos scheduled for later in the day. In corporate news, Volkswagen AG (VOW3.D.DX) rose over +3% after the German automaker projected a margin recovery following a challenging 2025.

Germany’s Exports data was released today.

The German January Exports fell -2.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of -2.0% m/m.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.65%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +2.88%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, mirroring a regional rebound as investors turned more optimistic that the Middle East conflict could end soon following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump. Technology and new energy stocks outperformed on Tuesday. Sentiment was also buoyed by upbeat trade data from the country. The General Administration of Customs said on Tuesday that China’s exports jumped much more than expected in the January-February period, providing a solid lift to the world’s second-largest economy. Exports to Southeast Asia and the European Union surged at the start of the year, while shipments to the U.S. fell 11% year-over-year, but this was an improvement from last year’s 20% drop. The trade data also signaled a tentative rebound in domestic demand as imports jumped in the first two months of the year. Notably, China merges key economic indicators for January and February each year to smooth out distortions caused by the shifting timing of the Lunar New Year, which typically dampens activity. Pinpoint Asset Management’s Zhiwei Zhang said China’s continued export strength could delay the rollout of additional economic stimulus. In other news, Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday that China’s fiscal deficit is expected to narrow slightly to 7.3% of GDP in 2026 from 7.6% in 2025 as policy stimulus fades. In corporate news, Contemporary Amperex Technology climbed over +5% after the world’s largest EV battery maker posted a stronger-than-expected 2025 profit.

The Chinese January-February Trade Balance stood at $213.62 billion, stronger than expectations of $177.4 billion.

The Chinese January-February Exports rose +21.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +7.1% y/y.

The Chinese January-February Imports rose +19.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +6.3% y/y.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, recovering from Monday’s selloff as oil prices retreated after President Trump said the war with Iran would be over “very soon.” Japan imports around 90% of its oil from the Middle East, leaving its economy especially vulnerable to price surges and supply disruptions. However, with the Middle East conflict still unresolved, “the Japanese stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term,” warned Naoya Oshikubo, chief market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corp. Chip and AI-related stocks were among the biggest gainers on Tuesday. Industrial and mining stocks also climbed. In addition, bank stocks advanced, benefiting from a positive reassessment as investors largely anticipate another Bank of Japan rate hike by June. Revised data from the Cabinet Office on Tuesday showed that Japan’s economy expanded faster than initially estimated in the fourth quarter, driven by strong business investment. The data likely reinforce the BOJ’s position of continuing to tighten policy, although uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict adds a layer of unpredictability. Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week that the central bank will assess the impact of developments in the Middle East and proceed with rate hikes as appropriate. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday she hopes the central bank coordinates closely with the government to achieve its 2% inflation target, driven by wage growth rather than cost-push pressures. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -42.89% to 32.55.

The Japanese Q4 GDP Annualized was revised upward to +1.3% q/q from the initial estimate of +0.2% q/q.

The Japanese January Household Spending unexpectedly fell -2.5% m/m and -1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.8% m/m and +2.4% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks are edging higher in pre-market trading, with Tesla (TSLA) gaining over +1% and Amazon.com (AMZN) advancing about +0.5%.

Chip stocks advanced in pre-market trading, with Lam Research (LRCX) rising about +2% and Micron Technology (MU) gaining more than +1%.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) rose nearly +2% in pre-market trading after the IT company reported better-than-expected FQ1 adjusted EPS and issued above-consensus FQ2 revenue guidance.

U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) gained about +0.7% in pre-market trading after the world’s biggest contract chipmaker said revenue climbed 30% year-over-year in the first two months of 2026, supported by robust global AI demand.

Energy stocks fell in pre-market trading, with the price of WTI crude down more than -4%. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is down over -2% and Exxon Mobil (XOM) is down more than -1%.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - March 10th

Oracle (ORCL), AeroVironment (AVAV), Uranium Energy (UEC), ABM Industries (ABM), United Natural Foods (UNFI), Cadre Holdings (CDRE), Kohl's (KSS), Kodiak AI (KDK), Stagwell (STGW), IDT Corporation (IDT), Willis Lease Finance (WLFC), Infinity Natural Resources (INR), KalVista Pharmaceuticals (KALV), Evolv Technologies Holdings (EVLV), Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR), loanDepot (LDI), Pangaea Logistics Solutions (PANL), ADC Therapeutics (ADCT), Groupon (GRPN), Priority Technology Holdings (PRTH), Nature's Sunshine Products (NATR), Blend Labs (BLND), Global Indemnity Group, LLC (GBLI), SIGA Technologies (SIGA), Valhi (VHI), Westrock Coffee Company (WEST), Concrete Pumping Holdings (BBCP), Shoulder Innovations (SI), Citizens (CIA), SuRo Capital (SSSS), Inspired Entertainment (INSE), Finance of America Companies (FOA), Domo, Inc. (DOMO), Core Molding Technologies (CMT), Apyx Medical (APYX), KVH Industries (KVHI).