Stocks Settle Slightly Higher as Bond Yields Fall

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed up +0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.18%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) rose +0.03%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) rose +0.14%.

Stock indexes recovered from early losses on Friday and settled higher. Falling bond yields were bullish for stocks on Friday after US January consumer prices rose less than expected, which may prompt the Fed to keep cutting interest rates.  The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2.25-month low of 4.05% on the tame inflation news.

Also, a recovery in software stocks was supportive of the overall market.  However, metal companies retreated on reports that the Trump administration is working to narrow its tariffs on steel and aluminum products. 

Stocks initially moved lower today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting 1-week lows.  Worries over AI weighed on stocks and dampened market sentiment.  Concerns have surfaced that the latest tools released by Google, Anthropic, and other AI startups are already good enough to disrupt many sectors of the economy, including finance, logistics, software, and trucking.

US Jan CPI rose +2.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.5% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 7 months.  Jan core CPI rose +2.5% y/y, right on expectations and the smallest pace of increase in 4.75 years.

Q4 earnings season is in full swing, as more than two-thirds of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 76% of the 371 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 10% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets settled lower on Friday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by -0.43%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -1.26%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell closed down -1.21%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) on Friday closed up by +12 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -4.2 bp to 4.056%.  Mar T-notes climbed to a 2.25-month high on Friday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2.25-month low of 4.045%.  T-notes recovered from overnight losses and moved higher on the smaller-than-expected US Jan CPI increase, which is dovish for Fed policy.  Also, bond dealer short covering boosted T-note prices as dealers lifted short hedges placed in T-note futures this week to hedge against the $125 billion of T-note and T-bond sales in the Treasury’s quarterly refunding. 

European government bond yields moved lower on Friday.  The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 2.25-month low of 2.753% and finished down -2.4 bp to 2.755%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield slid to a 3.5-week low of 4.404% and finished down -3.6 bp to 4.416%.

The German Jan wholesale price index rose +0.9% m/m, the largest increase in a year.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks rallied on Friday, helping lift the broader market.  Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) closed up more than +4%, and ServiceNow (NOW) closed up more than +3%.  Also, Salesforce (CRM), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), and Oracle (ORCL) closed up more than +2%.  In addition, Adobe Systems (ADBE) closed up +0.54%, and Intuit (INTU) closed up +0.32%.   

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rose on Friday after Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rallied more than +4%.  Coinbase Global (COIN) closed up more than +16% to lead gainers in the S&P 500.  Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) closed up more than +9%, and Strategy (MSTR) closed up more than +8%.  In addition, Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed up more than +7%.

Metal companies retreated on Friday on reports that the Trump administration is working to narrow its tariffs on steel and aluminum products.  Century Aluminum (CENX) closed down more than -7%, and Steel Dynamics (STLD) closed down more than -4%.  Also, Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) and Nucor Corp (NUE) closed down more than -3%, and Alcoa (AA) closed down more than -1%.   

Tri Point Homes (TPH) closed up more than +26% after being acquired by Sumitomo Forestry for about $4.28 billion, or $47 a share. 

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) closed up more than +26% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.29 billion, above the consensus of $1.26 billion, and forecasting full-year vehicle deliveries of 62,000 to 67,000, the midpoint above the consensus of 63,402.

Maplebear (CART) closed up more than +9% after reporting Q4 total revenue of $992 million, stronger than the consensus of $971.8 million. 

Applied Materials (AMAT) closed up more than +8% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.38, better than the consensus of $2.21, and forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.44 to $2.84, stronger than the consensus of $2.29. 

Roku (ROKU) closed up more than +8% after reporting Q4 net revenue of $1.39 billion, above the consensus of $1.35 billion, and forecasting full-year net revenue of $5.50 billion, better than the consensus of $5.34 billion. 

Dexcom (DXCM) closed up more than +7% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.26 billion, better than the consensus of $1.25 billion.

Arista Networks (ANET) closed up more than +4% to lead gainers after reporting Q4 revenue of $2.49 billion, better than the consensus of $2.29 billion, and forecasting Q1 revenue of $2.6 billion, above the consensus of $2.39 billion.

Airbnb (ABNB) closed up more than +4% after reporting Q4 gross booking value of $20.4 billion, better than the consensus of $19.46 billion, and forecasting Q1 revenue of $2.59 billion to $2.63 billion, above the consensus of $2.54 billion.

Pinterest (PINS) closed down more than -16% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.32 billion, below the consensus of $1.33 billion, and forecasting Q1 revenue of $951 million to $971 million, weaker than the consensus of $980.9 million. 

DraftKings (DKNG) closed down more than -13% after forecasting full-year revenue of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion, well below the consensus of $7.32 billion. 

Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN) closed down more than -12% after reporting Q4 total revenue of $751.2 million, weaker than the consensus of $774.7 million. 

Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO) closed down more than -12% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.51, below the consensus of $2.71.

Constellation Brands (STZ) closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after announcing Nicholas Fink will succeed Bill Newlands as CEO, effective April 13

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) closed down more than -7% after CEO Harry Sommer stepped down immediately and was replaced by John Chidsey.

Expedia Group (EXPE) closed down more than -6% despite posting better-than-expected Q4 earnings after Bloomberg Intelligence warned that AI is “a long-term risk for the broader online travel industry.” 

Earnings Reports(2/17/2026)

Allegion plc (ALLE), Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR), Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS), Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP), Devon Energy Corp (DVN), DTE Energy Co (DTE), EQT Corp (EQT), Expand Energy Corp (EXE), FirstEnergy Corp (FE), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Kenvue Inc (KVUE), Labcorp Holdings Inc (LH), Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS), Medtronic PLC (MDT), Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW), Republic Services Inc (RSG), Vulcan Materials Co (VMC).