Stocks Supported by Lower Bond Yields

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.80%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.88%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.93%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.73%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.84%.

Stocks are higher today as bond yields fell on signs of a slowdown in the US labor market.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -1 bp to 4.20% after the ADP weekly employment change for the four weeks ended February 28 increased by +9,000, the smallest increase in five weeks, and a sign of a slowdown in hiring by US employers.

Stocks are being undercut today as crude oil prices rose after Iran renewed attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Middle East. WTI crude oil (CLJ26) is up more than +1% today after operations were suspended at the Shah gas field in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while Iranian drones and missiles also targeted an Iraqi oil field.  Also, crude loadings from the UAE’s port at Fujairah were halted again after Iranian drone attacks. 

The war with Iran is in its eighteenth day with no end in sight. Late Monday, President Trump said he will delay his summit later this month with Chinese President Xi Jinping in China until next month, saying it was important for him to remain in Washington to oversee the military operations against Iran.  Meanwhile, Mr. Trump renewed calls for other nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to expand strikes to Iranian oil infrastructure if Iran keeps up attacks on other Persian Gulf energy producers.

Crude oil prices remain high despite attempts to boost global supplies. The IEA last Wednesday released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

The 2-day FOMC meeting begins today, and market expectations are for the Fed to keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. With the Jan core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, at 3.1%, well above the Fed’s 2.0% target, the Fed is expected to signal an extended pause ahead. 

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the Tue/Wed policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.89%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.85%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.09%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.2 bp to 4.204%.  T-note prices shook off early losses and turned higher today after the weak ADP report signaled a slowdown in US employer hiring, which is dovish for Fed policy.

Gains in T-notes are limited today due to a +1% jump in WTI crude oil prices, which raises inflation expectations.  Also, supply pressures are negative for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $13 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -3.5 bp to 2.917%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -6.0 bp to 4.709%.

The German Mar ZEW survey expectations of economic growth index fell -58.8 to an 11-month low of -0.5, weaker than expectations of 39.2.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting this Thursday.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks are stronger today, supporting gains in the broader market.  Intuit (INTU) and Datadog (DDOG) are up more than +3%.  Also, International Business Machines (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Atlassian (TEAM), and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) are up more than +2%.

Chip stocks and AI-infrastructure companies are moving higher today, a supportive factor for the broader market.  ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Qualcomm (QCOM) is up more than +3%. Also, Marvell Technology (MRVL), Lam Research (LRCX), and Micron Technology (MU) are up more than +1%.   

Delta Air Lines (DAL) is up more than +5% to lead airline stocks higher after raising its Q1 revenue forecast to high-single-digit growth, up from a previous forecast of 5% to 7%.  Also, Alaska Air Group (ALK) is up more than +5%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) and American Airlines Group (AAL) are up more than +4%. In addition, Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than +3%. 

Companies that develop data center optical components are under pressure today after Nvidia CEO Huang said copper wires remain important in server racks.  As a result, Corning (GLW), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) are down more than -3%, and Ciena (CIEN) is down more than -1%. 

Lemonde Inc (LMND) is up more than +10% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $85. 

Uber Technologies (UBER) is up more than +5%, and Lyft (LYFT) is up more than +4% after Nvidia announced separate autonomous vehicle partnerships with the companies. 

Align Technology (ALGN) is up by more than +4% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $200.

Dover Corp (DOV) is up more than +3% after Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $230. 

Janus Henderson Group Plc (JHG) is up more than +2% after Victory Capital revised its bid to acquire the company.

Cencora (COR) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after the company said CFO James Cleary will retire on June 30.

Semtech (SMTC) is down more than -3% after forecasting Q1 adjusted EPS of 42 cents to 48 cents, the low end of the range below the consensus of 43 cents. 

Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) is down more than -3% after HSBC downgraded the stock to sell from hold with a price target of $850.

Earnings Reports(3/17/2026)

DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) and Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU).