Stocks Climb on CPI and US-Iran Peace Hopes

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.15%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.29%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.35%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.15%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.38%.

Stock indexes are mostly higher today, with the S&P 500 posting a 5-week high and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 6-week high.  Easing inflation concerns are bullish for stocks after US consumer prices rose less than expected last month.  Also, hopes that this weekend’s negotiations between the US and Iran will lead to a diplomatic solution to the war are supporting stocks. 

Stocks are being undercut today by weakness in software stocks amid fears of AI disruption.  Also, the larger-than-expected decline in the University of Michigan US Apr consumer sentiment index to a record low is negative for stocks.

Crude prices are moving lower today, despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining essentially closed.  Traffic through the strait has shown little sign of a meaningful pickup since the US-Iran ceasefire began on Wednesday, as shipowners await clarification of its status. Hopes for an easing of hostilities in the Middle East are supporting stocks after Israel said it would open direct talks with Lebanon to discuss disarming Hezbollah and ending the conflict, with the US agreeing to host a meeting between both sides next week. 

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) remain volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses amid news headlines about Iran.  The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with Iran still restricting access and preventing energy flows to global markets. Iran’s deputy foreign minister said Thursday that oil tankers and other vessels seeking to transit the strait must communicate with Iranian authorities to ensure their safe passage.  There are more than 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf, with over 1,000 vessels waiting on both sides of the strait to transit. Before the war, the average daily volume of ships transiting through the strait was about 135.

US Mar CPI rose +3.3% y/y, the biggest increase in two years, but slightly below expectations of +3.4% y/y.  Mar core CPI rose +2.6% y/y, slightly below expectations of +2.7% y/y.

US Feb factory orders were unchanged m/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.2% m/m decline.

The University of Michigan US Apr consumer sentiment index fell -5.7 to a record low of 47.6 (data since 1978), weaker than expectations of 51.5.

The University of Michigan US Apr 1-year inflation expectations rose to an 8-month high of 4.8%, stronger than expectations of 4.2%.  The Apr  5-10 year inflation expectations rise to a 5-month high of 3.4%, right on expectations.

The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 5-week high and is up by +0.91%.  China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 3-week high and closed up +0.51%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a 5-week high and closed up +1.84%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down -3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.4 bp to 4.299%.  T-notes are moving lower today after US Mar CPI rose +3.3% y/y, the biggest increase in two years, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.  Also, strength in stocks today has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. In addition, the larger-than-expected increase in the University of Michigan's US Apr 1-year inflation expectations to an 8-month high is bearish for T-notes.  Limiting losses in T-notes today is lower crude oil prices, which ease inflation expectations. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +4.1 bp to 3.029%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +6.6 bp to 4.815%.

Swaps are discounting a 30% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers are moving higher today, boosting the overall market.  Broadcom (AVGO) is up more than +5%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +4%.  Also, ASML Holding NV (ASML) is up more than +3%, and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Nvidia (NVDA), and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +2%.  In addition, Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Applied Materials (AMAT) are up more than +1%. 

Lumentum Holdings (LITE) is up more than +2% to boost optical components makers after the company said demand from the biggest US tech companies is accelerating.  Also, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is up more than +10%, and Coherent (COHR) is up more than +5%.  In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100.

Software stocks were under pressure today on concerns about AI disruption after Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents and Meta Platforms unveiled a new artificial intelligence model. ServiceNow (NOW) and Datadog (DDOG) are down more than -7%.  Also, Autodesk (ADSK) is down more than -4%, and Salesforce (CRM) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, Intuit (INTU) is down more than -3%, and Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Atlassian (TEAM), and Adobe (ADBE) are down more than -2%. 

Cybersecurity stocks are retreating today, with Cloudflare (NET) down more than -14% and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) down more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) is down more than -7%, and Fortinet (FTNT), Zscaler (ZS), and Okta (OKTA) are down more than -4%. 

CoreWeave (CRWV) is up more than +14% after Anthropic PBC agreed to rent data center space from the company.

Shake Shack (SHAK) is up more than +2% after Mizuho Securities upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $120. 

Nutanix (NTNX) is down more than -6% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight. 

Technoglass (TGLS) is down more than -4% after cutting its 2026 adjusted Ebitda estimate to $225 million-$245 million from a previous forecast of $265 million-$305 million. 

Veeva Systems (VEEV) is down more than -3% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy. 

Earnings Reports(4/10/2026)

C&F Financial Corp (CFFI), FRP Holdings Inc (FRPH), Hingham Institution For Saving (HIFS), Hub Group Inc (HUBG), Innventure Inc (INV), Unity Bancorp Inc (UNTY), Utah Medical Products Inc (UTMD), Virtus Investment Partners Inc (VRTS), WaFd Inc (WAFD), XCF Global Inc (SAFX).