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Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Mar '19 (NQH19)

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Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Futures Market News and Commentary

U.S. Stock Indexes Settle Slightly Lower on Doubts About the U.S./Chinese Trade Deal

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) on Monday closed down -4.12 (-0.14%), the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) closed down -29.23 (-0.11%), and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) closed down -1.54 (-0.02%). U.S. stock indexes traded on both sides of unchanged and finally settled slightly lower on U.S./China trade concerns. Stock futures prices initially fell overnight on Bloomberg's report that China is balking at last Friday's US/Chinese trade agreement and on negative weekend news about the prospects for a Brexit deal this week. Stocks recovered and moved higher for a short time Monday on carry-over from last Friday's news that the Fed will start expanding its balance sheet by buying $60 billion of T-bills per month. The Fed's injection of reserves will improve money market liquidity and is supportive for stocks. Bloomberg reported Monday morning that China wants more talks by the end of October to resolve some sticking points before Chinese President Xi will sign last Friday's trade agreement at November's APEC Summit in Santiago, Chile. Bloomberg said that one of its sources also said that China wants President Trump to agree to scrap the December 15 tariff of 15% on $160 billion of Chinese goods as a precondition for a deal, which the U.S. has not yet agreed to do. President Trump has so far agreed to scrap only the hike in the tariff to 30% from 25% on the original $250 billion of Chinese goods that was otherwise due to take effect this Tuesday (Oct 15). Stock losses were limited Monday on upbeat comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin who spoke on CNBC and said the U.S. and China both made "substantial progress" last week in trade negotiations and that he "expects there will be deal" when President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping finalize the accord at a summit in Chile next month. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Johnson's Brexit proposal is running into problems in Brussels after the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said on Sunday that PM Johnson's Brexit proposal lacks detail and is not yet good enough as the basis for an agreement. Intensive talks are continuing to try to produce an agreement to be considered at the EU Summit this Thursday and Friday. If a Brexit agreement isn't reached by Saturday (Oct 19), the UK Parliament's Benn act requires PM Johnson to request an extension of the current Brexit deadline of Oct 31. On the negative side for stocks was Chinese trade news that was released Sunday night. China reported that Sep imports fell sharply by -8.5% y/y, which was weaker than expectations of -6.0% y/y and Aug's report of -5.6%. Sep exports fell by -3.2% y/y, which was weaker than expectations of -2.8% and Aug's report of -1.0%. The deterioration in China's imports and exports is bearish for the global economy and for Chinese commodity demand. Meanwhile, Monday's Eurozone Aug industrial production report of +0.4% m/m was slightly stronger than expectations of +0.3% and offset the -0.4% decline seen in July. However, Aug industrial production was down by -2.8% y/y, suggesting a contraction in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. The VIX S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) on Monday fell to a 2-1/2 week low Friday of 14.51% and finished the day down -1.01 at 14.57%. The VIX has fallen back from last Wednesday's 1-1/2 month high of 21.46% and continues to consolidate between the late-July 5-3/4 month low of 11.69% and the early-Aug 9-month high of 24.81%.

Contract Specifications

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E-Mini Nasdaq 100
Contract Size
$20 times Index
Tick Size
0.25 points ($5.00 per contact)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 3:15p.m.) CST
Point Value
First Notice Date
Expiration Date
03/15/19 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Mar '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 8, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
101,923 (+5,278)
112,645 (-2,366)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
66,677 (-8,374)
48,618 (+339)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
38,557 (+5,187)
39,878 (-5,871)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
76,449 (-8,618)
47,973 (+2,823)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
43,561 (+238)
51,492 (-817)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
3,157 (-328)
15,044 (+1,413)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
6,939.00 +4.78%
on 03/08/19
7,295.50 -0.34%
on 03/13/19
+206.60 (+2.92%)
since 02/15/19
5,820.50 +24.91%
on 12/26/18
7,295.50 -0.34%
on 03/13/19
+647.85 (+9.78%)
since 12/14/18
5,820.50 +24.91%
on 12/26/18
7,765.00 -6.37%
on 10/01/18
+112.35 (+1.57%)
since 03/15/18

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Stay in the know - Recent developments

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Buy with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Good. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 7,312.12
1st Resistance Point 7,291.23
Last Price 7,270.35s
1st Support Level 7,246.23
2nd Support Level 7,222.12

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52-Week High 7,765.00
Last Price 7,270.35s
Fibonacci 61.8% 7,022.20
Fibonacci 50% 6,792.75
Fibonacci 38.2% 6,563.30
52-Week Low 5,820.50

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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