Stocks Set for Muted Open as Oil Rises on Hormuz Uncertainty, U.S. Inflation Data Awaited

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU26) are up +0.02%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU26) are up +0.12% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as oil prices rose amid growing doubts that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen anytime soon.

The price of WTI crude rose over +1% on Monday as Iran and Oman remained short of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran said on Sunday that a deal with Oman was in its “final stages,” it reiterated on Monday that the waterway would only reopen once Washington met a series of demands, including lifting its blockade of Iranian shipping and providing compensation for damages. Meanwhile, Houthi militants claimed an attack on a Saudi refinery near the Red Sea. U.S. President Donald Trump, in an interview with Axios on Sunday, indicated the U.S. was prepared to allow economic pressure on Iran to intensify rather than escalate militarily, saying the U.S. was only “semi-negotiating” with Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz.

This week, market participants are looking ahead to the release of key U.S. inflation data as well as earnings reports from several high-profile companies.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended in the green. Airbnb (ABNB) surged over +17% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the vacation rental site posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year revenue growth guidance. Also, Microchip Technology (MCHP) climbed more than +13% to lead chipmakers higher after it reported better-than-expected FQ1 results and issued FQ2 guidance that smashed Wall Street’s estimates. In addition, Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) popped over +35% after the collaborative software maker posted stronger-than-expected FQ4 results and issued above-consensus FQ1 revenue guidance. On the bearish side, Trade Desk (TTD) tumbled more than -21% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the advertising technology company reported downbeat Q2 results and gave weak Q3 revenue guidance.

The Labor Department’s report released on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23K in July, following a combined downward revision of 103K to the May and June figures. Economists had expected 85K jobs to be added. At the same time, the U.S. July unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 13-month low of 4.1%, stronger than expectations of no change at 4.2%. In addition, U.S. July average hourly earnings rose +0.1% m/m and +3.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.5% y/y. Finally, U.S. consumer credit rose by $14.2 billion in June, stronger than expectations of $11.4 billion.

“The latest jobs report was weak enough to take some pressure off the Fed to raise interest rates, but not yet weak enough to signal the economy is falling apart. Inflation remains a concern, but [Friday’s] data may give policymakers more reason to remain patient—and investors more room to lean into risk,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Friday that the labor market appears to be in a “weak balance,” continuing the low-hiring environment that has persisted over the past year. Barkin added that he is not seeing wage inflation right now and does not believe the labor market is contributing to price pressures.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 56.1% probability of no rate change and a 43.9% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in September.

The U.S. consumer inflation report for July will be the main highlight this week, particularly after the weak jobs report raised questions about the need for a Fed rate hike in the coming months. The June CPI report showed that both headline and underlying inflation eased to their lowest levels in several months, with July’s figures set to be scrutinized for signs that the moderation continues. Headline inflation is forecast to slow to +3.4% y/y in July, while core inflation is expected to ease to +2.5% y/y, marking the smallest increase since February. Readings in line with or below these forecasts would strengthen the case for the Fed to stay on hold. HSBC economists said they expect the CPI report to show “surprising softness across many core categories, leading both headline and core CPI to undershoot consensus expectations.” Additional insight into inflation will come from the U.S. Producer Price Index for July. Other noteworthy data releases include Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index (preliminary), Existing Home Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims.

Market participants will also closely monitor remarks from Fed officials. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin are scheduled to speak this week.

Second-quarter corporate earnings season is approaching the finish line, but several notable companies are due to report this week, including Applied Materials (AMAT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius Group (NBIS), and Coherent (COHR). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +29% jump in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year.

The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.66%, up +0.17%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.26% this morning, hitting a new record high at the start of a data-heavy week. Technology stocks led the gains on Monday, with Infineon Technologies (IFX.D.DX) rising over +3% after the chipmaker announced a time-limited share buyback program. Energy stocks also gained as oil prices rose amid growing doubts that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen anytime soon. At the same time, media stocks underperformed. Data released on Monday showed that the Sentix index measuring investor morale in the Eurozone moved back into positive territory in August and climbed for a fourth straight month, supported by a sharp improvement in current economic conditions and sustained optimism about the recovery. Investor focus this week is on a second estimate of second-quarter Eurozone GDP, which will offer updated insight into the Middle East conflict’s impact on growth. Final inflation data for July from Germany, Italy, Spain, and France, along with Eurozone trade figures for June and preliminary second-quarter employment data, will also attract attention. In addition, Norway’s central bank will announce its monetary policy decision this week. Norges Bank is widely expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at 4.25%, though investors will look for any clues on the path ahead. In corporate news, Plus500 (PLUS.LN) climbed over +6% after the online-trading platform increased shareholder returns and said it expects its 2026 results to meet current market expectations.

Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence Index was released today.

