Stocks See Support from Hopes for a Near-term US-Iran Peace Agreement

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.58%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.91%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.64%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.70%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.79%. 

Stocks are seeing support again today as reports circulate that an interim US-Iran peace agreement could be signed as early as this weekend, ending the military hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and ending the US blockade on Iran and its oil exports.  Negotiations would then begin on the more intractable issues, such as sanctions against Iran, the release of $24 billion of frozen Iranian assets, and the resolution of Iranian nuclear issues.  However, Iran said its leaders still need to make a final decision on the proposed interim peace deal.

Stocks surged on Thursday after President Trump said he canceled planned military strikes against Iran, citing "discussions" with Iranian leadership.  He added that a "time and place of the signing" of a negotiated end to the war would "be announced shortly," and the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz "will remain in full force and effect until this transaction is finalized." 

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) are down more than -3% today on hopes for a near-term US-Iran agreement and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

In positive news for stocks, the University of Michigan’s June US Consumer Sentiment Index rose +4.1 to 48.9, which was stronger than expectations for a rise to 46.0.  Also, the University of Michigan’s June 1-year inflation expectations rate eased to +4.6% from +4.8% in May, and was weaker than expectations of +4.9%.  The June 5-10 year inflation expectations rate eased to +3.4% from +3.9% in May, weaker than expectations of +3.8%.

The markets are discounting a zero percent chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.9%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.12%.  Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +2.81%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -3 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +1.6 bp at 4.477%.  T-notes are seeing weakness today as the 10-year inflation expectations rate is up +0.1 bp at 2.306%, despite today’s drop in oil prices.  The T-note market remains worried about inflation pressures, which are likely to remain sticky even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.  The T-note market has some carry-over weakness from Thursday, when demand was lackluster for the Treasury’s 30-year bond auction.

European government bond yields are trading lower.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -3.3 bp at 2.999%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -6.6 bp at 4.839%.

On Thursday, the ECB, as expected, raised the deposit facility rate by +25 bp to 2.25% from 2.00% and said, "The outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth." Swaps are discounting a 37% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.

US Stock Movers

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX), doing business as SpaceX, started trading today near $160 per share, up nearly +20% from Thursday’s IPO of $135.  The IPO was more than four times oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for the stock.  A strong showing by SpaceX today would be positive for investor sentiment and could help the upcoming IPOs for AI companies Anthropic and OpenAI.

Space-linked stocks are trading lower despite the favorable SpaceX debut, with EchoStar (SATS) down more than -9%, and Rocket Lab (RKLB) down more than -7%. 

Chip stocks recovered from early losses and are trading mostly higher.  The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up +2.25% today, adding to Thursday’s sharp rally of +8.39%.  Thursday’s rally was sparked by signs that AI spending is continuing after Oracle reported quarterly capital expenditures that were higher than expected, driven by increased data center spending.  Chip leaders today include Arm Holdings (ARM)with a gain of more than +10%, and gains of more than +5% in Qualcomm (QCOM), AMD (AMD), and Intel (INTC). 

Adobe (ADBE) is down more than -7% after CFO Dan Durn said he would leave the company on June 15, following news earlier this year that Adobe’s CEO would resign.  The Adobe news put continued downward pressure on software stocks, which were undercut on Thursday by negative earnings news from Oracle (ORCL).  Autodesk (ADSK) is down more than -3% and Intuit (INTU) is down by more than -2%.

Airline stocks are seeing continued support after oil prices today moved lower, adding to Thursday’s decline.  United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are all up more than +3%.

Energy stocks and service providers are trading higher with today’s continued sell-off in crude oil prices.  Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Valero (VLO), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are all up more than +2%.

Astera Labs (ALAB), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius Group (NBIS), Rocket Lab (RKLB), and Teradyn (TER) are seeing support today after Nasdaq announced on Thursday that those stocks will join the Nasdaq 100 Index, effective at the market open on June 22. Stocks leaving the Nasdaq 100 include Charter Communications (CHTR), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Insmed (INSM), Verisk Analytics (VRSK), and Zscaler (ZS).

Travelers (TRV) is seeing downward pressure after Barclays cut its rating on the stock to underweight from equal-weight due to a downbeat outlook for profits in the property and casualty sector.

Earnings Reports(6/12/2026)

America's Car-Mart Inc/TX (CRMT), Atlantic International Corp (ATLN), Friedman Industries Inc (FRD), Liberty Live Holdings Inc (LLYVA), Pioneer Bancorp Inc/NY (PBFS), Richtech Robotics Inc (RR), Seneca Foods Corp (SENEB), Whitestone REIT (WSR).