Stocks Fall as Oil Prices Spike up to $100 Per Barrel

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -1.0%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.4%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.7%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.4%.

Stocks are trading lower as WTI crude oil prices are up more than +9% today, and temporarily traded above $100 per barrel.  Oil prices have moved sharply higher on fears of a drawn-out war in the Middle East and on Israel's bombing of 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday.  In addition, Saudi Arabia became the latest Middle East oil producer to cut production as its local storage facilities near capacity. 

Oil prices fell back from even sharper gains on overnight reports that G-7 finance ministers were discussing a possible joint release of oil reserves. However, the G-7 countries have since decided against a near-term coordinated release of strategic oil reserves.

Meanwhile, there is no end in sight for the Middle East war as Iran's Assembly of Experts over the weekend appointed hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new supreme leader, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  Iran’s new leader has close ties to Iran’s powerful and entrenched Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  President Trump said he is "not happy" with the choice of the new leader.

Stocks are also being undercut by ongoing worries about the US economy after last Friday's news that US Feb payrolls fell by -92,000 and that the Feb unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by +0.1 to 4.4%.  Also, US Jan retail sales fell by -0.2% m/m.

Q4 earnings season is nearly over, with more than 95% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 492 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 4% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets fell on Monday amid the fresh spike in oil prices.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -1.0%.  China's Shanghai Composite on Monday closed down -0.7%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed sharply lower by -5.2%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down -4.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.6 bp at 4.132%.  T-note prices are trading lower due to today's fresh upward spike in oil prices, which is inflationary and hawkish for Fed policy.  The 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate today is down -0.3 bp at 2.2350%, falling back from a 6-month high on the oil prices surge.

European government bond yields are higher.  The 10-year German bund yield is unchanged at 2.858%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +3.7 bp at 4.664%. 

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance of a -25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are trading mostly lower, led by declines of more than -2% in Tesla (TSLA), and more than -1% in Amazon.com (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META).

Oil stocks are trading mostly higher today on the oil-price surge to the $100 per barrel area, led by gains of more than +2% in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Devon Energy (DVN), and Diamondback Energy (FANG). Exxon (XOM) is up +0.8%, and Chevron (CVX) is up +0.2%. 

Airline stocks tumbled again today as crude oil prices surge, boosting jet fuel prices and undercutting airline profits.  United Airlines Holdings (UAL), American Airlines Group (AAL), and Alaska Air Group (ALK) are down more than -4%.

Defense stocks are trading mostly lower today amid long liquidation pressure and speculation that the latest spike in oil prices may prompt President Trump to end the Iran war sooner rather than later.  AeroVironment (AVAV) is down more than -4%.  Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) and General Dynamics (GD) are down more than -1%.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is up more than +30% after Novo confirmed it will sell Wegovy and Ozempic on the Hims & Hers platform.

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) is up more than +4% after Politico reported an antitrust settlement with the US Department of Justice under which the company will pay $200 million in damages.

Earnings Reports(3/9/2026)

Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE), Vail Resorts Inc (MTN).