The Eurozone August Sentix Investor Confidence Index came in at 0.9, stronger than expectations of -0.7.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.67%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +2.08%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as soft inflation data bolstered expectations of fresh policy support for the economy. The National Bureau of Statistics said on Sunday that China’s consumer prices rose in July at their slowest pace in six months, while factory-gate inflation cooled for the first time since the Iran war erupted in late February. Both price gauges eased more than expected in July, pointing to weak domestic demand and reflecting the impact of extreme weather and lower oil prices. “Deflation risks in China could be rising again,” according to Citigroup economists. Consumer and real estate stocks advanced on Monday amid expectations of additional stimulus from Beijing. Nanhua Futures said that if July economic indicators weakened broadly, fresh stimulus measures are expected around the end of September. However, the Shanghai Composite Index’s gains were limited by weakness in the tech sector. Elsewhere, AI chip designer Moore Threads Technology plans to list in Hong Kong, as the company seeks to advance its internationalization strategy and strengthen its core competitiveness. In corporate news, Cambricon Technology slumped over -6% after the AI chipmaker reported a sharp slowdown in sequential revenue growth in Q2. Investor attention this week is on China’s money-supply and credit data for July, which will provide further insight into business investment and consumer demand in the world’s second-largest economy. Economists anticipate that credit growth will remain subdued.

The Chinese July CPI fell -0.1% m/m and rose +0.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +0.8% y/y.

The Chinese July PPI rose +3.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.9% y/y.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, tracking Friday’s gains on Wall Street after weak U.S. jobs data reduced expectations for a Fed rate hike. Chip and other AI-related stocks were among the biggest gainers on Monday. Healthcare stocks also climbed, led by a more than +19% jump in Sysmex after the medical diagnostics provider raised its full-year guidance. In addition, industrial stocks advanced. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields rose on Monday as investors assessed the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. A summary of opinions from the July BOJ meeting released on Monday showed that an increasing number of policymakers called for stronger action to address mounting inflation risks. At least three of the board’s nine members said the BOJ could accelerate the pace of rate hikes from its current rate of roughly two increases per year. Barclays economists said the BOJ is likely to hike rates in September rather than October, pointing to the hawkish tone of the summary. On the economic front, data showed on Monday that Japan posted a current account deficit in June for the first time in 17 months. Separately, data showed that Japan’s services sector sentiment index climbed to a 5-month high in July, although it remained well below the 50 mark that separates optimism from pessimism. In other corporate news, Recruit Holdings soared over +22% after the technology company boosted its annual guidance. Investor focus this week is on Japan’s PPI data for July, after the gauge accelerated a month earlier to its fastest pace in more than three years. The consensus forecast calls for producer prices to accelerate further in July. This would reflect continued price pressures from elevated energy and import costs, further amplified by a weaker yen, according to Lynn Song at ING. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -16.37% to 24.99.

The Japanese June Current Account n.s.a. stood at -0.092 trillion yen, weaker than expectations of 1.512 trillion yen.

The Japanese July Economy Watchers Current Index came in at 45.7, stronger than expectations of 44.6.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Most members of the Magnificent Seven edged higher in pre-market trading, with Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) rising about +0.8%.

Chip stocks advanced in pre-market trading, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) rising about +2% and Intel (INTC) gaining more than +1%.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) climbed over +5% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $69.

Critical-mineral stocks climbed in pre-market trading after the White House announced more than $2 billion in new mining and mining-related investments. 5E Advanced Materials (FEAM) was up over +26%, Standard Lithium (SLI) was up more than +14%, and American Resources (AREC) was up over +5%.

Apple (AAPL) fell more than -1% in pre-market trading after The Wall Street Journal reported that the iPhone maker was testing memory chips from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - August 10th

Simon Property Group (SPG), Barrick Mining (B), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Rocket Lab (RKLB), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO), Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), AECOM (ACM), AAON (AAON), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), Life360 (LIF), USA Rare Earth (USAR), California Resources (CRC), International Seaways (INSW), Archer Aviation (ACHR), CECO Environmental (CECO), National Health Investors (NHI), NIQ Global Intelligence (NIQ), Brookdale Senior Living (BKD), Plug Power (PLUG), EagleRock Land, LLC (EROK), Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), Medical Properties Trust (MPT), Helios Technologies (HLIO), GCM Grosvenor (GCMG), RUM Group (RUM), SELLAS Life Sciences Group (SLS), Keel Infrastructure (KEEL), Quantum Computing (QUBT), Surgery Partners (SGRY), Alamar Biosciences (ALMR), Sonida Senior Living (SNDA), Damora Therapeutics (DMRA), Septerna (SEPN), Target Hospitality (TH), Harrow (HROW), Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT), ArriVent BioPharma (AVBP), Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises (BW), ACV Auctions (ACVA), Lincoln Educational Services (LINC), Sharplink (SBET), WEBTOON Entertainment (WBTN), Upwork (UPWK), Entravision Communications (EVC), CEVA (CEVA), Sana Biotechnology (SANA), Replimune Group (REPL), Kayne Anderson BDC (KBDC), N-able (NABL), American Public Education (APEI), Red Violet (RDVT), HighPeak Energy (HPK), Aura Biosciences (AURA), JBG SMITH Properties (JBGS), Viant Technology (DSP), Bain Capital Specialty Finance (BCSF), Compass Diversified (CODI), Infinity Natural Resources (INR), OppFi (OPFI), Rapid7 (RPD), PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT), CeriBell (CBLL), Hallador Energy Company (HNRG), Immix Biopharma (IMMX), Tactile Systems Technology (TCMD), Cannae Holdings (CNNE), iHeartMedia (IHRT).